The List Manager: Jon Ralph runs the rule over Brisbane’s current group, its future and everything in between
How many genuine cracks do the Lions have left before their premiership window shuts? Jon Ralph digs deep into the Brisbane list – and the big future decisions – to find a surprising answer.
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How many times can Brisbane launch a deep finals run without holding up the cup until this premiership window slams firmly shut?
It is valid question, until you drill deeper into the Brisbane list demographic and realise how successfully the Lions have bucked footy’s equalisation measures.
The Lions came up short on grand final day and have now played in five successive finals campaigns for a grand final loss (2023), preliminary final loss (2022), one-point semi-final loss (2021), preliminary final loss (2020) and three-point semi-final loss (2019).
And yet, through free agency, the father-son system, canny recruiting and the development of an elite culture where players like Josh Dunkley want to move north, Brisbane should have another five cracks at the title.
Consider their three 19-year-olds — Will Ashcroft, Darcy Wilmot and Jaspa Fletcher.
Their 21 to 25-year-olds — Keidean Coleman, Hugh McCluggage, Jack Payne, Noah Answerth, Brandon Starcevich, Cam Rayner and Zac Bailey.
And the elite talents like Dunkley and reigning best-and-fairest winner Harris Andrews who are still only 26.
So Brisbane might have bungled the chance to pull the 2023 premiership from Collingwood’s grasp with Dan McStay out injured, Nathan Murphy concussed and the game still up for grabs until Jarrod Berry handed Steele Sidebottom the 50m penalty which sealed the grand final.
But this side is not going quietly into the night any time soon.
TRADE PERIOD
Rating: 7/10
The Lions paid more than reported for Tom Doedee — underbidder Collingwood believed it was north of $750,000 a year — but Brisbane thought there was so much to like about the Adelaide interceptor.
He is a champion of a human being, solid friends with many of their Vic Country recruits and, at 26, the perfect hybrid defender or third tall to play alongside Andrews and Jack Payne until 2030.
They are aware of the risk profile of twin ACL repairs but believe his diligence to rehab will help as he and Ashcroft work through their recoveries together.
And having scouted him heavily in the back-end of 2022 and early this year pre ACL-tear, they love his role as an on-field organiser prepared to be selfless with his on-field roles.
He also made an instant impact after his first ACL tear so the hope is he gets back and in form by the time the Lions hit September next year.
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From there, the Lions gave away key tall Tom Fullarton for Melbourne’s pick 47, aware he was unlikely to play a meaningful role next year.
And they turned 32-year-old Jack Gunston into 26-year-old Brandon Ryan for a swap of picks that included their future second-rounder.
The Lions looked more damaging with Cam Rayner as the third tall in attack so it potentially saves some awkward selection decisions if Gunston was fit and available early next year.
Gunston is one of a trio of plus-30s to move on (including Dan Rich and Marcus Adams), so the Lions get younger, bring in a player more likely to play seniors in Ryan and don’t give up the world.
All in all, a very solid trade and free agency period.
LIST HOLES
The pitch to Doedee was very similar to Josh Dunkley 12 months before.
We aren’t going anywhere.
The Lions are a well-run club, have matchwinners on every line, and now have an excellent list demographic with depth in every area.
In defence, Andrews, Payne and Lester are defensive locks but Darcy Gardiner’s finals were impressive and Doedee will slot in mid-season.
Oscar McInerney has Darcy Fort as ruck cover, while Joe Daniher seemed to play with greater freedom taking his turn in the centre square.
Ex-Hawks mid-season draftee Ryan has only three AFL games as a late bloomer, but showed with three goals against Collingwood in round 21 he has vast potential.
The midfield badly missed extractor Ashcroft when he tore his ACL in round 19, but bats deep — dual Brownlow Medallist Neale, McCluggage, Dunkley, Ashcroft, Fletcher, Rayner and Bailey pinch-hitting.
The list is far from perfect and, as well as 34-year-old Dayne Zorko, has Neale at 30, and Daniher and Charlie Cameron turning 30 next year.
Chris Fagan told his charges in the grand final review that while only a handful of them had Grand Final experience entering the game — Dunkley, Cameron and Neale — now 23 of them had lived that day.
It will steel them and motivate them, given some thrived and others blew their lines.
