AFL: Why Cats are primed for 2025 flag tilt

Despite a hiccup against Brisbane, a mid-season analysis reveals why Geelong is ideally placed to run deep into September, again. See the numbers behind their form.

Max Holmes has been a star Cat. Photo: AFL Photos.

Geelong is set for another premiership push this September.

Heading into their Round 16 bye, the Cats are comfortably inside the top-four and look set to earn a double chance.

Chris Scott’s men were convincingly beaten by Brisbane to sit at 10-5 but the coach said he wasn’t too concerned by that result.

“If that’s a pattern throughout your games, then you’ve got a problem, and you may not be a very good team,” Scott said.

“But I don’t think that’s the case with us, it hasn’t been a pattern, it was just a bad game to have an off-night.

We break down why the Cats are performing so strongly once again.

BEATING THE BEST

Two of the Cats’ five losses this season have come against Brisbane but they’ve consistently proven they’re a force against the other sides currently in the top half of the ladder. Scott’s men have beaten Fremantle, Adelaide, Hawthorn, Collingwood, Western Bulldogs and Gold Coast. Champion Data figures reveal the Cats’ offence is driving their premiership push. Scott’s men rank first for points for against the top teams and are third for scores per inside 50 head-to-head with those opponents. Points from turnover is a critical factor stat in teams pushing for the premiership and the Cats rank third among against the top nine teams.

Tyson Stengle (left) and Patrick Dangerfield. Photo: AFL Photos.

CAT ATTACK

With Coleman Medal leader Jeremy Cameron at the forefront, Geelong has access to one of the most damaging forward lines in the competition. The Cats rank second for points per game at 98.5 and fifth for points scored from forward half. Importantly, when the Cats go forward opposition teams battle to get it out. Scott’s side retains the ball 51 per cent of the time when they go inside 50, second in the competition.

A lot of that comes down to the likes of Gryan Miers and Tyson Stengle.

“They’re two of the best kicks going forward, you’d love them delivering you the footy,” former Carlton star Eddie Betts told this masthead ahead of Stengle’s 100th game last week.

Opposition teams have learnt the hard way, the Cats will punish you if you give them the chance. They rank first for forward 50 marks, second for scores per inside 50 and fourth for forward 50 ground balls.

Bailey Smith has been a sensational recruit. Photo: Getty Images.

THE STARS

Who is the better Brownlow Medal chance, Bailey Smith or Max Holmes? Well it depends who you ask.

Smith has slotted seamlessly into the Geelong midfield with his flowing long locks making him the AFL’s best recruit of the year and one of the favourites for footy’s greatest honour.

After missing all of 2024 with an ACL injury, the former Bulldog is number 1 in the AFL for disposals and metres gained. Many of his disposals are a result of his hard, off-the-ball running, sometimes unrewarded.

For all of the off-field attention Smith has brought to the club, Geelong would be high-fiving themselves for landing the AFL’s most marketable player.

Holmes has grown into arguably the Cats’ most important player. The heartbreaking story of the 2022 flag, after suffering a hamstring injury in the preliminary final, the 22-year-old has been the fifth rated player in the competition in the last six rounds.

His line-breaking ability makes him a difficult match-up for any player as few opponents possess his running power.

The attacking flair the duo bring to the middle of the ground has been highlighted by the fact the Cats are averaging 41.6 points from clearance this season — their best since Scott took over as coach in 2011.

UNHERALDED HEROES

If you’ve watched a Geelong game this season, it’s probably no surprise to learn Tom Atkins is the best tackler in the AFL, given the commentators mention it almost every quarter. But his game is about so much more than that.

In a career best season, as he approaches game 150 in the blue and white hoops, Atkins has already earned a new two-year deal. The one word which comes to mind about his role is balance. As the big guns — Holmes and Smith — draw the headlines, Atkins is the perfect midfielder leveller. He does the grunt work which allows the aforementioned to break the game open. One stat which might surprise you is Atkins was ranked fourth among all players for tackles inside forward 50 in the AFL heading into Round 16 with teammate Tyson Stengle second with 30 — an underrated part of his game.

Then there’s Oisin Mullin who is out of contract at season’s end and came into the year arguably fighting for his career. The Irishman who is in his third season at the Cattery has often been deployed as a stopper at various points this year and has played key roles in stopping big names including Nick Daicos and Zak Butters.

TON WATCH

No player has booted 100 goals since Hawthorn superstar Buddy Franklin in 2008. Geelong’s best individual goal tally was Tom Hawkins in 2014 with 68. Cameron has to be considered an outside chance to go close to the ton with 48 so far for the season. He looks on track to beat a career best season in front of goal — his previous best was 76 for GWS in 2019. With Geelong’s soft draw for the remaining eight games, Cameron may get an opportunity to fill his boots in several games. The unselfish nature of the star forward is one reason it probably won’t happen. Cameron is one of two key forwards in the competition who ranks elite for disposals and forward 50 marks. He’s often been at his best at his season when he’s played closer to goal but given Geelong’s forward six has been so flexible, his positioning could be a determining factor.

Jeremy Cameron is having a brilliant season. Photo: AFL Photos.

RUN HOME

It’s the softest draw of just any side in the current top-eight with just one game against teams currently ninth or higher on the ladder. Miss the top-four and even the most optimistic Cats fans would have to declare it a disaster. There wouldn’t be much shock if the Cats managed to go 8-0 after the bye but they are prone to the odd slip up.

The loss to Brisbane may have been the perfect wake up call. On paper, the trip to Sydney to take on Adam Kingsley’s Giants is the toughest game on the run home.

Like all coaches do, Scott will tell us there’s no easy games on the run home but with a top-four finish again looming likely, even the most experienced mentor would like to face more finals hardened opponents to tune up for the business end.

PLAYER MANAGEMENT

We’ve read all the jokes, ‘Geelong are so old their players should be in a retirement home’. Laugh all you want but the Cats coaching staff are in the perfect position to manage their players through the rest of the season. Skipper Patrick Dangerfield will likely get another rest as will other veterans including Mark Blicavs, Rhys Stanley and Mitch Duncan.

Sam De Koning is currently on the injury list with a shoulder injury and there’s no need to rush him back. The Cats have arguably the greatest defensive coverage in the competition when you remember Jed Bews and Jake Kolodjashnij (sidelined with a groin injury) are also currently out of the side.

Cam Guthrie is a work in progress but if and when he does reach peak fitness does he even break back into a side which is humming?

Given their wonderful start to the season, the Cats can play the long game to make sure they’re primed for a premiership push.

Originally published as AFL: Why Cats are primed for 2025 flag tilt