Mick McGuane: GWS’ ability to capitalise on turnovers will be difference in elimination final against Western Bulldogs

Turnovers could be the key statistic in GWS Giants’ elimination final against Western Bulldogs, writes Mick McGuane. Here’s why he thinks they could be decisive.

Western Bulldogs young gun Bailey Smith tries to burst through a Josh Kelly tackle. Picture: Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images.

Stephen Coniglio’s landmark decision to re-sign with GWS is what I would call one of footy’s ‘immeasurable intangibles’.

It’s incredible for morale, it gives you a great vibe to feed off, which can become infectious amongst the group going into a finals campaign.

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But let me tell you, it doesn’t guarantee you a win.

What the Giants need to focus on is this from a coaching standpoint:

There’s a loose ball, now get your f***ing head over it.

That is measurable. That is what’s got to be done next week against the Western Bulldogs.

Because if the last month is any indication, the Giants will be out first round if they don’t get things right.

Western Bulldogs Marcus Bontempelli releases the ball under pressure from Matt De Boer. Picture: Phil Hillyard.

To put it bluntly, GWS are one trick ponies.

They’re only averaging 43.9 points per game from turnovers. That’s ranked 13th in the competition. The next lowest finalist is Essendon at 45.4.

As I’ve been saying for most of the season, GWS are a side with one strength — and that’s their stoppage game.

More than 46 per cent of the Giants score has come from stoppages this season, which is clearly the highest percentage of any team.

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But to win finals footy when it’s the best against the best, their turnover game must increase because on that count they’re ranked last of all the teams that are left.

Against the Bulldogs, if you don’t score against them on turnover, it’s going to be a long day at the office.

Taylor Duryea crunches Lachie Whitfield in a stinging tackle. Picture: Phil Hillyard.

In AFL footy, there are three scoring sources: score from kick-ins, score from stoppage and score from turnovers and as it stands; GWS have only mastered one facet.

Make no mistake. This will be a frenetic final against the Bulldogs and the Giants’ training over the next few days has to somehow prepare them for this intensity, without sapping energy before the contest even begins.

One thing GWS must improve is their ball movement from their defensive 50 into their forward 50 entry.

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Over the last four weeks GWS have taken just 10 per cent of their defensive 50 chains into a forward 50 — ranked 18th.

For a team with a reputation as a pure, skilful, ball moving team, this is clearly not the case at the moment.

If you take that a bit deeper, the Giants have scored just 23 points from their defensive half chains over the last four weeks. That’s ranked 14th.

Western Bulldogs young gun Bailey Smith tries to burst through a Josh Kelly tackle. Picture: Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images.

So surely, ball movement and ball security will be on their training menu.

Against a very good scoring team like the Western Bulldogs, you’ve got to add every component to your game to be as complete as you can be to win finals footy.

The Bulldogs are averaging 116 points for across the last four rounds, ranked No. 1 in the comp. They can score.

So the Giants defence up against the Bulldogs forwards, will be a test of wills. There’s going to be a lot of life or death scenarios. A lot of opportunities for turnover.

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It’s what they do with those turnovers they create that will be critical to the outcome of this do-or-die final. They just have to find a way to impact the scoreboard post turnover.

What should the GWS mantra be? Control, control, control.

The Giants can’t afford to turn it over because right now, the Bulldogs are the third best team at scoring from turnover in 2019.

They have a good formula.

You give them a look, on current form, the ball will go straight back over your head with GST.

Originally published as Mick McGuane: GWS’ ability to capitalise on turnovers will be difference in elimination final against Western Bulldogs