Wreck It Ralph: Has Geelong’s post-premiership bender turned into the mother of all hangovers?
What would Chris Scott have said if he was handed truth serum before his 10-minute press conference after a shock loss to the Suns? Wreck It Ralph takes a look.
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The version of Chris Scott that has launched a million memes as he flies into a coaching box rage is replaced by the mild-mannered model by the time he hits the ‘fifth’ quarter.
In his post-match press conferences, the lunatic is gone and the spin merchant is there in his place.
It is always entertaining, as Scott mixes some nuggets of gold with his version of the truth.
If we were expecting him to drop his bundle on April 2, after three consecutive losses so close to the club’s premiership success, Scott wasn’t having any of it.
But what would he have said if he was handed the truth serum before his 10-minute press conference on Sunday afternoon?
Wreck It Ralph dives deep into Geelong’s considerable issues as it tries to manufacture an honest translation of Chris Scott’s press conference after the 19-point defeat against Gold Coast.
What are Geelong’s most pressing issues and is this team the 2023 version of 2022 Richmond, who we believed would eventually flick the switch and yet never truly got going?
Jon Ralph identifies the 13 issues that would have Chris Scott most worried leading into Easter Monday.
FORWARD ISSUES
SCOTT: “There are some things that are really obvious to us and we went in with eyes wide open with a few of our guys that will get better as the year goes on … We fully expect bringing (Hawkins) in would help us structurally but he would be a little bit off where he would be when we get back to match fitness. A month into it we are confident he will start hitting his straps. There is an alternate strategy where we keep him out and he doesn‘t do any more or less than he is doing in games at the moment and I think it’s still a net positive to have him out there.”
RALPHY’S TRANSLATION: “We know Hawkins looks old but we don’t care what you think because we will keep playing him”.
Hawkins’ toe reconstruction still left time for a month of full training but a round 1 kick to the knee and calf has left him badly down on form and fitness.
He has kicked just three goals, rates below average for disposals and marks and is 43rd in accuracy of the top 50 forwards. In three rounds, he has just eight shots at goal for 3.4 compared to 8.5 at this time last year.
The alternative is to play Shannon Neale (two goals in the VFL) but Scott isn’t keen to do that. Don’t expect him to be managed for a mini pre-season now.
But with a kid like Neale in his side or Hawkins in current form, the Cats are hugely diminished.
TYSON STENGLE
All Australian Stengle has been goalless in his last two weeks, with his pressure below average to boot. Last year, he burst out of the blocks with 4.3 in round 1 but he has had just three shots at goal so far.
Geelong’s inside 50 differential is 11th, so it’s not great.
But the Cats are clearly getting enough ball to break even and instead Stengle has had only his second goalless fortnight in his time at the club.
THE MOSQUITO FLEET
One of Geelong’s great points of difference last year was the mosquito fleet’s talent, depth and versatility.
Brad Close was the hard-running high half forward, Stengle was the goal sneak, Gryan Miers was the clever goal sneak.
Miers is goalless so far this year and Close has just kicked one goal.
The Cats are 13th for scores per inside-50 entry, where last year they were first.
Time to get back to work …
THE MUDDLING MIDFIELD
SCOTT: “(Stoppages) was an area of concern for us. That is part of it for us. We can play a lot better in there. And there are some things we look at and say, ‘OK, there were going to be some teething problems with some of the shifts in there and then there are a few other guys we have a lot of faith in who are just a bit off’.
RALPHY’S TRANSLATION:“We knew the new additions to the midfield would take time but surely they would give us more than this …. Are we missing Joel Selwood even more than we knew?”
PATRICK DANGERFIELD
By Chris Scott’s estimation Dangerfield hasn’t been impactful given he hasn’t polled a vote yet in the AFL coaches award.
He is the new captain and he’s not changing the course of games so the heat will come.
But what is perplexing is why he isn’t playing forward at all, which has contributed to his drop in influence.
Dangerfield is still No. 1 in contested possessions and metres gained at the Cats, even if he has gone at less than 50 per cent kicking efficiency in two of his three games.
Dangerfield is playing only 70 per cent time on ground and only six per cent of game time forward.
The game’s best players now play forward-mid like Christian Petracca and Jordan De Goey.
Can Geelong not fit him into that front six with Oliver Henry as the third marking tall?
Does he have some kind of injury?
If not, time for Dangerfield to get cracking before the season is lost.
THE RAW NUMBERS
The Cats have the second-worst clearance differential in the entire league, rank 18th for contested possession differential and scored just one point from stoppages against Gold Coast.
It was their lowest number since Champion Data started keeping stats in 1999.
Tom Atkins has been reasonable but so much is left to him and Dangerfield, with Cam Guthrie playing 31 per cent in defence to replace the injured Mitch Duncan.
Dangerfield and Guthrie have averaged 19 centre bounces per game, Guthrie 15, Tanner Bruhn 10, Mark Blicavs 10 and Max Holmes nine.
As a collective, they are getting belted and it’s not immediately apparent how they turn it around.
THE NEW KIDS
Bruhn is battling big time.
The reality is that Geelong made a decision to play its new additions early to help grow synergy even if it didn’t help their early-season performances.
