Ultimate finals formguide: How every top eight team is placed, expert predictions
Are the Cats a lock for this year’s flag? And who will take all before them and become the star of the finals series? Our experts make their finals predictions.
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After 396 home-and-away matches, eight teams are left in the fight for the 2022 premiership.
Every side has a story and a reason for fans to dream of grand final glory.
Our experts name their premier and the players who will shape September in our finals crystal ball.
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MARK ROBINSON
Premier: Geelong. Best team in the comp for 10 weeks and are more versatile than any team Chris Scott has coached.
Runner up: Melbourne
Norm Smith: Tom Atkins
Mr September: One of the Toms – Hawkins, Stewart, Atkins
Spring Surprise: Will Hayward
Brownlow: Patrick Cripps
Pre-season prediction tick: Sydney top four
Pre-season prediction cross: Collingwood bottom four
JON RALPH
Premier: Geelong. Thirteen wins on the trot, rarely threatened in that patch. Firepower, consistency and a burning desire to right past wrongs.
Runner up: Melbourne.
Norm Smith: Tyson Stengle
Mr September: Tom De Koning
Spring Surprise: The Dogs make a deep September run again
Brownlow: Lachie Neale
Pre-season prediction tick: Six of the top eight right but missed on Port Adelaide, Essendon
Pre-season prediction cross: Though Denver Grainger-Barass might make an impact as a Rising Star roughie
GLENN McFARLANE
Premier: Geelong. An exciting new game style, a streak of 13 wins leading into the finals, the most damaging forward mix and the rise of the so-called lesser lights. They are well-armed to shed the September sins of the past.
Runner-up: Melbourne
Norm Smith: Jeremy Cameron
Mr September: Clayton Oliver
Spring surprise: Brad Close
Brownlow: Clayton Oliver
Pre-season prediction tick: Nick Daicos. Do believe the hype!
Pre-season prediction cross: Gold Coast wooden spoon … whoops
JAY CLARK
Premier: Geelong has performed a majestic dance along the cliff edge it was thought they’d fall over. Re-written the rebuild rule book.
Runner-up: Collingwood
Norm Smith: Tom Stewart
Mr September: Patrick Dangerfield
Spring surprise: Oliver Henry
Brownlow: Lachie Neale
Pre-season prediction tick: Fremantle to play finals
Pre-season prediction cross: Bulldogs to make top-four
SCOTT GULLAN
Premier: Geelong. Have got the mix right, finally. No major reliance on individuals, they bat deep and are playing in a style that will stand up in finals. Jeremey Cameron’s hamstring the only issue.
Runner-up: Melbourne
Norm Smith: Patrick Dangerfield
Mr September: Zach Tuohy
Spring surprise: Sam Darcy
Brownlow Medal: Patrick Cripps
Pre-season prediction tick: Collingwood to be the bolter and GWS to slide
Pre-season prediction cross: Hawthorn for wooden spoon.
SAM LANDSBERGER
Premier: This list – which includes two Irishmen and a steeplechaser – is deeper than William Shakespeare poetry. Incredible the likes of Brandan Parfitt, Mark O’Connor, Zach Guthrie, Jonathon Ceglar, Sam Menegola, Luke Dahlhaus and Esava Ratugolea could miss out on a premiership medal because the Cats can’t squeeze 30 into 23.
Runner-up: Sydney
Norm Smith: Tom Stewart
Mr September: Chad Warner
Spring surprise: A fourth senior coach departs
Brownlow: Clayton Oliver
Pre-season prediction tick: Halo Jordan? St Kilda pursues De Goey
Pre-season prediction cross: Cats run out of lives, miss the eight
MATT TURNER
Premier: Geelong. This does not look like the Cats side that has knocked on the door so often over the past decade, only to fall short. They move the quicker, plus Stengle and De Koning have been significant additions.
Runner-up: Collingwood. Logic says Melbourne, but there seems a bit of destiny about
Collingwood going on a deep finals run.
Norm Smith: Mitch Duncan
Mr September: Jeremy Cameron
Spring surprise: Ash Johnson and/or Beau McCreery star in a couple of finals
Brownlow: Clayton Oliver
Pre-season prediction tick: GWS sliding
Pre-season prediction cross: Gold Coast claiming the wooden spoon
CHRIS CAVANAGH
Premier: Geelong. This is a different Cats team to what we’ve seen in the past. They enter September as the clear frontrunner.
