Collingwood has major injury and form issues, but don’t dismiss the Magpies as a contender in 2020
Collingwood has key players missing but that’s not the only reason the season has gone pear-shaped. Here are the Pies’ 11 major issues — and why you shouldn’t write them off just yet.
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It’s hard to believe Collingwood can win the flag with the flat, lifeless football it is playing under Nathan Buckley.
But before you write off their premiership chances, rewind a year and consider Damien Hardwick’s Tigers at exactly this point in the season.
From Rounds 11-13 as their injury toll bit hard, they were smacked by North Melbourne (37 points), Geelong (67 points) and Adelaide (33 points).
Yes, the same Adelaide that can’t win a game right now.
It got them almost exactly where Collingwood is at right now – 7-6 compared to the Pies’ current 6-5-1 win-loss record.
So before the click-baiters and fake opinionators tell you they can’t win the flag, consider what Richmond did.
They tweaked the issues with their game plan, got healthy again, and in Richmond’s case, peeled off a dozen consecutive wins to make the finals.
So what exactly is wrong with Collingwood and how can they fix it before their season does tailspin into oblivion?
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1. Ravaged by injury
When Collingwood walked off Optus Stadium having beaten Geelong by 22 points in Round 7, it had four wins, two losses and a draw.
Jordan De Goey had just kicked 5.1 and the Pies were contenders.
It’s no secret their horror schedule – four games in 14 days – has intersected with their shock injury toll.
De Goey’s finger tendon injury was dumb luck – snagged on an opposition player’s jumper.
Scott Pendlebury tweaked a quad in a rare first soft-tissue concern after playing 20 games or more in 12 of the past 13 seasons.
And then Jeremy Howe’s PCL strain was accentuated when Jordan Roughead was concussed in the narrow win over Adelaide.
No one should be surprised about Adam Treloar’s recurrent hamstring tendon strain, or Ben Reid’s latest – and last – soft tissue tear.
Collingwood has some players who have had a history of continually getting injured, from Jamie Elliott to Reid to Treloar to Darcy Moore.
But the one thing they didn’t need was freak injuries like their one reliable key forward Brody Mihocek being knocked out and it’s exactly what happened through this period.
Of the contenders they are clearly No.1 for injuries lost and third overall (65 games to their best 22) behind North Melbourne (86) and Fremantle (72).
2. A terrible lack of mid-forward connection
Collingwood just can’t get it done inside 50.
From Rounds 8-12, the Pies have slumped to 15th for scores inside-50 and 16th for points scored.
They lack polish, they lack clear leading targets, they lack X-factor, they lack accuracy inside 50.
And without De Goey they don’t have a focal point, or a player who at the very least can attract two defenders even when he isn’t kicking goals.
3. Let’s name names, starting with Jaidyn Stephenson
Stephenson has had chances to be the man inside 50 all year, but hasn’t been able to grasp them.
He was seen as clearly the best player in his draft at one stage and a player who would turn into footy’s best wingman.
He is down from 15 touches last year and floats in and out of games, which is why Nathan Buckley dropped him last week despite crying out for that kind of player.
He should be isolated from the goalsquare being hit up on darting leads but instead he’s running around in scratch matches.
He hasn’t had 100 ranking points in 10 games – for a return of 10.5 – and as Mick McGuane says, looks to be timid and is avoiding contact.
He has played 87 per cent forward and 13 per cent on the wing after 96 per cent forward last year, so instead of being the answer he’s another of Nathan Buckley’s issues.
4. Jamie Elliott
If Stephenson isn’t the man, surely Jamie Elliott should be?
In a resounding endorsement of the Pies’ fitness staff, he has played 11 of 12 games for the season.
But playing 68 per cent forward, he has kicked 6.7 and five missed shots for the year.
That’s six goals from 18 shots.
He has kicked three goals in seven games.
This from a player who kicked 35.14 in 2015 and 35.16 in 2017.
He is another mid-sized forward who could be a target from the goalsquare at times but isn’t getting it done.
5. Brodie Grundy’s impact
Big on nice statistics, down on real impact.
Grundy’s Champion Data profile reads fine – averaging 126 ranking points for the year after 131 the past two seasons, still averaging 35 hitouts and 9.2 to advantage, averaging 15 touches.
But the real test – the eye test – shows not only are his ruck opponents breaking even or winning, he has been down on those big defining moments or quarters that break open games.
His only really bad game was when Nic Naitanui smacked him, but he’s doing that to everyone.
But Reilly O’Brien got the better of Grundy in the Adelaide game and Nathan Buckley admits his output has been down.
As Buckley said, he was back to form against Melbourne – 148 ranking points, 10 hitouts to advantage, six tackles, eight clearances.
They need him to dominate like never before.
6. Jordan De Goey’s absence
Like few players apart from Dustin Martin or Christian Petracca, he is Buckley’s Mr Fixit.
Forward line battling? Chuck him forward and let him go to work.
Need a centre square clearance? Whack him in there for 10 minutes and marvel at his bullocking strength and explosiveness.
Contrary to popular belief he doesn’t always get the No.1 defender (2020 opponents have been Aiden Corr, Nathan Broad and Dylan Grimes, Zaine Cordy, Ben Paton, Jordan Ridley).
But as Dale Morris told the Herald Sun on Monday, he creates havoc with defensive mismatches then just as a back six has him under control, he rolls into the midfield where he is the onball unit’s issue.
