NFL Week 5 trends and preview: why is it the year of the NFL underdog?

With four weeks of NFL chaos in the bag, injuries causing havoc and underdogs reigning supreme, what does Week 5 have in store?

Another week of NFL, another week of chaos.

After four weeks, the prevailing wisdom is that teams are finally rounding into shape and fans should have a better grasp on which teams are legit and which are frauds… but the word ‘should’ is doing a LOT of heavy lifting there.

So far this season has been as about as predictable as a chainsaw in a hot tub.

Which begs the question: amid all that continued chaos, is it the year of the underdog?

Because underdogs remain the reliable top dogs this season, with a pronounced decrease in scoring dominating NFL discourse.

Teams are scoring an average of 21.1 points per game, down from 21.8 last year and 23 ppg three years ago, which in turn means favourites are only covering the points spread at a dismal 45% rate… meaning underdogs are hitting at 55% (33-27-3) so far in 2024.

Essentially, less scoring means closer games and therefore more chances for the non-favourites to avoid blow outs and cover the spread.

Even when considering over-under lines this season, unders are hitting at 53.2%.

That sets up a fascinating Week 5 that sees both our first slate of byes and the first of three London games, as well as some excellent divisional match-ups. So Jaymz Clements from NFL Straya previews Week 5 of the 2024 NFL season above, breaking down all the games for the weekend ahead.

Tre Tucker of the Las Vegas Raiders scores a touchdown by Ronnie Hickman of the Cleveland Browns in Week 4 of the NFL. Picture: Jeff Bottari/Getty Images

Week 4 saw Denver, Indy, Tampa Bay, Washington, Las Vegas and, remarkably, the previously 3-0 Minnesota all go into their match-ups as underdogs and win outright.

Elsewhere, the Bengals finally got on the board with a win over hapless Carolina who weren’t able to ride the Red Rifle Andy Dalton to consecutive wins, while the Jacksonville Jaguars remain the NFL’s only winless squad, sitting at 0-4 and with massive questions hanging over both head coach Doug Pederson and quarterback Trevor Lawrence (and his flowing locks).

🚨 Week 5 Power Rankings 🚨 pic.twitter.com/4lJ2Fbl0Uk

— NFL on FOX Podcast (@NFLonFOXPod) October 1, 2024

On the flip side, the Kansas City Chiefs and Minnesota Vikings are the last standing unbeaten teams at 4-0, but the Chiefs saw yet another offensive weapon go down with Rashee Rice copping a brutal knee injury thanks to an ill-advised and executed tackle from teammate Patrick Mahomes, leaving the reigning champs looking threadbare at best on the offensive side of the ball.

The formerly-unbeaten teams of Buffalo, Pittsburgh and Seattle all had understandable dips, while the likes of Baltimore, Tampa Bay, Detroit and Washington asserted themselves with excellent wins.

The big stories going into Week 5 is the injury carnage both teams and fantasy owners are dealing with – aside from Rice, Indy running back Jonathan Taylor went down with an ankle injury, and the Miami Dolphins QB situation has hamstrung the likes of Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and DeVon Achane – but this is also do-or-die territory for a raft of 1-3 teams (Cleveland, Cincinnati, Miami) that headed into the season the playoff aspirations.

Chiefs (again) & the Vikings 🔥🔥🔥#NFL Week 4 Power Rankings - Final Part! pic.twitter.com/io3v2vqo1X

— NFL Straya (@NflStraya) October 3, 2024

Other playoff hopefuls that are 2-2 – like Dallas, San Francisco, Green Bay, Philadelphia, Indianapolis, New York Jets, Atlanta, New Orleans and Baltimore – will all be looking to surge above .500.

This week also sees the first bye weeks of season 2024, with the Eagles, Chargers, Titans and Detroit all with a week off.

As for the Aussie NFL players, Philly’s Jordan Mailata gets a needed rest week, Baltimore’s Daniel Faalele is slowly improving and the punters – Mitch Wishnowsky, Michael Dickson, Matthew Hayball and Tory Taylor are all out there kicking the skin off it, with Taylor in particular showing up massively for the Bears in their big win over the Rams.

Either way, Aussie NFL fans have a terrific Week 5 slate to dig into, so watch the NFL Straya breakdown to see who should win and why.

Will the divisional match-ups – Tampa Bay @ Atlanta, Baltimore @ Cincinnati, Miami @ New England, Indy @ Jacksonville, Vegas @ Denver, Arizona @ San Francisco – deliver fireworks?

Can the two 4-0 teams in KC and Minny stay unbeaten?

Is this it for Doug Pederson in Jacksonville?

Find out with NFL Straya’s NFL Week 5 preview and in the breakdown above.

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NFL WEEK 5 SCHEDULE

FRIDAY 10.15am AEST 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta

MONDAY 12.30am AEDT 

NY Jets @ Minnesota (London)

MONDAY 4am AEDT 

Baltimore @ Cincinnati

Miami @ New England

Indianapolis @ Jacksonville

Buffalo @ Houston

Cleveland @ Washington

Carolina @ Chicago

MONDAY 7.05am AEDT 

Arizona @ San Francisco

LV Raiders @ Denver

MONDAY 7.25am AEDT 

Green Bay @ LA Rams

NY Giants @ Seattle

MONDAY 11.20am AEDT 

Dallas @ Pittsburgh

TUESDAY 11.15am AEDT 

New Orleans @ Kansas City

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Originally published as NFL Week 5 trends and preview: why is it the year of the NFL underdog?