Melbourne set to lose big in trade deal with North Melbourne
Melbourne backed themselves the fly up the ladder after striking a trade deal with North Melbourne last year for its first round pick. However, it’s the Kangaroos who will be laughing all the way to the draft.
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Melbourne is staring down the barrel of a disastrous trade deal with North Melbourne as it stagnates in second-last on the ladder.
The Demons backed themselves in to fly up the ladder when they secured the Roos’ No.8 selection of 2019 for last year’s No.26 and 50 picks plus this year’s first-rounder.
North Melbourne would have won the trade on pure points value even if the Demons finished first this year given Melbourne’s determination to secure the impressive Kosi Pickett.
But with the Demons languishing in second-last spot, the trade will be woefully imbalanced unless they can rise up the ladder in the next 12 weeks.
Every selection in the national draft is allocated a points total so clubs can weigh its value in complicated trades.
The Demons have an extra game in hand but even on a comparison that puts them third-last given an extra win the imbalance is jarring.
North Melbourne currently has 3226 draft points in the deal compared to the Demons’ 1551, with the Demons effectively handed an extra No.8 selection in points value.
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The Roos have their own first-rounder this year plus the Demons selection at pick two, having been prepared to bide their time last year.
The Roos picked up Charlie Comben with pick 31, Jack Mahony with pick 34 and Flynn Perez at pick 35, with Mahony having already made an impressive debut.
Melbourne was able to trade back into the second round of the draft last year and secure the exciting half back Trent Rivers so can still save its position with late-season wins.
Carlton eventually saved itself from what seemed a disastrous deal to hand its 2019 first-round draft pick to Adelaide to secure Liam Stocker in the 2018 national draft.
Last year it seemed they would hand over a top-three selection to Adelaide but they won six of their last 11 games and Adelaide finished 11th.
It meant Carlton secured the No.9 pick and split it to turn it into No.17 draft pick Brodie Kemp and No.20 pick Sam Philp, who has made his debut.
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The Blues believe Stocker will eventually be a hard running inside mid but he hasn’t featured in selection this year.
If Melbourne had kept its first-rounder this year and played finals it could have been pushed well back by father-son and academy bidding.
Trading up was a sound strategy given Pickett’s encouraging tackling pressure – if not offensive output yet – but relied upon the Demons playing well in 2020.
“Part of our strategy during this trade period was to improve our draft position by using our future picks,” football boss Josh Mahoney said after the trade.
“Next year’s draft will have a high number of talented Academy players, and we value another top selection in this draft.
“Clubs can trade picks right up until the draft and on draft night under AFL rules and having picks 3 and 8 gives us options and flexibility.”
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Veteran list builder Chris Pelchen told the Herald Sun future trades were always predicated on your side performing well the following season.
“Future trading is always risky because you are speculating. When you are trading players its about exposed form but when you are talking about future trading is not exposed form. Maybe in terms of the players you bring in but the draft by its very nature is a higher-risk venture than trading player for players.
“In terms of the North Melbourne deal, North Melbourne are ahead in that trade. Time will tell what that pick becomes. At the time I could see why both clubs did that deal but future trading is risky and ultimately people judge future trading in retrospect while the deals are made prospectively. It’s very much a risk in itself.”
Originally published as Melbourne set to lose big in trade deal with North Melbourne