Which bottom nine club is closest to their next AFL premiership?
It’s season over for almost half the competition before round 19, but which of the AFL cellar-dwellers should still be excited? Mick McGuane ranks the bottom-nine sides closest to their next flag.
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They are the nine clubs who are all but out of the finals race this season.
But who can bounce and push for a premiership in coming years?
We asked AFL analyst Mick McGuane to get out his crystal ball and rank the current bottom-nine sides based on who is closest to a premiership – with some interesting results.
Here are the rankings, from the clubs Mick ranks closest to a premiership to those which are still a long way off lifting a cup.
CLOSEST TO FURTHEREST AWAY FROM A PREMIERSHIP RANKINGS
1. SYDNEY
The injury list has been Sydney’s biggest problem this year, but with an ounce of luck the Swans are capable of bouncing in 2026 and beyond.
The No. 1 scoring team last season, it’s no wonder Sydney has dropped off the pace when you look at their forward line.
Logan McDonald hasn’t played a game, Joel Amartey has managed just eight matches, Tom Papley has played six games and Hayden McLean has been inconsistent across his 14 matches.
The trio of talls need each other and McDonald is an aerobic beast who is so important as a link-up player higher up the ground.
Western Bulldogs forward Jamarra Ugle-Hagan has been linked to Sydney and could give that area of the ground an even bigger boost.
Ugle-Hagan would be a perfect fit on-field if he can get himself right off-field and the Swans are willing to back their culture and welfare team.
Errol Gulden (four games) and Callum Mills (six games) have also missed significant football this year but provide such flexibility and class through the midfield or across halfback.
Four of Sydney’s nine losses this season have come by nine points or less, so for the most part the Swans haven’t been far off the mark despite the injury issues first-year coach Dean Cox has faced.
2. PORT ADELAIDE
It hasn’t exactly been a dream baton change in Ken Hinkley’s final year as coach.
But many of the Power’s problems are fixable.
Historically, Port has been a strong contest, clearance and territory team which looks to generate deep entries in the direction of key forwards Charlie Dixon and Todd Marshall.
However, Dixon retired at the end of last year and Marshall has missed the entire 2025 campaign with an Achilles injury.
Earlier this year, the Power changed strategy by pushing up an extra forward to saturate stoppages.
That move left them exposed defensively, though, when they turned the ball over when entering their forward line.
Since they have got back to looking more like the Port Adelaide we have long known, they have performed quite a bit better.
Marshall’s a big watch going forward given his concussion history, but prized recruit and fellow key forward Jack Lukosius should make a difference in the years ahead after playing just four games due to injury this season.
Mitch Georgiades (45 goals) has been a star this season, but needs some support.
The recent signature of Miles Bergman was a big tick for the future, but Port must also retain Zak Butters, who is out of contract at the end of 2026.
I like some of Port’s kids, too.
Josh Sinn is being groomed to take over the Dan Houston role and will benefit from another pre-season, while Joe Berry is going to be a good small forward in time and Christian Moraes looks a real talent.
3. MELBOURNE
The Demons wanted to change the way they played this year and have made inroads in some areas.
But there’s more work to do.
Melbourne ranks second in the competition for contested possession differential this year and is fifth for moving the ball from defensive 50 to inside-50.
However, going the other way they have lost some of their stopping power.
Simon Goodwin’s side ranks 11th for defending opposition ball movement from defensive 50 to inside-50, 13th for points against from turnovers and 14th for points against from stoppages.
Their pressure has also been too inconsistent, with chasing and tackling of opponents left to too few.
There are plenty of questions still to be answered.
Will Clayton Oliver or Christian Petracca seek trades at the end of the year?
If they do move on, Melbourne could bring in some other stars who better fit their needs or gain significant draft capital.
Whether Max Gawn and Steven May are around long enough to make another premiership push is also unknown.
Both are 33 years old, but Gawn does not look to be slowing down and May still has some footy ahead of him if he can remain fit again.
What we do know is that Kysaiah Pickett is sticking around on a new long-term deal and he has taken his game to another level this season.
There’s also some exciting young talent coming through, including first-year midfielders Harvey Langford and Xavier Lindsay.
Harrison Petty needs to return to defence after his failed forward experiment and Jacob Van Rooyen has to step up in attack as he prepares to enter his fifth season next year.
