Collingwood behind the ledger in finals race but fixture provides hope

THE Pies’ resurgence has raised hopes of a finals appearance. We look at Collingwood’s run home to see whether Nathan Buckley’s men can reach September. VOTE

Adam Treloar celebrates a goal against Fremantle with teammates. Picture: AAP

COLLINGWOOD’S form resurgence has raised hopes the Pies are a genuine finals chance.

While much of the focus continues to be on Nathan Buckley’s future at Collingwood, the Pies’ resurrection looms as a major story.

BAROMETER: PIES’ QUEEN’S BIRTHDAY PAIN

THE TACKLE: GOLDY’S GUTS EPITOMISES PIES CHANGE

Now having won three in a row, a decision on the coach’s ongoing employment — in which Buckley himself placed a caveat of finals or bust — could be made an easy one for Pies officials if the club can continue its surge up the AFL table.

And despite a couple of injury concerns following Sunday’s gutsy win over Fremantle, a glimpse at the fixture should give Pies fans plenty of reason to hold off on booking that September holiday.

Jamie Elliott has joined the Pies’ injury list. Picture: Getty Images

Of its remaining 11 matches, five are against teams currently in the eight — however the good news is four of those are in Melbourne (three at the MCG).

In fact eight of Collingwood’s final 11 matches are at the MCG, with another at Etihad Stadium.

There’s plenty more to a successful season than the fixture, and as Jay Clark wrote in Saturday’s Herald Sun, the Pies are on the move, an improvement in their ball movement a key to their recent hot streak.

In what shapes as one of the tightest AFL seasons on record — and one that’s proved a tipping nightmare — it’s tough to predict any game.

Things are looking up for Nathan Buckley.

Any team with Scott Pendlebury in it will take some beating. Picture: AAP

But 12 wins, and a decent percentage, might be enough for a team to scrape into the finals.

The Pies, who sit 10th on the table, are just a game behind the eighth-placed Fremantle but boast a significantly healthier percentage.

So, we’ve granted ourselves a little creative license and have got out the old crystal ball to have a look at Collingwood’s run for the remainder of the home and away season.

We’ve stated our case as to whether we think the Pies will win or lose each match ... time will tell just how far off we are.

FINALS OR BUST? THE PIES RUN HOME

ROUND 12

v Melbourne, MCG — 3:20pm

WE SAY: Genuine eight-point game given the Dees are just above the Pies on the ladder. Wounded but full of confidence, we reckon Bucks’ boys can get it done against a Melbourne side that’s yo-yo-ing its way through 2017.

VERDICT: WIN

ROUND 13 — BYE

ROUND 14

v Port Adelaide, MCG — 1.45pm

WE SAY: Tough one. Port has showed itself a true top-four contender, and will want to flex its muscle at the home of footy.

VERDICT: LOSS

ROUND 15

v Hawthorn, MCG — 3.20pm

WE SAY: Wearing the favourites tag, the Pies were spooked when they faced Clarko’s men in Round 9 before shaking the tension out and marching to victory. The Hawks curse was broken.

VERDICT: WIN

ROUND 16

v Essendon, MCG — 2.10pm

WE SAY: Just like Anzac Day, but one feels this game will have more riding on it. Flip of the coin.

VERDICT: LOSS

ROUND 17

v Gold Coast, Metricon Stadium — 4:35pm

WE SAY: We saw the Suns’ win over West Coast at the weekend. Gold Coast would need to play significantly better to beat Collingwood.

VERDICT: WIN

ROUND 18

v West Coast, Etihad Stadium — 3:20pm

WE SAY: The Pies would prefer this one at the ‘G — especially given West Coast’s form there — but the Eagles travel as well as Guinness.

VERDICT: WIN

ROUND 19

v Adelaide, MCG — 3.20pm

WE SAY: If the Pies can pinch one of their home clashes against either Adelaide team they’ll be a lot closer to a September berth.

VERDICT: LOSS

ROUND 20

v North Melbourne , MCG — 7:25pm

WE SAY: Saturday night, MCG against a likely-tiring North team that’s been playing the kids. It’s set up for the Pies.

VERDICT: WIN

ROUND 21

v Port Adelaide , Adelaide Oval — 4:40pm

WE SAY: Playing Port at home is tough. The Pies travel well but playing Kenny from Camperdown’s men on their own deck takes the task to another level.

VERDICT: LOSS

ROUND 22

v Geelong, MCG — 2:10pm

WE SAY: Giving the Pies this one. Knocked Chris Scott’s men for a sixer last year and again earlier this season at the same venue. Some teams just match up well against others.

VERDICT: WIN

ROUND 23

v Melbourne, MCG — TBC

WE SAY: The final round will almost certainly decide who makes the eight — it’s just a matter of whether either of these two are in contention. Melbourne will likely have a fit Max Gawn and Jesse Hogan back, while the Pies would also hope to be at full strength. We’ll flip the coin ...

VERDICT: WIN

PREDICTED FINISH: 12 WINS, 10 LOSSES

Originally published as Collingwood behind the ledger in finals race but fixture provides hope