Runner-up: Melbourne
Norm Smith: Tom Stewart
Mr September: Max Gawn
Spring surprise: Brad Close
Brownlow: Lachie Neale
Pre-season prediction tick: West Coast to be the big slider
Pre-season prediction cross: Port Adelaide to make the Grand Final
REBECCA WILLIAMS
Premier: Geelong. The Cats have been the dominant side of the season. Have the finals experience and personnel to deliver Chris Scott a second flag.
Runner-up: Melbourne
Norm Smith: Patrick Dangerfield
Mr September: Clayton Oliver
Spring surprise: Chad Warner
Brownlow: Lachie Neale
Pre-season prediction tick: Collingwood as a bolter
Pre-season prediction cross: Geelong as a slider
LAUREN WOOD
Premier: Geelong. The way these Cats just keep creating more lives is just incredible. They have the dangerous cocktail of star power, the credentials and the experience to go all the way.
Runner-up: Richmond
Norm Smith: Patrick Dangerfield
Mr September: Tom Stewart
Spring surprise: Maurice Rioli
Brownlow: Lachie Neale
Pre-season prediction tick: Not giving away any state secrets but Christian Petracca being in Brownlow contention. Star.
Pre-season prediction cross: North Melbourne as a bolter. Couldn’t have been more wrong there.
SIMEON THOMAS-WILSON
Premier: Sydney. I’m going out on a limb and backing their talented young players to cause an almighty surprise this year.
Runner-up: Melbourne
Norm Smith: Isaac Heeney
Mr September: Max Gawn, he will kick four goals in a final
Spring surprise: Errol Gulden is going to announce himself as a star
Brownlow: Clayton Oliver
Pre-season prediction tick: Fremantle as a bolter
Pre-season prediction cross: Hawthorn for wooden spoon
Wildcards who can shape September
Here’s what to look for in every contender, the biggest September wildcards and scroll down for our expert finals predictions.
GEELONG
Written off more than Tom Brady in recent years, and yet there was AFL boss Gillon McLachlan at Geelong’s round 23 president’s function presenting the McClelland Trophy for the minor premiership because the Cats were two games clear on top. A remarkable campaign. Chief executive Steve Hocking revealed the Cats hired 16 new people in football boss Simon Lloyd’s program, which comprises 33 full-timers. That included coaches James Kelly, Eddie Betts and Matthew Egan, and the influx helped refresh the likes of Chris Scott, assistant Shaun Grigg, fitness guru Scott Murphy and perhaps the players. From the 2011 flag only Tom Hawkins, Joel Selwood and Mitch Duncan (who was the substitute) remain, and so the list build from Stephen Wells and Andrew Mackie has been first-class given their dearth of prized draft picks. The Cats have finished in the top four in six of the past seven seasons and in 13 out of the past 16. Hocking also said: “If we’re not taking risk, why are we in the business?” and the punt on delisted free agent Tyson Stengle has been rewarded with All-Australian selection, with Stengle perhaps the cheapest player to ever wear the blazer. Stengle has been held goalless just three times, although once was by fellow All-Australian Brayden Maynard (Collingwood) in round 3.
X-FACTOR: PATRICK DANGERFIELD
Look at Dangerfield’s September building blocks – in the past three games he’s averaged 24 damaging disposals playing as a midfielder-forward (57-43 per cent split). Those touches have torched teams, made up of 12 contested possessions, seven inside-50s, five clearances and eight score involvements. Those numbers would all rank No. 1 for mid-forwards this year, and the hunger of chasing a maiden premiership would be burning for this champion who has lost one grand final and five preliminary finals.