Many of the pieces are there if Goodwin can get the most out of them.
4. ESSENDON
It’s been a season from hell for the Bombers, who have already used 41 players on their list and will roll out a 13th debutant this weekend in Liam McMahon.
But there has been a silver lining in that the injury crisis has forced Essendon to expose more players to AFL level than it otherwise would have, which should hold the club in a good position going forward.
I’ve liked the way mid-season draftee Lachlan Blakiston has gone about things down back since coming into the side, I’m a big fan of Angus Clarke, Zak Johnson, Vigo Visentini and despite only playing the solitary game when he got injured, Lewis Hayes showed some exciting signs in the small sample size we got to see.
What shakes out post-season will be interesting.
The Bombers would love to have Sam Draper and Nick Bryan head up their ruck department well into the future.
But both have rival interest and if Draper does decide to stay then Bryan may seek more opportunity elsewhere.
There are also some calls to make on players like Ben Hobbs, Archie Perkins, Jade Gresham and Jye Menzie, who don’t bring enough pressure in the forward half.
That hurts Essendon’s ability to restrict end-to-end opposition ball movement.
Whether or not Elijah Tsatas can become a rock solid AFL player rather than just a very good VFL player remains to be seen, but I’ve seen enough in Archie Roberts to suggest that he could be a key part of the side’s midfield in time.
In attack, Nate Caddy is coming on nicely as an exciting young key forward and small Isaac Kako will have more impact if can lift his pressure.
Captain Zach Merrett isn’t going anywhere despite the speculation and his ongoing leadership will be key in bringing this young group through.
5. CARLTON
The Blues have a bit of work to do with their list, which has some clear holes.
They need a Bailey Dale-like running defender with attacking flare and creative nous, because Adam
Saad has lost his own run and bounce off halfback.
They need a classy small forward who can hit the scoreboard, because Orazio Fantasia and Francis Evans are not the answer.
And they need a midfielder who oozes class and can use the ball well when going forward, because overall, they are a poor kicking team at present.
Coach Michael Voss has pointed to some positive numbers this year, including his side’s ball movement from defensive 50 to inside-50 which ranks third in the competition.
The Blues are also No. 1 for contested possession differential and rank fifth for inside-50 differential.
But there are also some bad numbers, including ranking 14th for points from stoppages – which was once their biggest strength.
If Tom De Koning leaves at the end of the year as is widely expected, can Marc Pittonet shoulder the ruck load and turn those numbers around? I’m not sure.
I’ve loved what I’ve seen from Ashton Moir this season, who looks to be a versatile player with forward craft.
He’s made some mistakes, but is a player who could be added to the Blues’ midfield / forward group to add a different dynamic in the not-too-distant future. He just needs to get himself super fit.
Hudson O’Keefe has also shown some early promise, while Brodie Kemp started the season strongly before his Achilles injury.
I’d certainly entertain moving Harry McKay on during the trade period if it gave Carlton the ability to address their list deficiencies, because the current group isn’t getting the job done.
6. ST KILDA
The Saints are a team that is evolving in front of our eyes.
But they’ve still got some issues to get right and coach Ross Lyon is still some way off putting together a list which can challenge for a premiership.
The reason why I’ve got the Saints below Essendon and Carlton centres around their defence.
While Anthony Caminiti has gone back, St Kilda is thin for key defenders after Josh Battle’s deflection to Hawthorn at the end of last year.
It’s why this side ranks 15th for points against this season – which is not typical of a Lyon-coached side.
It is imperative that the Saints secure Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera’s signature as the out-of-contract star weighs up his future.
The club is clearly into Carlton’s Tom De Koning, who would be a handy addition but not on the $1.7 million a year that is reported.
However, his expected arrival could push out Rowan Marshall as clubs like West Coast or Brisbane search for a healthy No. 1 ruckmen.
The St Kilda midfield is still a bit pedestrian, but it was good to see Marcus Windhager freed from his tagging duties and rack up 36 disposals last week.
Alix Tauru has already shown himself to be a player you can build a team around, while I also like Tobie Travaglia and Isaac Keeler is going to be a player once he builds his fitness base.
Key forward Max King hasn’t played this year due to more knee issues, but has just turned 25 and can still be a big part of the club’s future if he gets his body right.
Mattaes Phillipou also can play, but has managed just four games this year due to injury.
