Melbourne edging closer to premiership window but must close gap between its best and worst

MELBOURNE looks on track to crack open its premiership window, but just how quickly can it get there? JAY CLARK on the Demons’ 2017 progress. HAVE YOUR SAY

MELBOURNE is like a high-performance sports car still in development.

When the engine fires it’s one of the loudest, most powerful cars on the street.

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And the patient list build that has delivered a bevy of emerging stars and bona fide guns including Jack Viney, Jesse Hogan, Christian Petracca, Clayton Oliver and Jayden Hunt looks on track to crack open their premiership window, probably from 2019 onwards.

The Demons stunned the competition slamming home nine-straight goals to upset premiership heavyweights Adelaide on its own patch in Round 8.

You could argue it was their best win in almost a decade.

But there have also been some semi-regular tyre blowouts in 2017, testing the white-knuckle faith of the Melbourne supporter base, which is in its 11th year of a finals drought.

Max Gawn is nearing an AFL return. Picture: Michael Klein

Nathan Jones has been his dependable self in 2017. Picture: Getty Images

Understandably, the fans are thirsty for even a drop of September action, and the lack of urgency in the first term against Hawthorn, in particular, was a major let-down.

When Melbourne plays poorly, the stench wafts across the entire ground.

Clearly, they look more dangerous as the outsider, rather than the favourite, and Demons’ champion Garry Lyon said there was mental frailty at play.

“Their best football is as exciting as anyone’s in the competition, but Simon Goodwin’s greatest challenge is psychological — to get them to buy into psychologically buy into the fact that being a good side and a contender means you deal with expectation,” Lyon said.

In only the fourth year of the Peter Jackson reset, it does remain unclear whether the Demons are yet ready to deal with these increasing expectations.

They remind us of Geelong in about 2003-04, so fans shouldn’t fret too much.

The good has easily outweighed the bad at Melbourne this season considering the heavy injury toll and their age demographic. They’re still one of the four-youngest and most inexperienced teams every week.

And even without star talls Max Gawn (hamstring surgery) and Jesse Hogan (testicular cancer), Melbourne has still won the fourth-most quarters this season.

The return of arguably their two most important players over the next month will provide an enormous boost to a spine that has relied heavily on makeshift ruckmen and forwards such as Cameron Pedersen and Jack Watts over the past few months.

Watts can go back to playing as a third forward and Tom McDonald can slot into a defence that has relied heavily on Oscar McDonald and Neville Jetta.

The no-fuss Jetta has to be one of the most underrated players in the league the way he shuts down the gun livewires each week and Jeff Garlett has had arguably his best start to a season in a forward pocket.

Yet the Dees haven’t made excuses for their up-and-down form, with cool-as-a-cucumber Simon Goodwin talking repeatedly about their education and growth.

The team is still in a maturing period and they will busy at trade time again this year adding another prime big man, probably for the defence.

ROBBO SAYS:

When they’re on they can beat the best sides, but Gawn injured, Lewis suspended and Hogan out (family bereavement then cancer treatment) has meant the Demons are close but not close enough.

Most observers predicted the Demons would play finals. They are 5-5, have lost two games by single figures and can gather the troops for a finals run.

They are good enough, but at this stage of their development, they need their best players on the park, which will happen soon. Reckon they can play finals.

ADAM COONEY SAYS:

There have been games this year where the Dees have had a Simon Goodwin and times where they’ve had a Simon Badloss (see what I did there).

Losses against North, Freo and the Hawks could bite them in the back end down the back end but, similar to the Saints, their best footy is finals material. Staring down the barrel at halftime against the Suns in Alice, Nathan Jones nearly single-handedly breathed life back into the Demons’ season after a trademark Gold Coast fadeout.

Good to see the sloppy rig of Mick Hibberd out there, his form has been terrific. I’m also loving the work of chocolate milk-drinking, owl-loving weirdo Jayden Hunt. His run and line-breaking is critical to their ball movement.

Adam Cooney is a fan of Jayden Hunt ... we think. Picture: Wayne Ludbey

SEASON SNAPSHOT (9th 5 wins 5 losses 111.7%)

SO FAR ...

R1 W30 St Kilda

R2 W22 Carlton

R3 L29 Geelong

R4 L2 Fremantle

R5 L13 Richmond

R6 W28 Essendon

R7 W3 Hawthorn

R8 W41 Adelaide

R9 L14 North Melbourne

R10 W35 Gold Coast

THE RUN HOME ...

