Gary Buckenara analyses Carlton’s list after the 2020 season
Carlton’s rebuild has been long and painful but the Blues are now finally seeing results, with a premiership a serious possibility sooner than you think. List expert Gary Buckenara analyses Carlton’s list.
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Carlton could be only two years away from being a serious premiership contender as this playing group slowly matures into a finals team.
Playing finals next year will be the first step, a goal that is genuinely achievable for the first time in years.
The Blues have been patient and slowly built a balanced list through the draft, stockpiling elite young talent including Sam Walsh, Charlie Curnow, Jacob Weitering and Harry McKay, and are now primed to hit the trade and free agency market for stars who fill needs to cap off the list build.
Adding Adam Saad is an exciting prospect but dealing with Essendon won’t be, as Sydney (and many other clubs over the years) found out last year with Joe Daniher. A fair trade for Saad would be a top-20 draft pick or pick No.7 in exchange for both Saad and a pick in the teens, which the Blues could then use in other trades.
Zac Williams will be a nice addition across halfback and in the midfield but if reports of a contract worth $800,000-$900,000 are true, Carlton has overpaid. He’s not in the class of players like Josh Kelly, Marcus Bontempelli, Isaac Heeney or Scott Pendlebury, the elite midfielders who command that sort of money. I hope that contract doesn’t come back to bite them when they need to re-sign Patrick Cripps, Walsh, McKay, Charlie Curnow and Weitering, just a few stars and emerging stars who will be worth big money.
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The return of Curnow from injury next year will be massive. If he can get his body right he’ll prove the x-factor they need to take the next step. A forward line featuring Curnow, McKay, Tom De Koning/Mitch McGovern and Jack Martin will be a frightening proposition for rivals. When McKay can start to consistently impact games, he’ll make a massive difference. He’s a really exciting prospect.
Eddie Betts is set to play on next year but that’s a mistake. It’s always tough saying farewell to champions of the club but he didn’t offer enough on the field this year to warrant a new contract.
Carlton has seven players aged 21 or under with the potential to develop into stars, including Lochie O’Brien, Sam Philp and Liam Stocker, who have had limited senior opportunities and it’s time for Betts to be moved on so these players can get their chance. While they’re not small forwards, moving Betts opens up a spot in the team and you never know what you might find when you give young players opportunities. These are the tough decisions that can fast-track premiership aspirations. Betts won’t be in the Blues’ next premiership team, so make the decision now. Port Adelaide showed this year how making these hard decisions can propel you forward very quickly.
LIST NEEDS
Finding more assistance for Cripps remains the biggest issue for the Blues. They’re in desperate need of one or two big-bodied midfield bulls who can do the grunt work.
Carlton also needs to just continue developing its players and not fall into the trap of believing the development will occur naturally. You need to keep working hard on improving and despite the emergence of Weitering, McKay, De Koning and Michael Gibbons in particular this year, the job isn’t done. Sam Petrevski-Seton, Paddy Dow, Lochie O’Brien, Liam Stocker, Caleb Marchbank, Zac Fisher and Will Setterfield are among those who need to knuckle down.
TRADE TARGETS
Reports have emerged Jordan De Goey is interested in playing for Carlton but it’s buyer beware on a player who is very inconsistent, has injury issues and has had several off-field problems. I would not pursue him if I was Carlton because of this. He will command big money and these issues make De Goey a big risk - you can’t have money tied up in players with question marks over not only their durability but also their commitment. Let him go to a team like North Melbourne who would be silly enough to pay him up to $1 million per season for five years and trade an early pick. Give me Saad any day.
Last year it was rumoured Ollie Wines was keen to get to Carlton and I would be pursing that as the No.1 priority this off-season despite Port Adelaide being a chance to win the flag. That doesn’t mean some of the reasons why Wines, who is a Victorian, wanted to return to his home state.
I would also be ringing Luke Parker’s manager. He’ll be 28 in October and is unlikely to be in Sydney’s next premiership team so be aggressive and ask the question – does he want to chase another flag with an up and coming team? He’d be a brilliant addition to play alongside Cripps, Walsh, Murphy and now Williams. What a midfield that would be. I’d dangle pick No.7 at the Swans, which would give them picks 3 and 7 at the draft. Even throw in Levi Casboult as a sweetener given Sydney need a forward-ruck.
I would also ask the question of out-of-contract Saint Jack Lonie to replace Betts. He’s a crafty small forward who’s young enough to grow with this team.
UNTOUCHABLES
Cripps, Dow, Walsh, McKay, Weitering, De Koning, C. Curnow, Fisher, Stocker, O’Brien, Marchbank, Setterfield, Petrevski-Seton, Lachie Plowman, Sam Philp, Jack Martin, Liam Jones, Ed Curnow, Sam Docherty and Brodie Kemp.
TRADE BAIT
Casboult has a contract for 2021 but he’s surplus to needs given the emergence of De Koning this year. The Blues are flush for key forward options, so he’s a player who could be of interest to a club in desperate need of a forward-ruck. Essendon, GWS, North Melbourne, Sydney and Gold Coast are all clubs who need this type of player and given the need of this type of player. They could get a second-round pick for him, given forward-rucks are so hard to find, which would be a very good deal.
Paddy Dow’s name has been thrown up as a player who could be used as trade bait but I still believe he’s going to be a good player. While he’s struggling to get a game and there are question marks on his disposal, it would be smart to keep investing in him. He’s a former No.3 pick and talent doesn’t evaporate overnight.
RATING THE LIST
A-grade: Cripps
B: E. Curnow, Docherty, Fisher, Jones, Marchbank, Martin, Murphy, Newnes, Petrevski-Seton, Plowman, Weitering
C: Betts, Casboult, Cuningham, C. Curnow (at present due to his injuries), Gibbons, Kennedy, Macreadie, McGovern, McKay, Moore, Newman, Pittonet, Polson, Setterfield, J. Silvagni, Williamson
Developing (with A or B-grade potential): De Koning, Dow, Kemp, O’Brien, Philp, Stocker, Walsh
Developing: Cottrell, Honey, Owies, Phillips, Ramsay
What the ratings mean:
A-grade: Elite player on any AFL list
B: Top 10-18 player on most lists
C: An 18-30 player on a list
*Developing Aged 21 or under who should become an A or B grader
Developing: Aged 21 or under
CRYSTAL BALL
Carlton’s list is talented enough to play finals in 2021 and by adding Williams and Saad it gives them a lot to be excited about. I don’t think the Blues are ready to challenge for the premiership next year but they could be a serious contender for the flag in 2022. Carlton fans should get excited as this group matures and grows, but they will need to recruit at least one or two big-bodied midfielders to help Cripps to be a top team.
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Originally published as Gary Buckenara analyses Carlton’s list after the 2020 season