There’s some talent coming in the wings, but a lot of development to come and a couple of much needed signatures to get.
7. NORTH MELBOURNE
A potent forward line is the reason why I’ve got the Kangaroos ranked ahead of the Eagles and Tigers.
Nick Larkey (38 goals), Cam Zurhaar (32 goals) and Paul Curtis (28 goals) have all been hitting the scoreboard this year, in a team that has averaged only 45.9 inside-50s per game.
Larkey and Zurhaar are both still 27 years old with plenty of footy ahead of them, while Curtis is only 22.
But while that end of the ground is well stocked, the other end isn’t.
Charlie Comben has emerged as North Melbourne’s No. 1 key defender and I love the way he goes about it, but he needs some support because this Kangaroos are too easily scored against when the opposition goes forward.
Griffin Logue has played just 27 games across the past three seasons since arriving from Fremantle and isn’t the solution.
Wil Dawson is showing signs he could be a player of the future, but we haven’t seen enough yet of first-year key defender Matt Whitlock.
Unless the Kangaroos can secure a big fish down back in the trade or free agency period, their defensive woes are likely to continue for years to come.
Along with the forward line, a midfield group headed by Luke Davies-Uniacke, George Wardlaw, Harry Sheezel and Colby McKercher is a strength.
But can North Melbourne keep McKercher when a Tasmanian team enters the competition?
Ruckman Tristan Xerri is a fierce competitor, but I also question where the back-up is for him.
8. WEST COAST
It’s been a tough run for this mighty club, which has won just 11 games across the past four seasons.
But I think the Eagles are finally on an upward trajectory.
Under Andrew McQualter, the Eagles are adapting to a new game style quite nicely, playing surge football with speed of ball movement a priority.
If Harley Reid were to depart, it would be a setback.
The word I’m hearing is that Reid has built a strong and positive connection with McQualter, and he would find it hard to head home to Victoria after having a go at Jason Horne-Francis last weekend for going “back to mummy”.
Reid is also building a good on-field connection with Elijah Hewett and the pair are shouldering significant responsibility within the midfield group in a changing of the guard.
I like what Liam Baker has brought to the group in driving standards, while Jack Graham has also been a good addition aside from his terrible mistake which has cost him a four-week suspension.
Oscar Allen might be out the door as a free agent at the end of the season, which would give the Eagles the first two draft picks.
But Allen has already missed significant footy this year, along with fellow key forward Jake Waterman.
The injuries have provided opportunities for young key forwards including Jack Williams, Archer Reid and Jobe Shanahan, who all look capable at the level.
The likes of Tom Gross, Noah Long, Bo Allan and Rhett Bazzo have also got some ability.
So, the Eagles’ fortunes should slowly begin to turn.
9. RICHMOND
I’m not sure that the Tigers have bottomed out yet, despite the enormous changes that were made to the list last year.
Tom Lynch and Dion Prestia both turn 33 in October, Nathan Broad is 32, Nick Vlastuin and Kamdyn McIntosh are 31 and Toby Nankervis turns 31 in August.
There is going to be an exit of experience in the next couple of years.
Behind that group, Jacob Hopper and Tim Taranto will be left carrying the can.
While I love what Hopper and Taranto stand for, they don’t bring the ball use and creativity of the competition’s best midfielders.
Richmond would be hoping No. 1 draft pick Sam Lalor can develop into a midfield gun, but are we going to see the best of him at AFL level?
He’s never been a great runner and his repeat hamstring injuries this year have been concerning.
No. 7 draft pick Josh Smillie has been unsighted at senior level in his first season, having also suffered repeat hamstring injuries.
He’s a big-bodied midfielder, but there’s a question mark over whether players like him meet the modern demands of footy by getting up and down the ground.
There is upside in defence, with Campbell Gray and Jacob Blight joining Ben Miller and Noah Balta.
First-year key forwards Harry Armstrong, Tom Sims and Jonty Faull have all had a taste of senior footy but will take time to develop, while Taj Hotton is an exciting midfielder-forward.
The Tigers currently hold picks 2 and 3 in this year’s draft and if I were them I’d be looking closely at midfielder Dyson Sharp and ruckman Cooper Duff-Tytler.
They could also do with another rebounding halfback to partner with Tom Brown.
Originally published as Which bottom nine club is closest to their next AFL premiership?
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