MELBOURNE
Ask Max King who his toughest opponent is and he’ll say Steven May, as well as the entire Melbourne backline. Well, after a year that seemed patchy the Demons have powered to the finals with their dismantling weapons looking sharp. The Dees defence ranks No. 1 for points against (67.5), No. 2 for opposition scores per inside 50 (39.5), No. 3 for points against from turnovers (37.5), No. 2 for points against from stoppages (27.3) and No. 3 for preventing full-ground ball movement. Once questioned for investing so much of their salary cap behind the ball in May and Jake Lever, the twin defensive towers could be about to unlock a Demon dynasty. The midfield remains brutal and the Demons are 13-1 when they win the inside 50 count, although they lost that stat in round 23 but threaded goals from 36 per cent of entries to still belt Brisbane. That efficiency was off-the-charts – they couldn’t miss – and is unlikely to be repeated, so the sole question remains about the production up forward. But Tom McDonald is suddenly in reserve, Kozzie Pickett’s second half of the year has sizzled and who would to go anywhere near Max Gawn playing as a deep forward? The best part of the September fixture for fans is this – after sitting in your living rooms watching on TV for all of last September, this season the Demons are guaranteed to play every final at the MCG.
X-FACTOR: JAKE MELKSHAM
Melksham’s scoreboard impact since returning in round 18 has been massive, with 10 goals in six games along with seven score involvements and two score assists per game. What’s more impressive is he appears to be in the side to negate an intercepting weapon, having lined up on prime movers Jacob Weitering, Darcy Moore, Brennan Cox and Aliir Aliir. Who do the Swans throw at him? Nick Blakey? Jake Lloyd? Paddy McCartin? Melksham’s stretch of form could unlock that premiership medal he missed out on last year and perhaps earn himself another contract.
SYDNEY SWANS
The Swans are not meant to be here. Not yet, anyway. In round 23 they fielded a younger line-up than St Kilda (who finished 10th) and they already hold two first-round picks in this year’s draft. It’s a list profile that wasn’t expected to seriously challenge for silverware until 2023 at the earliest. But here they are anyway, sitting pretty in third and just two wins away from a fourth grand final under master coach John Longmire. Of course they are. We should be used to it. This will be Sydney’s 22nd finals campaign in 27 years, and these are just some of the stars aged 26 or under who are going nowhere – Isaac Heeney, Tom Papley, Paddy McCartin, Callum Mills, Oliver Florent, Will Hayward, Tom McCartin, Nick Blakey, Justin McInerney, Sam Wicks, James Rowbottom, Chad Warner, Dylan Stephens, Errol Gulden and Logan McDonald. Buddy Franklin, why would you retire or even think about playing anywhere else next season? What’s even more frightening is the formline. Since the round 16 shock loss to Essendon at the MCG, the Swans rank No. 2 for points for (103.3), No. 2 for points against (66.9), No. 1 for scores per inside-50 (50 per cent), No. 2 for points differential from turnovers (+30.1) and No. 1 for pressure. Yikes. Maybe a fairytale flag for Bud is on. The magical number against the Demons on Friday night is 100 points – Sydney is 10-0 scoring that much and 6-6 scoring less this season.
X-FACTOR: CHAD WARNER
Make no mistake, this is Sydney’s Christian Petracca. Warner is more powerful than David Barham and his secret is being a stress-free kid who plays on natural instinct. In fact, only three midfielders are rated elite for goals, score assists and score involvements by Champion Data – Warner, Petracca and Marcus Bontempelli. How is Warner just 21 and 36 games into his AFL journey? The beauty of the West Australian has been his rate of improvement this year. He seems to get hotter and hotter by the week.
COLLINGWOOD
Dig deep into the contest numbers for the qualifying final and it isn’t pleasant reading because Geelong’s onball brigade is miles ahead. The Cats rank fifth for points from stoppages (34.2), fourth for contested ball differential (+5.1) and clearance differential (+2) compared Collingwood’s 28.1 points from stoppages (15th), -9.1 contested ball (17th) and clearance differential -5.2 (17th). That should translate into territory dominance for Geelong. But there are two countering arguments that can keep the Magpies alive. The first is that their ball movement from the defensive half has improved out of sight, so even if they lose the territory battle they are capable of winning it back and transitioning the ground. In the first 17 rounds they averaged 29.6 points from defensive half (ranked 10th), but since then it’s risen to 38.2 points (ranked 3rd). The second is that stats mean bugger all when looking at the magical Maggies. They are calm in the crunch and can never be killed. Coach Craig McRae conceded the statistics they were posting in these miraculous wins weren’t sustainable. But if they can just pull three more rabbits out of the hat they will have a premiership cup for all their tricks. It’s almost within touching distance, and it’s being powered by the professional kids. Ask anyone at Collingwood about Nick Daicos’s diet or Beau McReery’s tackling technique or Brayden Maynard’s infectious energy, and they will smile proudly. From straight-line kicking and slow play under Nathan Buckley to a chaotic style fuelled by spirit and belief. If it gets tight on Saturday the Magpies will know the Cats have played just two thrillers this season whereas they have experienced a lifetime’s amount, and won them all.
