Explaining North Melbourne’s decision to trade away the draft’s No.1 overall selection

North Melbourne’s decision to trade Jason Horne-Francis and pick 1 could prove to be an inspired move. But fans will be watching with their hands over their eyes.

North Melbourne has taken a punt with its trade of Jason Horne-Francis.

The simple explanation for North Melbourne’s decision to trade away the draft’s No.1 overall selection is that the Kangaroos didn’t believe Aaron Cadman was in the draft’s top two players.

Greater Western Sydney moved heaven and earth as part of Monday’s mega trade to secure the No.1 pick that will allow them to draft the brilliant left-footed Darley key position star.

North Melbourne believed the decision to cut their losses, in effect turning two high picks (Horne-Francis and this year’s No.1) into picks two, three and a Port Adelaide future first-rounder, was a no-brainer.

With a list that probably needs six-eight more players, why not take two brilliant midfielders and then secure the Power 2023 first rounder to ensure they can cash in on an even stronger draft?

The problem for North Melbourne fans – and former players slowly getting used to mediocrity – is that all of a sudden they have a huge case of FOMO.

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Their next 12 months could be a hell ride watching the bloke they overlooked dominate, the bloke who left them turn into a star and the extra pick they received from Port Adelaide shrink by the week.

An exercise in turning Horne-Francis’ departure into a vast trade fortune seems to have turned into them getting 75 cents on the dollar.

The Roos said on Monday they had maximised their return by securing the extra first-round selection next year as they turned Horne-Francis and pick No.1 into selections two and three this year.

But they already had pick No.1 this year.

They could have played hardball with Port Adelaide to secure their pick 8 and another top-12 selection for Horne-Francis.

They could then have traded for the Eagles’ pick 2, giving them the top two picks in November’s draft without having to hand the first overall selection to the Giants.

If they missed on a Port Adelaide future first-rounder so be it, because they would have dominated this draft without the risk they missed on the best player by handing over the first live pick after the Lions matched a bid for Will Ashcroft.

Will Vic young gun Aaron Cadman give North cause for regret? Picture: AFL Photos/Getty Images

Roos fans will genuinely fear Cadman turning into the hybrid of Jeremy Cameron and Harry McKay that recruiters believe he could be.

They will wonder why the Roos are so worried about taking key position players like Logan McDonald when blind Freddy can see they need another key position forward.

North Melbourne will point to the hit-or-miss strike rate of key position talls taken in the top 10 in recent years – think Denver Grainger Barrass or Fisher McAsey or Jack Lukosius.

But the problem for Roos fans is two-fold.

In theory the decision could be inspired if Cadman struggles early and the Roos get instant gratification from a pair like the explosive mid George Wardlaw and brilliant mid-forward Harry Sheezel, with two first rounders to come next year.

But a club that used to pull the wool over the eyes of rivals with heists on stars like Wayne Carey and John Longmire doesn’t exactly have the track record to be trusted in recent years.

Roos fans have grown used to watching some of these trades with their hands over their eyes, barely able to peek through their fingers.

Instead of taking the tall-small combination premiership star David King called for as he declared the Roos had been “dudded” on Fox Footy on Monday night, Roos fans will watch in 2023 aware Cadman has the tools to take the competition by storm.

They spend the year having handed Jason Horne-Francis to the Power, aware on his home turf he could emerge as a future champion of the game.

And if Port Adelaide roars up the ladder after this year’s dismal campaign their future first-rounder linked to the Power only diminishes in quality.

So it is up to Clarkson, or whoever runs their program next year, to ensure the development program is absolutely elite and turns their No. 2 and 3 picks into the stars they should be.

That they ensure Nick Larkey and Cam Zurhaar and Callum Coleman-Jones and Charlie Comben and Jacob Edwards turn into the key position force that means the Roos didn’t need Cadman.

And more to the point, that the Roos get their house in order and stop going through coaches as a yearly event so players like Horne-Francis don’t bolt at the first opportunity.

Originally published as Explaining North Melbourne’s decision to trade away the draft’s No.1 overall selection