The stats that show Geelong’s dramatic drop off so far in 2023
Geelong’s midfield and defence has battled to start the season but it is up in the forward half where individual players have fallen the most since last year. See who needs to lift.
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The stark fall away in Geelong’s forward half has been laid bare as the numbers show how far the premiership attackers have fallen to start 2023.
Geelong’s issues have come primarily through the midfield and defence in the early rounds, as opposition sides beat up the Cats around the ball and move forward in transition with ease.
But it is upfront where the individual Cats have dropped off the most.
Unsung for his defensive work and cleanliness with the ball, Brad Close is in the first real slump of his young career, Tom Hawkins is battling to find touch after off-season foot surgery and Tyson Stengle is no where near as dangerous as he was in his stunning All-Australian 2022 season.
These are the six Cats that have dropped the most and will need to lift as Geelong attempts to climb out of a 0-3 hole on Monday against Hawthorn.
Ranking points percentage decrease in 2023, compared to 2022: -51
The struggle of Geelong’s forwards is partially due to the way the Cats have played in the early rounds and a simple fall in form.
All of Close’s basic stats are well below his career averages and alarmingly, he is not just struggling to find the ball but his tackle average has fallen from 3.7 a game in 2022 to just 1.7 this year.
Time Close to roll up those long sleeves and get back to work.
Ranking points percentage decrease: -48
The champion goalkicker has the best excuse of any Cats on this list, as he and the coaches fully expected a slow warm up into the season after a detailed toe reconstruction post-premiership.
The struggles have been stark though, with goalkicking legend Matthew Lloyd querying this week whether keeping Hawkins out there to start the year had hurt his brand.
Just three goals in the opening three rounds is Hawkins’ lowest tally to start a year since 2011. He should get better from here.
Tyson Stengle
Ranking points percentage decrease: -48
To give Stengle credit, he was probably Geelong’s best player in the early stages of round 1 before tweaking his ankle and copping a collision with Jeremy Howe.
Since he has battled and managed just nine disposals against Gold Coast.
Stengle booted seven goals in the opening two rounds of 2022 to set up an All-Australian year, he hasn’t troubled the scorers in the last fortnight.
Cam Guthrie
Ranking points percentage decrease: -24
Guthrie has personified Geelong’s midfield struggles – so prolific in recent years, he simply couldn’t get his hands on it in the first two weeks.
Started in defence in round 3 but moved into the midfield and had 28 touches, showing signs he could be on the way back.
Ranking points percentage decrease: -21
The quiet truth about Blicavs in the past few years is he is Geelong’s best ruckman, but he is too valuable to play there full-time.
The Cats have generally looked better when he is in ruck and he could be in need of a run-with role if playing as a true midfielder.
Jed Bews
Ranking points percentage decrease: -20
Never the greatest user of the ball, Bews has cratered by foot so far this year and his kicking efficiency sits at just 50 per cent.
As a running defender, that is not good enough.
His defensive work has been solid however.
Stats show Geelong’s struggles to open season
Geelong’s fall away around the contest is “definitely something to look at” according to midfielder Mark Blicavs as the stats lay bare how far the Cats have tumbled.
The engine room at Geelong has been one of the most reliable in the league in recent years, with the likes of Patrick Dangerfield, Cam Guthrie and Joel Selwood helping to dominate around the clinches.
While Selwood has gone, the rest of Geelong’s midfield remains in tact but has slumped in the opening rounds.
After ranking fourth in the league last year for contested possession differential the Cats sit last three rounds in, according to numbers from Champion Data.
Following a 39-23 belting clearances on the Gold Coast on Sunday, the Cats now rank 17th in clearance differential, after being fourth in 2022.
Not able to win the ball at the source, Geelong hasn’t been able to get it on the outside either, ranking 17th for disposals and 15th for both marks and uncontested possessions.
After the Cats fell away dramatically in the second half to the Suns, Blicavs admitted there was a lot of work to be done.
“It’s definitely something to look at,” he said.
“I think we came in at halftime and those numbers looked pretty even but then again they got the game on their terms and their balance around the contest was pretty good.
“We were a bit fumbly and they managed to get it going their way.
“That is one for us to potentially fix up.
“That’s the positives and the negatives of playing in the midfield, you do get that first chance and it’s great when it comes off and not great when it doesn’t.
“We will be working hard as a group to correct that.”
With the midfield sputtering, an undermanned Geelong defence is also paying the price.
The Cats were the best team in the AFL last year at stopping the opposition moving the ball from its defensive arc to the forward 50.
But the sluggish Cats currently rank 14th in the league and 16th for allowing opposition scores from the back half, after ranking third in 2022. Veteran Mitch Duncan (calf) is available to play against Hawthorn on Monday should help Geelong’s midfield and defence but Sam De Koning (concussion) will miss the round 4 blockbuster.
CATS STOPPAGE WOES
Stat – 2022 rank – 2023 rank Disposal differential – 6th – 17th
Contested possession differential – 4th – 18th
Uncontested possession differential – 8th – 15th
Marks differential – 10th – 15th
Clearance differential – 4th – 17th
DEFENCE ON THE SKIDS
Stat – 2022 – 2023
Opposition points from defensive half – 3rd – 16th
Opposition defensive 50 to inside 50 – 1st – 14th
Opposition half back to inside 50 – 1st – 15th
Source: Champion Data
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