But none of them have made a meaningful impact so far and in fact are contributing to the 0-3 start to the season.
Bruhn has had 17, 12 and 10 possessions, averaged just two clearances, is ranked poor in disposals, contested possessions, clearances, metres gained and scoreboard impact.
Given his key role averaging 11 centre bounces, he’s not a liability but the Cats might need him to build form in the VFL.
Brandan Parfitt had 24 touches in the VFL and is surely ready for another chance.
JACK BOWES
The Cats were hopeful of playing Bowes as a centre square mid but, given their personnel issues, he has been a Jack of All Trades.
He has played 50 per cent defence, 14 per cent wing, 27 midfield and nine per cent forward.
He has little impact against the Suns but at least contributed eight tackles after five last week.
THE HUNGER
SCOTT: “We have always known even when we were going well, if you slip back a bit the comp is so tight that if you fall back a little bit you are at risk of losing every game you play.”
RALPHY’S TRANSLATION: “Have we lost the hunger? Maybe …”
THE DANGER SIGNS
Every premiership side needs to immediately prove there is no hangover. It is the nature of the beast.
The opportunities to make a dollar come thick and fast, with Jeremy Cameron and Dangerfield bombarding us with their new TV ads.
Cameron didn’t attempt to hide the reality that he celebrated the flag like an endless footy trip in a recent podcast.
“The celebrations just roll on, you know, like you’ve got to celebrate it. I remember getting to Bali a week later and just going: ‘I need to get out of here … I need to get off this Australian turf to go somewhere to get away from this.’
“I had nights where I had to just call it … you can’t just go for a week straight without sleeping. I had to have a few nights off, but even then, like you’re celebrating.
“We had the B&F Thursday and that was a big night and then the Friday, night as well go to the pub. What else have we got to do? The season’s over.”
Cameron will never regret those moments and has started the season as footy’s best player.
But, like Hawthorn in 2009 and the Western Bulldogs in 2017, the Cats have played like a team that has lost its edge.
GEELONG IS TORCHING THE FOOTY
SCOTT: “You are in a similar position to us in the coaches box. We have always tried to isolate our role and what can be changed from situations where it’s just a skill error. When it’s repetitive from players who you are used to seeing more from, it’s a bit difficult to understand. But the day I just blame the players and completely lose my mind is the time for me to give it up and I am not there yet.”
RALPHY’S TRANSLATION: “Any danger highly-paid players who won us a premiership last year might value their craft and start hitting some targets?”
WHO ARE THE CULPRITS
Champion Data’s kick rating takes into account the difficulty of kick rather than just kicking efficiency.
The guilty four for Geelong are Close (negative 26 per cent kick rating), Blicavs (negative 16 per cent), Jed Bews (negative 13 per cent) and Zach Guthrie (negative 11 per cent).
HOW DEEP IS THE HOLE GEELONG IS DIGGING?
SCOTT: “I can never tell three or four rounds in, in any given year who are the best teams. It takes time. I get it completely. If you fall too far behind you have to win more games in less time. It’s also true that if you win a lot of games in a row late, good things can happen and it’s possible.”
RALPHY’S TRANSLATION: We are still good enough given a back-end run of GMHBA games because our best is still better than most.
HISTORY LESSON
Scott is right in that the stacked fixture sees Geelong take on nine teams at GMHBA Stadium from round 6 onwards.
They are Sydney, Adelaide, Giants, Melbourne, North Melbourne, Essendon, Fremantle, Port Adelaide and the Western Bulldogs.
But since 2000, only seven teams which have started the season 0-3 have made finals with 56 missing September.
And since 2000 only one side has made finals from 0-4 with 33 missing.
That team was Sydney in 2017 and it made a semi-final but was cooked by the time it got there.
Similarly Geelong might not have the luxury of resting senior players or managing sore bodies if it remains behind the eight ball.
A team that had so many over-30s will have more injuries and that is where the Cats could be vulnerable mid-year if the injury toll continues.
THE INJURY TOLL
SCOTT: “We will get (Mitch) Duncan back and (Jake) Kolodjashnij back. When you fix one part of the ground things flow from there. We have had to plug a few holes which has contributed to us being a bit disjointed. If we execute a bit better with the ball we might say everything is fine and that wouldn’t be the case either. Part of the art of coaching is getting our coaching group together and being rational with the way we think about things.”
RALPHY’S TRANSLATION: “Slotting Kolodjashnij and Duncan back won’t fix us. We are so far off in too many important areas.”
Kolodjashnij played VFL on Sunday so should be ready for Easter Monday but his most recent concussion was his third in 12 months, which explains Geelong’s caution in slowly easing him out of the concussion protocol.
Jack Henry is slated for a mid-season return but, after his second major foot surgery, it is not a given he slots back into defence and picks up where he left off.
The ball is coming in so quickly into defence that a side that was last year first for scores per entry is this year 13th in that key statistic.
Sam De Koning entered the year with a knee injury, has suffered a serious of head knocks and is now in the concussion protocol.
So there are spotfires everywhere in defence.
Geelong has enough talent to turn around this disastrous start to the season but in a competition with few easy-beats and everyone hunting the premiers the Cats will have to defy history and likely win the flag from outside the top four.
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