AFL Trades State of Play: Where every deal is at and what to expect ahead of deadline
The clock is ticking with just three days until this year’s AFL Trade deadline – and a lot of players still in limbo. Get the inside word on where every deal is at.
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A number of significant deals went down in the first week of the AFL’s exchange period – along with a few surprises, too.
But there’s still so much more to play out ahead of the trade deadline at 7.30pm (aest) on Wednesday.
Sam Landsberger, Marc McGowan and Glenn McFarlane look at what might – or might not –happen in the second week.
PIES, CATS STILL AT ODDS OVER OLLIE
Collingwood has attempted to secure the No. 7 draft pick that Geelong is certain to receive from Gold Coast as part of a trade that would send Oliver Henry to Geelong.
But the Cats have declared the prized selection off-limits and want to take what would be their highest pick in 16 years to the national draft. Collingwood’s proposed deal would’ve seen Henry and picks 16 and 41 go to Geelong in exchange for No. 7 and 25.
The clubs remain a fair way apart with Henry’s anticipated move to join brother and premiership defender Jack Henry at the Cats in limbo. The Magpies secured flashy goalkicker Henry with the No. 17 pick just two years ago.
JACKO DEAL TO GO TO THE WIRE
The Luke Jackson to Fremantle trade has Wednesday night written all over it.
Fremantle has offered Melbourne pick 13 and a future first-round selection for Jackson, the Rising Star winner and a premiership ruckman last year who just turned 21.
The Demons want a top-10 pick this year, ideally in the first seven, as well as the 2023 first-rounder, which is why the clubs are currently engaged in a Mexican standoff.
West Coast is waiting in the wings but isn’t considered a genuine contender for Jackson.
The expectation is this deal will get done, but which of Fremantle or Melbourne will blink first?
BRODIE DEAL WAITS ON JACKSON
Brodie Grundy almost certainly won’t join the Dees until the 2021 premiers reach an agreement for Luke Jackson to become a Docker.
Melbourne’s pick 27, which was gained in a pick swap with Port Adelaide, will be involved in the deal, which will see Collingwood pay up to $300,000 annually in the final five years of Grundy’s hefty contract.
But the Magpies are keen for a higher selection, which the Demons aren’t willing to offer at this stage.
There were whispers early in the week that Collingwood wanted a pick slide on top of 27 that rested on Melbourne receiving Fremantle’s pick 13 in the Jackson deal.
That would have seen the Dees on-trade 13 and 27 to the Pies for Grundy and 16.
BOMBERS SET ON WILL
Essendon will secure Carlton midfielder Will Setterfield, six years after the Bombers considered drafting him with the No. 1 pick. In 2016 they whittled their choice down to three 18-year-olds – Andy McGrath, Hugh McCluggage and Setterfield, ranking them above Tim Taranto, who was drafted with the No. 2 pick.
List boss Adrian Dodoro explained to the Herald Sun at the time why he loved those three midfielders. On Setterfield, who was drafted at No. 5 to the Giants as an academy player, Dodoro said: “Will’s 190cm, we haven’t seen the best of him due to some injuries, but when he was ready to take off this year he was best-on-ground in the first final. He’s a different type – he’s a taller mid, he can play forward, he plays inside and he’s got a huge engine. I think the scope for him is enormous.”
Setterfield, who has played 57 AFL games, laid 16 tackles and won 10 clearances in that TAC Cup final and will join the Bombers in exchange for a late draft pick. The Blues used Setterfield on the wing this year, but you can bank on the 24-year-old playing as a big inside midfielder in new coach Brad Scott’s round 1 team as a shrewd pick up.
SUNS OUT OF DUNKS RACE
Josh Dunkley’s manager said on Saturday that “he wants to move to Queensland” — but you can rule out Gold Coast Suns attempting to swoop on the reigning best-and-fairest winner as the standoff between Western Bulldogs and Brisbane Lions threatens to test Wednesday’s 7.30pm trade deadline.
Former Hawthorn coach Alastair Clarkson once attempted a raid when trade talks between St Kilda and Essendon broke down over Jake Carlisle. Clarkson arrived unannounced at Carlisle’s Florida hotel but he turned down the Hawks’ offer and was eventually traded to the Saints. But the Suns are not interested in stepping in, leaving the Dogs three days to broker a fair trade or send Dunkley to the draft.
For what it’s worth, respected recruiters reckon a fair price is probably a first-round pick and a second-round pick. The Lions do still have No. 21 (second-round) and their 2023 first-rounder.
LIONS SWAN-SONG?
Brisbane has made headlines for trading out picks 15 and 25 as negotiations with Western Bulldogs over Josh Dunkley hit an impasse. But there could be a far more significant departure from the Lions than a couple of top-30 picks.
