Wildcard round proof AFL has jumped the shark in battle with NRL
The AFL’s radical new wildcard round has divided opinion among fans and commentators, but it’s proof the league has jumped the shark.
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The AFL’s thought bubble has burst.
The league has confirmed a “wildcard round” will be introduced in 2026, which will see 10 teams play in September action for the first time.
It’s safe to say many fans aren’t impressed.
Two additional elimination finals, 7th vs 10th and 8th vs 9th, will be played during the current pre-finals bye week to determine who makes the traditional top eight.
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Teams that finish in the top six on the ladder will have the usual pre-finals bye before the normal schedule commences.
With 18 teams currently in the AFL, it means more than half of the teams in the league will qualify for post-season games.
On Monday AFL CEO Andrew Dillon defended the concept and said a wildcard round win would officially count as a finals win. Sorry, what?
How will fans feel if Essendon finishes 10th on the ladder and wins a wildcard game before getting eliminated? Surely that wouldn’t be enough to break their infamous drought without a finals win going back to 2004.
Footy greats including Matthew Richardson and Warren Tredrea slammed wildcard round on Sunday, but Dillon is adamant it will be a success especially in light of the ever increasing number of wins required to make the top eight.
“If you look at the ladder over the last few years, and you see the teams that have been finishing in ninth and 10th, and this year’s a great example, you had the Bulldogs won well more than 50 per cent of the games, had a percentage of over 130,” he said.
The Western Bulldogs missed finals this season despite finishing with a 14-9 record and a large for-and-against percentage of 137.0.
Ironically it was the Bulldogs who benefited from the introduction of the pre-finals bye in 2016, when they became the first team in the AFL era to win the premiership from outside the top four.
The Dogs made the 2021 grand final from seventh, while the Brisbane Lions won four sudden death games on the trot to the win the 2024 premiership from fifth on the table.
Now the wildcard round will surely remove the benefit of the pre-finals bye that allowed teams in the bottom half of the top eight to make runs to the preliminary final or even go all the way.
The concept of a wildcard card has been floated for a couple of years, but most fans and commentators were taken by surprise by the announcement.
Nathan Buckley told news.com.au earlier this year he could see the AFL introducing a wildcard round in the future, but only when the league had grown to 20 teams when Tasmania and a Northern Territory team enter the competition.
Depending on how you feel about the concept — wildcard round is either a money-grabbing exercise that rewards mid-table mediocrity — or an innovative way to get more teams playing high stakes games and ensure clubs don’t throw away the season early in pursuit of a juicy draft pick.
It’s been a success in America, with the NFL’s wildcard round and the NBA’s play-in tournament boosting crowds and TV ratings without affecting the integrity of the playoffs.
Only seven wildcard teams have ever won the Super Bowl, while no NBA play-in team has ever won more than two games in a playoff series. But it works because there are 30 NBA teams and 32 NFL teams.
Generally it’s lambs to the slaughter, which is why it feels like a wildcard round in an 18-team competition is prioritising eyeballs and extra bums on seats over competitive unpredictability.
If a team ranked ninth or 10th on the ladder beats a team that finished seventh or eighth in wildcard round, it will open a can of worms and make some fanbases absolutely furious.
Dillon has struggled to put his stamp on the AFL since taking over from Gillon McLachlan two years ago — introducing Thursday night football across the entire season is the main achievement he can hang his hat on.
The league has repeatedly come under fire over inconsistent suspensions handed down by the Match Review Officer and AFL Tribunal, as well as the standard of umpiring across the board.
The AFL has looked to bolster its executive team, appointing veteran administrator Greg Swan as the new Executive General Manager of Football Performance and Tom Harley as the league’s new Chief Operating Officer.
Last month the AFL announced seven rule changes, most notably a last-touch out of bounds rule between the 50m arcs and the removal of the centre bounce and the much maligned substitute.
It’s become a running joke in football circles that the AFL can’t go six months without changing the rules of the game, and the whole wildcard round idea might have jumped the shark.
You’d think Darryl Kerrigan’s son from The Castle, Steven aka ‘the ideas man’, is sitting in on the AFL Commission meetings spouting thought bubbles while reading about jousting sticks in the Trading Post.
I see the @AFL have gone down the 'everyone gets a ribbon path.' Why stop at 10? Just push it to 12 teams, heck make it 14. You know what, bugger it, showcase as much mediocrity as you can by giving the entire 18 a finals spot. Meh.
— David Riccio (@DaveRic1) November 9, 2025
They’ve beaten us to it!! https://t.co/ZTEwWsyssj
— BUZZ ROTHFIELD (@BuzzRothfield) November 9, 2025
It’s hard to escape the feeling the AFL is intent on keeping up with rugby league’s own ideas man Peter V’landys, who has been credited with turning the NRL into a juggernaut with growing commercial pull.
The AFL will always have higher average crowd attendance than the NRL, but rugby league is winning the code wars when it comes to attracting a Gen Z fanbase, while the AFL risks putting rusted-on supporters offside.
It seems only a matter of time until the AFL Grand Final shifts to a twilight timeslot after the NRL Grand Final won the battle of the TV ratings this year, attracting an average audience of 4.46 million viewers to the AFL’s 4.18 million.
V’landys is squeezing the broadcasting lemon extremely hard and is intent on landing a record figure from the NRL’s next TV rights deal after the AFL got $4.5 billion in 2022.
Kane Cornes said fans needs to cool their jets, telling SEN: “People have just got to sit back, just calm down. Yes, it’s change and we don’t like change, the finals still start when the finals start, it keeps the season going for longer.
“And you know what? We get to watch hopefully a couple of good games when usually we’d be watching nothing.
“I don’t think there’s an issue with an extra game, trying to grow the game. The AFL has been criticised for letting the NRL for doing things and being innovative so we bring State of Origin back, we bring a Wildcard in, there’s Gather Round and they’re trying to do some things and they’re still criticised.
“They can’t really win when it comes to things like this, but sit back and you get two games of footy, your team gets their season to stay alive for longer and it absolutely rewards those that finish in the top six. “I don’t think it’s a bad thing.”
Dillon might need a more sensible wildcard idea to outdo the NRL.
Originally published as Wildcard round proof AFL has jumped the shark in battle with NRL
Rival star Dogs could target – and the deal to make it happen