So the Lions won’t get chances forever, but should be at their absolute peak for the next three years with no cliff coming when Neale and Daniher retire.
DRAFT STRATEGY
The Lions’ first pick is 30 followed by 39, 51, 54, 67 and 97.
They plan to take between two and four picks, depending upon how the draft falls.
Next year’s blue-chip investment is Levi Ashcroft, one of a collection of elite mids which populate the 2024 national draft.
The youngest son of premiership hero Marcus should slot nicely into the midfield, alongside his brother, as another top-10 pick.
But having given away the future second-rounder for Ryan, they will keep their future first-rounder to retain points for Fletcher.
As a pick likely to slot into the 2024 national draft at 15-20 it holds little appeal for rivals so Brisbane won’t try to use it to get further up this year’s draft order either.
Having nailed enough of their recent draft picks — Ashcroft (pick 1), Fletcher (pick 12), Wilmot (pick 16), Coleman (pick 37), Rayner (pick 1), Bailey (pick 15), McCluggage (pick 3 — there is no pressing positional need in this year’s national draft.
WHO’S UNDER THE PUMP
Rayner had another year full of exciting cameos, but also flat spots, caused in part by him playing multiple positions as a small forward who goes into the midfield.
He kicked 23 goals in 26 games, averaged only 68 ranking points and 14 possessions and while he kicked three goals in the qualifying final was goalless in the prelim and grand final with only 20 combined possessions in those final two games.
It is his cross to bear as a versatile player.
Question — does he have more talent than Bobby Hill?
Most would answer in the affirmative and, yet, while Hill dominated on the big stage, Rayner didn’t come up big in the same fashion.
PREMIERSHIP WINDOW
The Lions have got lucky in the father-son sweepstakes — Ashcroft, Fletcher and another Ashcroft to come. Mark down Fletcher for 200 glorious games. It means this club should believe it can challenge through to 2030.
TRADE TARGETS FOR 2024
Father-son Levi Ashcroft will take up most of their draft capital as a clone of his brother — scrounging the ball from the bottom of packs, using his hands to bring teammates into play.
He even played three Vic Metro Under-18 championship games as a bottom-ager this year and averaged 27 possessions.
But the Lions have shown they are always on the lookout.
This year it was Doedee, last year it was Irishman Conor McKenna and Dunkley.
As a destination club with a strong history of getting the best out of injury-prone players, don’t sleep on them come trade time next year.
TRADE BAIT
The Lions are yet to broker a new deal with free agent McCluggage.
He’s not a top-10 AFL midfielder but he’s highly consistent, highly durable (averaging 21 games a year), he’s a leader and he’s worthy of a six-year extension on $1 million a season through to 2023.
It’s crazy money, but he would have 17 teams knocking down manager David Trotter’s door if they low-balled him and the contract drifted to July.
Kidean Coleman’s breakout year — and first half in the grand final – ups his price and a three-year deal would get him through to free agency.
Others out of contract include Brandon Starcevich, Jarrod Berry, Noah Answerth and Linc McCarthy.
Dev Robertson and Kai Lohmann signed on again but if they don’t get senior opportunities someone will keep asking the questions.
CAP SPACE
For a team in premiership contention, the Lions took advantage of the CBA rise to offer Doedee his lucrative four-year deal and don’t have any dramatic back-ended deals that will hurt them in coming seasons.
They don’t need to jettison players and had room to pay Darcy Fort overs for his role as what is, in effect, a back-up ruckman on a two-year deal, just as an NFL team rewards their back-up quarterback in case of emergency.
So they are in an excellent spot, having paid Dunkley good, but not ridiculous, money and extended players like Eric Hipwood on six-year extension but relatively modest financial terms.
TOP 100 IN PLAYER RATINGS AND A 2024 BOLTER
Lachie Neale (32nd), Oscar McInerney (49th), Harris Andrews (54th), Joe Daniher (73rd), Zac Bailey (83rd), Will Ashcroft (99th), Hugh McCluggage (100th). McCluggage started slowly then roared home in the Grand Final. Third in the best-and-fairest but can he take game to a new level?
Originally published as The List Manager: Jon Ralph runs the rule over Brisbane’s current group, its future and everything in between
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