They are navigating the trade period without senior coach Chris Fagan, who is on a leave absence, and soon they could be without a chief executive on the back of the Andrew Thorburn debacle at Essendon.
Respected Lions club boss Greg Swann is understood to be the No.1 candidate to replace Thorburn, and Xavier Campbell, as Essendon‘s third chief executive this off-season.
FRANCIS ON THE MOVE
The Bombers are expected to receive a future third-round selection for Aaron Francis, who will be traded to Sydney. Francis was taken with the Jake Carlisle pick in 2015 but never really settled at Tullamarine and requested a trade home to South Australia in 2017.
The Bombers held on to him for five more years. But after only 54 AFL games he wants a fresh start as a Swan, which revitalised No. 1 pick Paddy McCartin’s career this season.
It will be in: Setterfield, out: Francis and they are likely to be Essendon’s only two trades this year before it zeroes in on junior stars with picks No. 4 and 22 in next month’s national draft. Setterfield was the No.5 pick in 2016 and Francis was the No.6 pick in 2015.
TOM A PIE?
The expectation remains that Hawthorn’s 2018 Brownlow medallist Tom Mitchell will end up at Collingwood by Wednesday night.
Mitchell’s midfield time lessened this year as new coach Sam Mitchell prioritised a greater spread of contributors, including blooding more kids.
The 29-year-old didn’t enjoy the team success he probably thought was coming when he left Sydney and isn’t getting any younger, so the Pies look a good fit because they need midfield help.
A second-round pick seems about the right price but, as it stands, Collingwood doesn’t have one in this year’s draft or in 2023.
CHASING CADMAN
Greater Western Sydney is about to get the draft haul from heaven and hasn’t given up hope of prising the No.1 draft pick off the Kangaroos to potentially chase Vic Country key forward Aaron Cadman.
But the Giants might do well to hand off its vacant No.5 jumper to a ready-made, established Giant rather than one of its 2022 draftees.
You see all three Giants to have worn No.5 since the club’s inception a decade ago have moved onto new AFL clubs.
Dylan Shiel wore it in 135 games before moving to Essendon, Jye Caldwell played only 11 games in it in two seasons before also heading to Tullamarine, and now Tanner Bruhn wore it on 30 occasions in two seasons before being traded on Friday to Geelong.
DOW MIGHT STAY A BLUE
Paddy Dow looks increasingly likely to see out his 2023 contract at Carlton and will attempt to sway coach Michael Voss that he belongs in the club’s best midfield. It’s understood Richmond and Geelong have shown mild interest in Dow in recent years however they were unwilling to give up much and have since bolstered their midfields with better options.
But Dow became a VFL weapon as an explosive inside midfielder this year and only turns 23 next week. The No.3 draft pick averaged 114 SuperCoach points and 29.1 disposals in the VFL this year despite only playing two AFL games under Voss. With Setterfield headed for the Bombers, keeping Dow shapes as a win for the Blues’ midfield depth.
SOLDO COULD UNLOCK HOPPER DEAL
Richmond and Greater Western Sydney agreed to separate Jacob Hopper from the Tim Taranto deal, which was completed quickly on Monday for the Tigers’ picks 12 and 19.
The challenge is that Hopper is contracted and Richmond has only pick 31 and a future first-round selection to make its best offer, which is why Canberra-raised ruckman Ivan Soldo is likely to be part of the deal.
Soldo would enter a ruck logjam at the Giants with Braydon Preuss, Matt Flynn and Kieren Briggs but is yet to give the green light to him moving.
The 25-year-old midfielder should make it to Punt Road – and hopefully without the trade dragging into Wednesday.
LOPSIDED DEALS
When the trading of future draft picks was first implemented, the AFL claimed it would block trades where the points value of the swap was out by more than about 100. But St Kilda and Hawthorn made a mockery of that when the Saints pillaged the Hawks, who were desperate for their No.10 pick to unlock the Jaeger O‘Meara trade.
It seems the league no longer really cares about lopsided deals according to points, given the deal between Geelong and Brisbane on Friday. The Cats gave up 38, 48, a future second-rounder and a future fourth-rounder for pick 25.
The Lions are likely to win that trade by roughly 600 points, and far more if the Cats fall down the ladder in 2023, the equivalent of getting about pick 30 for free.
IZAK STILL WAITING
The Izak Rankine to Adelaide deal will get done but the complicated Jack Bowes situation is holding up proceedings.
Gold Coast will trade Rankine to Adelaide in a package that centres on the Crows’ pick five but will also include some late pick swaps.
How that looks may depend on what Geelong ends up giving to the Suns in the controversial Bowes salary dump deal that also delivers the new premier pick seven as reward for taking on the 24-year-old’s wage.
If the Bowes trade goes through on Monday, expect Rankine to follow not far behind.
SAINT OPEN TO FRESH START
There’s been no official trade request from Hunter Clark, or his camp, but he is certainly open to a fresh start at North Melbourne.