Collingwood is very confident his tendon injury will have healed by finals and he is getting a power of work in until then, but will they have to win four finals given their ladder position?
7. The defence is leaking scores
West Coast put 111 points on them and Melbourne 100, and if both teams kicked accurately it belies the fact they used the Pies as their plaything with quick ball movement, which creates shots from in front.
The defence was No.1 in the competition from Rounds 1-7 but is 17th from Rounds 8-12.
It’s an extraordinary statistic.
Jeremy Howe’s injury was always going to bite but the trickle-down effect is starting to hurt as well.
Against Melbourne Darcy Moore had a single mark despite averaging 4.9 for the season.
He was exceptional against Fremantle with five intercept marks and 13 intercept possessions.
But in a back line without Howe or fellow intercept marker Tom Langdon he had a single intercept mark against Sydney in Round 10, was managed in Round 11 and took a single mark against the Demons.
The Pies aren’t winning the ball back from defence and using that line as a springboard like before.
8. Too many role players?
The beauty of Nathan Buckley’s coaching is that he was able to realise he was wrong on Chris Mayne, find a role for him, build the relationship, and allow him to flourish.
The injuries have exposed the depth and players like Tim Broomhead, Jack Madgen, Josh Thomas have come in and out of the side with very little impact.
Tom Phillips has been pushed back and forth from the wing to half forward and has battled to make an impact.
The perfect blend of matchwinners and good honest toilers has tipped too far into the toiler category.
9. Players badly out of form
Compare the club’s 2019 Champion Data ranking points to their 2020 averages and it tells the tale of players just out of form.
Jaidyn Stephenson is the biggest drop (Stephenson largest drop off – 80.2 to 68.2), ahead of Will Hoskin-Elliott (68.1 to 57.9), Jordan Roughead (63.2 to 54.7), Josh Thomas (63.5 to 55.1), Tom Phillips (82.9 to 75.3) and Mason Cox (54 to 46.4).
10. What about Mason Cox?
Buckley’s decision not to play him since Round 6 despite crying out for a focal point tells you about his confidence in him to get it done.
Clearly his scratch match form hasn’t been good enough for a second chance either, but this week he might have to throw him in.
This year he rates poor for marks, ranking points, forward-50 marks.
In his four games for the year has taken five contested marks.
But last time out in Round 6 against Hawthorn he had five possessions (two kicks), not a single mark, not a single tackle and 39 ranking points.
If he gets a crack at it this week or soon, he’s playing for his career given he hasn’t ticked off a game-based clause for 2021.
11. The ongoing distractions
Maybe Collingwood has grown used to them, as an investigation into Heritier Lumumba’s racism controversy bubbles away in the background and twin COVID breaches are in the rear-view mirror.
But put it this way – how many times can you summon that backs-to-the-wall ethos when under siege?
Nathan Buckley and Brenton Sanderson had to rearrange meetings when they were isolated over their tennis hit and giggle, while Steele Sidebottom missed four weeks for his bizarre breach.
De Goey wasn’t considered for the Hawthorn victory after he was charged with sexual assault, flown straight to Perth.
How much coaching and football department time has been taken up by these distractions, as Scott Pendlebury raged at an article about Heritier Lumumba as clickbait again last week?
Every team has some distractions but when even this club’s greatest media supporters are raising it as an issue you have to consider it is real.
AND WHY THE PIES AREN’T OUT OF THE RACE …
1. The draw opens up for the Pies even if they still face Brisbane and Port Adelaide on the way home
They face the Roos off a nine-day break, Carlton off a six-day break before Brisbane off five days, which poses a challenge.
Then they get 10 days before they take on the Suns on a Monday of Round 17, before what could be a quick turnaround against Port Adelaide in the floating Round 18 fixture.
If they are contenders they will beat the Roos for some breathing space, but the Blues game is must-win given the tougher run coming up.
2. Australia’s COVID numbers
Victoria’s coronavirus numbers are dropping gradually but across the country they are stabilising enough for the AFL to believe they don’t have to race through the AFL season without a bye.
It means the league will likely slot in that pre-finals bye and then play a Thursday final on October 1 as the kick-off to its finals campaign.
It gives Howe, De Goey and Treloar six weeks and three days at a minimum to get right for that first final.
3. Tom Langdon
He won’t win the flag by himself but his progression back from a knee injury that at one stage seemed likely to push into retirement at least gives Pies fans hope.
He continues to build his fitness in scratch matches.
His 2015-2018 seasons were hugely consistent as he averaged between 6.4 and 8 intercept possessions a game and 80-86 ranking points.
He could shut down his man and float across packs when Howe or Moore were otherwise occupied.
At the very least it’s a heartwarming tale.
4. The kids
Josh Daicos improves by the week, his matchwinner against Sydney a clear highlight.
Trey Ruscoe didn’t sniff it (four touches) against Melbourne but has kicked three goals in the previous two games with a bit of flair and some theatrics with his goalscoring antics.
Cal Brown was poor against Melbourne but has put together 11 solid games off the back of 22 last year while brother Tyler played the first five games of the year.
And in Darcy Cameron there are real glimpses as well as frustrations, the ex-Swan taking 14 contested marks for the year but going from five against Adelaide (and nine total marks) to a single mark against the Demons.
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Originally published as Collingwood has major injury and form issues, but don’t dismiss the Magpies as a contender in 2020