It’s mathematically possible for Carlton to make the finals: Here’s how

Don’t look now, Carlton fans, but the Blues can still make the finals. They have to keep winning — and they need a little help from their friends — but here’s how it could happen.

Patrick Cripps of the Blues celebrates a goal against Adelaide.

David Teague is in the box seat to be Carlton’s next full-time coach after winning five of his seven games in charge.

How good would his resume look if he can take the Blues all the way to September? That might sound crazy, but it’s not impossible. In fact, the closer you look at the results required for Carlton to make the finals, the more possible it starts to look.

After all, does anyone have confidence in the eighth-placed Crows right now?

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The first domino falls. 😜😜#carltonforfinals https://t.co/G5Tv2FbV2F

— Jon Ralph (@RalphyHeraldSun) August 2, 2019

The first domino fell last night when the Roos knocked off the Hawks.

The non-negotiable is the Blues have to win all of their remaining games. That will be a challenge given they play West Coast, Richmond, St Kilda and Geelong. But in their current form, who knows? And at least the Eagles have to travel to Melbourne next weekend.

Can Patrick Cripps lead the Blues on a finals charge?

That would give Carlton 10 wins, which is a historically low number to play off in September — since the top eight was introduced in 1994 on three occasions a team has made the finals with 40 points (Brisbane in 1995 and 1997 and Essendon in 2009) — but not an unachievable one, if other results fall the Blues’ way.

Here’s how this admittedly extremely unlikely, but tantalising, scenario could play out:

ROUND 20

— Carlton needs to beat West Coast at Marvel Stadium

— North Melbourne needs to win against Hawthorn

— Brisbane Lions must defeat Western Bulldogs at the Gabba by 30 points or more

— St Kilda needs to beat Adelaide at Adelaide Oval

ROUND 21

— Carlton needs to upset Richmond

— GWS has to defeat Hawthorn

— St Kilda has to win against Fremantle

— Essendon needs to beat the Western Bulldogs by 40 points or more

— Adelaide needs to lose to West Coast in Perth

How the ladder could look after Round 23

ROUND 22

— Carlton must win against St Kilda

— Collingwood has to beat Adelaide at Adelaide Oval

— North Melbourne needs to win against Port Adelaide

— GWS needs to beat the Bulldogs

ROUND 23

— Melbourne must beat North Melbourne

— The Western Bulldogs must defeat Adelaide

— Sydney has to win at home against St Kilda

— Carlton upsets Geelong at GMHBA Stadium

That last one is tough, but remember that by this stage the Cats will likely have top spot sewn up so will have nothing to play for and could have a number stars out with “general soreness”.

If that all happens, the Blues will finish eighth with 40 points and a percentage of about 92, edging out the Bulldogs and St Kilda on percentage (Adelaide’s high percentage means the Blues can’t afford for the Crows to win another game).

Now, we don’t want to get too far ahead of ourselves here ...but if these results all come to pass Carlton will play finals for the first time since 2013 — and will face Collingwood in an elimination final.

Go Blues.

Originally published as It’s mathematically possible for Carlton to make the finals: Here’s how