R12 Collingwood MCG

R13 Western Bulldogs ES

R14 West Coast S

R15 Sydney MCG

R16 Carlton MCG

R17 Adelaide TIO

R18 Port Adelaide MCG

R19 North Melbourne BA

R20 GWS Manuka

R21 St Kilda MCG

R22 Brisbane MCG

R23 Collingwood MCG

Former Bomber Michael Hibberd has been a success at Melbourne. Picture: Wayne Ludbey

HITS AND MISSES

MONEY MAN

Former Bomber Michael Hibberd has been outstanding gathering at least 27 possessions in five of his six games. Despite an early Achilles injury, the tough and hard-running defender could still be the trade of the year (for pick No. 29) and win the Dees’ best and fairest. Great pick-up.

STOCKS RISING

Clayton Oliver has stormed into Brownlow Medal calculations with a sensational start to his second season. Inside the centre square, his speed and bravery to scoop up the ball in congestion has won All-Australian acclaim. His handballing and vision in exquisite. Only 19.

IT’S A BUST

Angus Brayshaw has played only two senior games this year due to repeated head knocks that has put his career on hold. The hard nut midfielder will aim to play in another month or so, depending on medical clearance.

Clayton Oliver has become a star. Picture: Wayne Ludbey

TRADE FORECAST

GOING, GOING?

Melbourne looks to be going places under new coach Simon Goodwin, so it’d be surprising if anyone wanted out of the club. There may again be speculation on Jack Watts’ future at the end of the year.

COMING?

Zak Jones. All eyes are on the emerging Swan’s contract status, but the Dees would love the younger brother of co-captain, Nathan. The hard-running defender would add another string to the midfield run. The Dees may also be in the hunt for a big man to bolster their growing defence.

Could Sydney's Zak Jones be tempted to join his brother? Picture. Phil Hillyard

STATS LEADERS

SuperCoach Points (Ave)

Clayton Oliver 112

Nathan Jones 104

Michael Hibberd 101

Cameron Pedersen 99

Jack Viney 99

Disposals (Ave)

Clayton Oliver 30.9

Michael Hibberd 28.8

Nathan Jones 27.4

Jordan Lewis 27.1

Dom Tyson 25.6

Kick Rating (Ave)

Jayden Hunt +8.1%

Neville Jetta +6.6%

Christian Salem +6.4%

Sam Frost +3.7%

Alex Neal-Bullen +3.7%

Contested Possessions (Ave)

Clayton Oliver 14.9

Jack Viney 11.9

Jordan Lewis 10

Nathan Jones 9.5

Christian Petracca 9.4

Uncontested Possessions (Ave)

Michael Hibberd 20.8

Nathan Jones 18.6

Jordan Lewis 17.6

Dom Tyson 17.4

Clayton Oliver 16.3

Jeff Garlett (centre), seen here with teammates Neville Jetta (left) and Dom Tyson, leads the Demons goalkicking. Picture: Getty Images

Metres Gained (Ave)

Michael Hibberd 554

Jayden Hunt 441

Nathan Jones 436

Dom Tyson 383

Jake Melksham 360

Intercept Possessions (Ave)

Sam Frost 7.6

Michael Hibberd 7.3

Bernie Vince 6

Neville Jetta 5.2

Jayden Hunt 5

Goals

Jeff Garlett 25

Jack Watts 14

Mitch Hannan 13

Christian Petracca 13

Nathan Jones 10

Score Involvements (Ave)

Nathan Jones 7.2

Cameron Pedersen 7

Christian Petracca 6.3

Jack Watts 6.2

Jeff Garlett 6.1

Pressure Points (Ave)

Jack Viney 61.3

Clayton Oliver 53.1

Alex Neal-Bullen 49.4

Jeff Garlett 43.5

Cameron Pedersen 40.5

FINALS ANALYSIS

Top 8 — $2.10

Flag — $26

It’s a challenging draw that confronts Melbourne over the next two months but the Dees have a big-game appetite. It’s the lower-placed teams, strangely, which can test them the most. The two games against Collingwood will determine whether they take Fremantle’s spot in the eight.

Odds: TAB

Originally published as Melbourne edging closer to premiership window but must close gap between its best and worst