X-FACTOR: JAMIE ELLIOTT
Robbie Gray has retired and the AFL has a new clutch king in Jamie Elliott. In final quarters since round 17 this bloke has 8.0 – he doesn't miss when it matters most – and he is the game’s No. 2 forward-half pressure player among all small forwards. Elliott didn't play a single game in 2016 or 2018 but is fast making up for that. He has broken Essendon and Carlton’s hearts and forever endeared himself to the Western Bulldogs for granting their September dream.
FREMANTLE
Don’t they say defence wins premierships? Well, Fremantle is the best in the business. The Dockers are ranked No. 1 for points against and opposition scores per inside 50 this year and have a wildcard called Nat Fyfe set to start out of the goalsquare. Fyfe’s 16 Brownlow Medal votes polled against the Bulldogs is bettered only by his 24 against North Melbourne, and coach Justin Longmuir’s planning for this opponent was perfect only weeks ago, with his team totally dismantling the Dogs in the first half. That day they played keepings off, taking 129 uncontested marks and 18 grabs inside 50 to stifle the Dogs’ ball movement as Rory Lobb impersonated Lance Franklin with four goals from about 50m. In 2021 the Dockers used Caleb Serong to tag Tom Liberatore, but Serong and Andrew Brayshaw are such damaging midfield weapons at the feet of man mountain Sean Darcy it is hard to see any shutdown roles on Saturday night. Fremantle has fielded a younger team than it’s opponent in 14 games this year, more than any other finalist, boding well for the future. The worry this finals series kicking a winning score. Fremantle is 15-0 scoring at least 66 points and hasn’t won a game scoring fewer. They rank 12th for points (79), 13th for scores per inside 50 (42.6 per cent) and 12th for points from stoppages (30.4)
X-FACTOR: SAM SWITKOWSKI
The lesser light who makes others shine bright, Switowski is the architect for a lot of the brilliance enjoyed by Rory Lobb, Matt Taberner, Michael Frederick and Michael Walters this year. He leads all small forwards for pressure and score assists. Watch him closely and you will see why this is one of Fremantle’s secret weapon.
BRISBANE LIONS
Assessing Brisbane is like a choose your own adventure book because there are two narratives. One is they are finals flops, owing to a 1-5 record in September under coach Chris Fagan. The other is they have been eliminated by heartbreaking one-point and three-point margins, so that finals record could easily be 50 per cent. One is they are in a form slump so alarming they will be roadkill against the Tigers, having conceded clumps of goals in their final month – 81 points in a half against Melbourne, 35 points in 20 minutes against St Kilda, 49 points in 27 minutes against Carlton and 55 points in 45 minutes against Richmond. The other is they’ve played only two shockers for the year, both against the Demons, and were 4-1 entering round 23 and the only loss in that run coming against Richmond in a game they led by 42 points. In fact, the Lions are happy with 20 out of their 22 performances this season. If you discount the Dees losses their biggest losing margin is just 14 points, which came away to Fremantle. Their other defeats were by just 10 points against Geelong at GMHBA Stadium, five points against Hawthorn in Launceston and 10 points against Essendon when half the side had Covid. But the performance against Melbourne in round 23 was their season-worst for points from stoppage (15) and post-clearance pressure applied. Fagan reminded his men what finals felt like last week and referenced their qualifying final victory over the Tigers in 2020. The one narrative that is indisputable is the Lions’ leaky defence, which has lost Marcus Adams (concussion) for the year. It is a complete mess. From rounds 10-23 they’ve conceded on average 90.1 points (ranked 16th), 38.5 points from defensive half (ranked 17th), 52 points from turnovers (ranked 13th) and are conceding a score from 47.2 per cent of inside 50s (ranked 16th). That’s North Melbourne and West Coast-esque.
