Where can you club finish after Round 23? The ultimate guide to every scenario in the last round of 2019 home-and-away season
How can Richmond finish as minor premier? Would the Bulldogs hold onto eighth if they lost? We’ve crunched the numbers on every possible scenario for your team in Round 23 to find out the best and worse-case scenarios.
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Brisbane Lions hopes of clinching their first minor premiership in more than a century are not completely reliant on defeating Richmond in the last round of the home-and-away season.
As the Lions aim to end a hoodoo at the MCG and losing streak against the Tigers, a Herald Sun analysis reveals Brisbane could still finish on top of the ladder if results involving Carlton and Hawthorn fall its way.
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South Australian clubs Adelaide and Port Adelaide need plenty to go right to sneak into the finals, while Hawthorn needs to defeat West Coast and hope Adelaide overcomes Western Bulldogs in Ballarat.
The numbers might sound complicated, but don’t fret.
We’ve got you covered with every possible scenario for your team and where they could finish.
1 BRISBANE LIONS
64 120.9%
Potential finish: 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
v 4th Richmond, MCG.
Sunday, 3.20pm
If Brisbane wins …
1st
If Brisbane loses …
1st: If Richmond defeats Brisbane by less than 63 points, PLUS Carlton defeats Geelong, PLUS Hawthorn defeats West Coast — or West Coast wins but the Eagles’ winning margin and Brisbane's’ losing margin total fewer than 74 points
2nd: Only two of these scenarios occur
3rd: Only one occurs
4th: None occurs
2 GEELONG
60 132.4%
Potential finish: 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
v 16th Carlton, GMHBA.
Saturday, 4.35pm
If Geelong wins …
1st: Richmond def Brisbane
2nd: Brisbane def Richmond
If Geelong loses …
2nd: Hawthorn def West Coast, PLUS Brisbane def Richmond
3rd: Only one of these results occurs
4th Neither occurs
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3 WEST COAST
60 115.7%
Potential finish: 1 2 3 4 5
v 9th Hawthorn, Optus Stadium.
Saturday, 8.10pm
If the Eagles win …
1st: If all three of these scenarios occur: Richmond def Brisbane — and West Coast and Richmond’s winning margins total at least 74 points (this will put Brisbane below West Coast), PLUS Richmond def Brisbane — but Richmond’s winning margin is not more than 48 points bigger than West Coast’s (this will keep Richmond below West Coast), PLUS Carlton def Geelong
2nd: Only two of these scenarios occur
3rd: Only one occurs
4th: None occurs
If the Eagles lose …
3rd: Brisbane def Richmond, PLUS Essendon def Collingwood
4th: Only one of these results occurs
5th: Neither occurs
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4 RICHMOND
60 112.5%
Potential finish: 1 2 3 4 5
v 1st Brisbane Lions, MCG,
Sunday, 3.20pm
If the Tigers win …
1st: If all three of these scenarios occur: Richmond def Brisbane by at least 63 points, PLUS Carlton def Geelong, PLUS Hawthorn def West Coast — or West Coast wins but Richmond wins by at least 49 points more than West Coast wins
2nd: Only two of these scenarios occur
3rd: Only one occurs
4th: None occurs
If the Tigers lose …
3rd: Hawthorn def West Coast — and West Coast loses by at least 51 points more than Richmond, PLUS Essendon def Collingwood
4th: Only one of these results occurs
5th: Neither occurs
5 COLLINGWOOD
56 117.8%
Potential finish: 3 4 5
v 7th Essendon, MCG,
Friday, 7.50pm
If the Magpies win …
3rd: Hawthorn def West Coast, PLUS Brisbane def Richmond
4th: Only one of these results occurs
5th: Neither occurs
If the Magpies lose …
5th
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6 GWS GIANTS
48 111.5%
Potential finish: 6 7 8
v 18th Gold Coast, Metricon Stadium,
Saturday, 7.25pm
If the Giants win …
6th
If the Giants lose …
6th: Collingwood def Essendon, PLUS Adelaide def Bulldogs — or Dogs win but their winning margin and GWS’s losing margin total less than 94 points
7th: Only one of these results occurs
8th: Neither occurs
7 ESSENDON
48 95.8%
Potential finish: 6 7 8
v 5th Collingwood, MCG,
Friday, 7.50pm
If the Bombers win …
6th: Gold Coast def GWS
7th: GWS def Gold Coast
If the Bombers lose …
7th: Adelaide def Bulldogs
8th: Bulldogs def Adelaide
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8 WESTERN BULLDOGS
44 105.6%
Potential finish: 6 7 8 9 10 11
v 10th Adelaide, Mars Stadium,
Ballarat, Sunday, 1.10pm
If the Bulldogs win …
6th: Gold Coast def GWS — and the Bulldogs’ winning margin and GWS’s losing margin total at least 94 points, PLUS Collingwood def Essendon
7th: Only one of these results occurs
8th: Neither occurs
If the Bulldogs lose:
8th: If all three of these scenarios occur: Bulldogs lose by less than 22 points, West Coast def Hawthorn, Fremantle def Port Adelaide — or Port wins but Port’s winning margin and Bulldog’ losing margin total less than 44 points
9th: or lower unless all three of the above occur
9 HAWTHORN
40 106.6%
Potential finish: 8 9 10 11 12
v 3rd West Coast Eagles, Perth Oval,
Saturday, 8.10pm
If the Hawks win …
8th: Adelaide def Bulldogs — but Adelaide’s winning margin is not 59 points more than
Hawthorn’s, PLUS Fremantle def Port Adelaide — or Port wins, but its winning margin is not at least 61 points more than Hawthorn’s
9th: or lower unless both of the above occur
If the Hawks lose …
9th: or lower
10 ADELAIDE
40 103%
Potential finish: 8 9 10 11 12
v 8th Western Bulldogs, Mars Stadium,
Ballarat, Sunday, 1.10pm
If the Crows win …
8th: If all three of these scenarios occur: Adelaide def Bulldogs by at least 22 points, West Coast def Hawthorn — or Hawthorn wins but Adelaide wins by at least 59 points more than Hawthorn
Fremantle def Port Adelaide — or Port wins but by no more than 1 point more than Adelaide wins (if Adelaide wins by more than 40 points, Port would need to win by 2 points more)
9th: or lower Unless all three of the above occur
If the Hawks lose …
10th: or lower
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11 PORT ADELAIDE
40 103%
Potential finish: 8 9 10 11 12
v 12th Fremantle, Adelaide Oval,
Sunday, 4.40pm
If the Power wins …
8th: Adelaide def Bulldogs (by at least 22 points), PLUS Port Adelaide wins by at least one point more than Adelaide wins (if Adelaide wins by more than 40 points, Port must win by at least two points more), PLUS West Coast def Hawthorn — or Hawthorn wins but Port wins by at least 61 points more than Hawthorn does
9th: or lower Unless both of the above occur
If the Power loses …
10 or lower
*Drawn results have not been included
Originally published as Where can you club finish after Round 23? The ultimate guide to every scenario in the last round of 2019 home-and-away season
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