The No.7 pick in the 2017 draft is a smooth mover but has played only 68 games for St Kilda in five years, including just eight this past season, because of a horror run of injuries.
The Saints say they are “reluctant” to trade Clark and expect him to be at Moorabbin next year, but the door hasn’t been slammed shut on a trade.
ESAVA EAGER FOR OPPORTUNITIES
There might not ever be an official trade request but Geelong knows versatile big man Esava Ratugolea wants to play for Port Adelaide next year.
At 24, Ratugolea wants to play regular AFL footy but managed only four senior appearances this past season to give him 59 overall.
A switch into defence has suited him nicely and caught the Power’s attention, but the challenge is getting a deal done, particularly because the Cats continue to say he is going nowhere.
Port will likely have to part with its future first-round pick in the pursuit of Jason Horne-Francis and Junior Rioli, but the AFL rejected its bid to also trade a second-round selection from 2023 as well.
That pick would’ve seemingly been the one to present to Geelong, but list boss Andrew Mackie may just refuse to trade Ratugolea, who is contracted until the end of next season, anyway.
BILLY PIE-BOUND
Adelaide foward/defender Billy Frampton, who can also play in the ruck and up forward, will find his way to Collingwood but the clubs are yet to agree on a deal.
Frampton, who started his career at Port Adelaide, will likely move for a future third-round pick and could challenge for a senior game immediately next season.
DOCKERS IN THE ACTION
Fremantle wants a future second-round pick off Hawthorn for the wantaway ruckman Lloyd Meek.
That is a strong initial stance, because the Dockers shipped off Griffin Logue, Darcy Tucker and a future third-round selection to North Melbourne for a modest return of future second-, third- and fourth-round selections.
Meek played only six senior games this year and knows his opportunities won’t increase with Luke Jackson set to arrive from Melbourne.
But Freo is playing this one cautiously, knowing forward-ruck Rory Lobb wants out. If Meek was to go, too, the Dockers would be short on ruck depth.
As for Lobb, Fremantle continues to refuse to trade him, just like last year. The Western Bulldogs’ offer of pick 30 hasn’t moved the needle.
DEMONS ON THE MOVE
Toby Bedford, who racked up medi-sub appearances this year, wants to play for the Giants, where there is a big opening for the small forward to play regularly.
Figuring out Bedford’s value is a different story.
GWS has no selections between 19 and 44 at this stage, with Melbourne list boss Tim Lamb appearing to be dissatisfied with the latter pick being appropriate compensation when he spoke a few days later.
The 22-year-old will get to the Giants but there might be some to-ing and fro-ing first.
Melbourne has given its blessing for Tomlinson to explore his options but no one is biting just yet.
The 29-year-old defender has played only 28 games in three seasons since crossing from the Giants, in large part because of an ACL setback but also from falling in the pecking order.
As it stands, Tomlinson would need the Demons to swing Harry Petty forward or rely on injury to break into the backline, hence why he is keen to find a new home.
He has two years to run on his free agency contract.
ROOS WARNED: DON’T GIVE UP PICK 1
Dual Kangaroos premiership player David King has urged his former side to reject Greater Western Sydney’s proposal to prise the No.1 draft pick out of Arden St.
A multi-club trade could come into play early next week which could see last year’s No. 1 pick Jason Horne-Francis land at Port Adelaide, with the Eagles and Giants also involved.
The Kangaroos could have the first two draft picks as part of the Horne-Francis trade, then hand over the No.1 pick to the Giants for their No. 3 pick and another pick from 12 to 15.
The Giants are keen on Aaron Cadman, which has led to their push to secure the top pick.
But King said the Kangaroos should be positioning themselves to land Cadman themselves, saying they should back the club’s young midfielders.
Please no @NMFCOfficial : We need to draft our own legit key forward !! Vic Country boy…..perfect. Trust in Powell, Phillips, LDU, Simpkin etc.
— David King (@davidking34) October 7, 2022
Ruining my night @CalTwomey !! Ha ha https://t.co/hxR8u0ovU8
TOBY RATES TANNER
Geelong fans unsure about Tanner Bruhn should revisit what Giants co-captain Toby Greene wrote about his former teammate in his Herald Sun column in grand final week: “Tanner Bruhn is a good kid. He shows a lot of training but it probably just hasn’t transferred into a game yet. But I’m sure that’s not too far away. I definitely tried to help Tanner this year, I’m pretty close with him. He talked about his future a couple of times throughout the year and he was just torn on what to do”.
Bruhn, 20, has won 20 or more disposals just twice from his 30 AFL games. But based on what Greene saw at training it sounds like Geelong has got another good midfielder through the door.
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Originally published as AFL Trades State of Play: Where every deal is at and what to expect ahead of deadline
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