X-FACTOR: LACHIE NEALE
All eyes – and ears – will be on Dayne Zorko and the erratic Joe Daniher, but the Brownlow Medal favourite is the man to restart Brisbane’s engine. Neale is more of a death-by-a-thousand cuts ball magnet rather than a look-at-me dazzler, but his numbers in 2022 are breathtaking. For all midfielders Neale ranks No. 6 for disposals (30.1), No. 2 for contested ball (15.9), No. 2 for ground ball gets (11.3), No. 5 for clearances (7.3) and No. 11 for score involvements (11.6). Oh, and obvious pick, Cameron Rayner, is suspended.
RICHMOND
Is this the best team to ever finish seventh? In 2016 the Western Bulldogs won 15 games but somehow sank to this spot before storming to the premiership. This year the Tigers won 13 and a half games, but have looked top-four quality against most fellow finalists. In fact, they are the reverse Collingwood. They've played five games decided by a goal or less – against Sydney, North Melbourne, Geelong, Gold Coast and Fremantle – and banked only two premiership points. They blew what appeared to be matchwinning leads against the Swans, Roos, Cats and Suns and did everything but fall in against the Dockers, when the siren sounded a second too late for Noah Cumberland. Split those five games and they’re on 16 wins and sitting inside the top four. Like the Tigers of old they are fantastic at scoring off turnovers and transitioning but the 2022 version doesn’t have the same stingy defence. The Tigers concede 33.9 points at stoppages (ranked 15th), 33.7 points from their defensive half (ranked 14th) and concede a score from 44.5 per cent of opposition inside 50s (ranked 13th). Expect a shootout at the Gabba – both clubs struggle defensively but are brilliant offensively. The Tigers are No. 1 for goals and points from turnover and No. 3 for scores per inside 50 while the Lions are No. 2, No. 4 and No. 4 in those areas. They are also the best two teams for taking the ball from one end of the ground to the other. If the Tigers progress and the Swans upset the Demons on Friday night then they won’t have to leave their MCG fortress for the rest of September.
X-FACTOR: TOM LYNCH
Shai Bolton – the centre-bounce player who drifts forward ala Dustin Martin – is the obvious pick. But Lynch might just be the man who rips September to shreds. Lynch‘s 21 goals in the final month of the season was eight more than any other player while for all key forwards in that stretch he also ranks No. 1 for contested marks (4.8), forward 50 marks (4.8) and No. 2 for score involvements (9) and No. 2 for disposals (17). Harrison Andrews, good luck.
WESTERN BULLDOGS
For romantics, the 2022 campaign could mirror the 2016 itinerary – Perth, MCG, Sydney, MCG. For realists, it’s hard to draw too many more parallels. Six years ago, and indeed last year, the Dogs looked every bit a premiership contender despite missing the top four. In 2022 they have fallen in, with their production at both ends a red flag. In the first 15 rounds the Dogs ranked No. 2 for goals, No. 3 for scores per inside 50 and No. 1 for points from stoppages. In the two months since then those rankings have dropped to No. 13, No. 15 and No. 13 respectively. In those same two months they have ranked No. 13 for points against, No. 14 for opposition goals per inside 50, No. 16 for points against from turnovers and No. 15 for opposition points from defensive half. In layman's terms, clubs are taking the ball the length of the ground and scoring against these Dogs far too easily. Josh Schache closed the VFL season with 14.4 in two matches but doesn’t appear the answer while Alex Keath, a rock in fullback for so long who probably kicked goal of the year this season, has joined Schache in the VFL. The Dogs went 3-8 against teams in the top half of the ladder this season, with all of those victories coming under the Marvel Stadium roof that they won’t play under again. The brand is battling. But in 2016 and 2021 the Dogs entered finals out of touch before their September brand became brutal.
X-FACTOR: SAM DARCY
Swingman who swung the round 23 contest with a pair of goals and three contested marks in attack. It was game No. 3 for the kid who keeps on growing, joining Nick Riewoldt, Jesse Hogan and Ben King to clunk three contested grabs in their third outing. Watching Darcy train at Whitten Oval last week was eye-popping for onlookers. The No. 2 draft pick is playing next to No. 1 pick Jamarra Ugle-Hagan in a young one-two punch with freakish potential.
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