Where 2023 grand finalists Collingwood and Brisbane are going wrong
Collingwood was one of the competition’s best at forcing a turnover and moving the ball with serious pace in 2023, but this year opposition teams are similarly punishing them the other way.
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Collingwood and Brisbane were a part of history at the weekend when both sides started the year 0-2 after making a grand final the season before.
It had never happened in VFL/AFL history previously, and with just 18 per cent of 0-2 teams clawing their way back to finals since 1999 (20-94), history is against both clubs.
Here’s what’s going wrong for the Pies and the Lions, and how they can defy that history and work their way back up the ladder.
MISFIRING MAGPIES: HOW REIGNING PREMIER CAN GET BACK TO TOP
Craig McRae was quick to dismiss the notion of a premiership hangover after the Magpies’ spluttering start to the season.
The Magpies aren’t the only reigning premiers in recent history to have a poor start and ultimately miss finals: Geelong stumbled out of the gates in 2023, recording its first win over Hawthorn in round 4 after trailing at half time.
But luckily for McRae, there have been some clear issues the Magpies can address to get their season back on track.
Their pressure is under pressure
Their inability to stop the Swans’ ball movement, particularly in the defensive half, was unlike the Magpies of 2023.
Collingwood conceded 78 of Sydney’s total of 102 from turnovers, with 47 of those 78 points coming in the defensive half; both the third worst in McRae’s coaching tenure.
The Magpies also lost the tackle count to the Swans by 21, which is the biggest discrepancy under McRae.
Collingwood was one of the competition’s best at forcing a turnover and moving the ball with serious pace in 2023, catching teams off guard as they surged forward with forward handballs and dangerous kicks.
However, teams so far in 2024 have used a similar method against the Magpies, causing turnovers and beating the defenders on the way back to goal.
Logan McDonald kicked two goals from the goal square, and one from a snap after a mark inside the behind line, while Justin McInerney also waltzed into an open goal square to boot a major.
Whether it is a lack of effort, cohesion or communication from Collingwood’s defence, but it is an area skipper Darcy Moore needs to get on top of.
Intercept defenders, not lockdown defenders, are the trend but not the answer
Nathan Murphy remains out of the side as he makes a long return from his complex concussion battle, and his absence is clearly an issue for Collingwood.
The Magpies have turned to Charlie Dean to replace the lockdown key defender, and with the 2021 Fothergill-Round-Mitchell Medallist is just two games into his AFL career, he is under-experienced in an overwhelmed defensive unit.
In a backline that is both under fire and undermanned, it would be expected that Moore would help his embattled teammates, however the Collingwood captain is yet to be involved in a one-on-one contest.
Jeremy Howe, who missed the opening round loss to the Giants, did not contest one either in the loss to the Swans, while Dean is yet to win one of his contests in 2024.
Murphy won 32 per cent of his one-on-one contests in 2023.
The inability to win, or in Moore and Howe’s cases contend, a marking contest led to a shockingly-high 19 inside 50 marks for Sydney (the AFL average is 12), with Logan McDonald (5), Isaac Heeney (4), Joel Amartey (3), Chad Warner (2) and Tom Papley (2) all feasting on the Magpies’ inefficiencies in the air.
A new forward 50 answer
At the other end of the ground, Collingwood is still trying to find an answer to Dan McStay’s replacement.
While the key forward has made remarkable progress from his ACL surgery late last year, with McStay running and kicking footballs already, the Magpies have not solved the hole in the forward line.
Ash Johnson has played the opening two games of the season, but was subbed out of the Swans game with just three disposals, one mark and 0.1 in more than a half of football, while only recording two touches, one mark and no scores in a full match against the Giants.
Mason Cox has failed to provide a valuable marking target up forward, with five touches in opening round and 12 disposals in round 1.
He is yet to kick a goal this season.
Reef McInnes was touted as an option during the pre-season, having booted 32 goals in 15 VFL matches last year (including 11 in the final three games of the season) and impressing over the summer.
McInnes slotted two goals against North Melbourne in a practice match in the pre-season but missed selection to start the season, and could be brought in to replace a disappointing Johnson.
BACK TO FRONT: BRISBANE’S BIG PROBLEMS AT BOTH ENDS
Inexplicable as it may seem, Brisbane will welcome its early season bye week as coach Chris Fagan ponders how to right the ship of his flailing flag contenders in time to host Collingwood at the Gabba on Easter Thursday.
The Magpies have their own conundrums to work out but the Lions are a curious case after consecutive defeats to Carlton and Fremantle.
The gloss on a promising pre-season has come off after being stunned by a Dockers side that limped over the line despite a spate of injuries during the match.
The 23-point margin probably favoured the Lions, who aside from a 10-minute purple patch in the opening term were thoroughly outclassed by a side few predicted to feature in finals calculations this season.
Fagan has concerns to address at both ends of the field and a week off to go over his blueprint could be just what the doctor ordered.
The team that has built its identity on kicking big scores through weight of inside 50 entries is suddenly struggling to do so.
Brisbane’s coach is a big stats man and the numbers out of Sunday’s game will have him scratching his head.
The Lions were plus-8 inside 50s against Fremantle a week after leading Carlton by 13 in the same category, yet find themselves without a win to show for it.
After the opening two rounds their inside 50 efficiency – shots on goal per forward 50 entry – sits below 40 per cent.
That is not only well below the AFL average, but last season would have ranked them dead last in that category.
In 2023 only Adelaide was more efficient than Brisbane when going inside 50.
Something just isn’t clicking.
But the biggest headache might now be down back, with a mounting injury toll wreaking havoc on a defensive group that last season was among the healthiest in the league.
Keidean Coleman’s season-ending ACL injury against Carlton came as a dagger blow and now, after injuries to Conor McKenna (hamstring) and Darcy Gardiner (PCL) the Lions are suddenly light-on in the defensive 50.
For a second-straight week they conceded eight consecutive goals, something that only happened once in 2023 (Round 1 v Port Adelaide) and not at all in 2022.
Jack Payne had a shocker against the Blues and was dropped for the trip to WA, but could be in line for a quick recall after the Gardiner injury.
Meanwhile off-season recruit Tom Doedee is on track to put his hand up to face the Magpies and would be a big name addition to the back six, though whether he comes straight back in or via the VFL remains to be seen.
In a perfect world the Lions would not be desperate for Doedee’s services straight out the gate, but after middling displays against the Blues and Dockers the back six may need a freshen up.
Coleman’s injury in particular is a major blow to Brisbane’s ball movement out of defensive 50 and could be a partial reason for the scoring woes.
The Lions desperately need a player with his creativity setting up the play through rebound 50s.
Veteran Dayne Zorko has been among their best so far this season rotating between the midfield and forward, however the 35-year-old showed last season he can play that creative role across halfback if needed.
He was moved back in the final quarter against Fremantle and helped spark the Lions’ five-goal final term.
Fagan suddenly has a puzzle to solve and the solution is not obvious.
Thankfully, he has a week off to move his pieces around before a date with Collingwood on Easter Thursday that could make or break the Lions’ season.
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