Robbo: How much is Josh Schache worth?
BRISBANE No. 2 pick Josh Schache is hot property, with clubs scrambling to secure the services of the key forward. But how much should they pay for the unproven young gun?
Lions
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BRISBANE is fighting an unknown enemy.
The Lions’ No. 2 draft pick Josh Schache will play this weekend, but has not yet decided if he will be at Brisbane beyond this year.
Opposition clubs want him.
But the Lions don’t know which clubs have offered how much because Schache’s manager David Trotter is keeping that information between himself and Schache.
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It means the Lions don’t know how well their offer stacks up against those from rival clubs.
They don’t know what Richmond has put on the table. Or what Collingwood has. Or Carlton has. Or any other Victorian-based club looking for a key forward.
Their enemies are many and the arsenals are deep.
It’s understood a Tom Boyd-type deal — $6 million over six years — has not been tabled. Yet.
But if North Melbourne has upped at the ante for Giant Josh Kelly — $9 million over nine years — it’s ludicrous to think that a club wouldn’t stump up huge cash for Schache.
If they did it for Boyd, a club will certainly pull the trigger on Schache.
The Lions are worried on a couple of fronts.
Schache, originally from Seymour, is coming off consecutive poor games and, truth be known, he was lucky to keep his spot for today’s game against Sydney at the SCG.
Unlike St Kilda’s Paddy McCartin, who is also struggling at senior football level but is fully committed to the Saints, Schache is far from committed.
The Lions believe he will stay, but also believe the media-hype, pressure and offers from rival clubs have all played a role in Schache playing some average footy.
It looks like he’s playing with the weight of the world on his shoulders, or at least the weight of $5 million.
Others say Schache, a gun junior, is struggling this year to get into the rhythm of AFL football in regards to running patterns and defensive capabilities, and has lost confidence.
As an aside, and quite quickly, the discussion has left Schache and landed on his teammate Eric Hipwood.
It has been noted that Schache hasn’t delivered the “wow’’ factor yet, while Hipwood wows us weekly.
That also presents a complex situation for the Lions.
If Schache is worth, say, $500,000 a season to the Lions, then what is Hipwood worth? He’s signed until the end of 2019 and is better than Schache on every gauge.
It means his next contract will also be closer to a $1 million than not.
So, how much do the Lions offer a kid such as Schache who, up until today, had played 21 games and kicked 20 goals?
How do they measure output against potential?
How does his management do the same?
Well, they don’t have to. Other clubs will dictate the market price. If the Tigers think he is worth $4 million over five years, then that’s what he is worth.
Under no circumstances can the Lions offer $800,000 a season to their own player because this is a club digging itself out of a hole and a contract such as that would hurt their TPP and, most likely, put noses out of joint with other players.
Brisbane’s best bet is for Schache to sign a two-year deal at about $500,000 a season, allowing him to judge how the team and club are travelling and then reassess at the end of 2019.
Although the Lions say they are confident, they’re not as confident as they were at Christmas.
That Schache has not agreed to their latest contract offer and is looking at much bigger deals from rival clubs is certainly not a positive.
And if Schache desperately wanted to stay, he or his management would be talking to the club in much greater depth than they are at the moment.
The Lions are also a touch bewildered because Schache is the son of former Brisbane Bears player Laurence, and was hellbent on getting to his late dad’s club. He wear his old man’s No. 23, but it seems those emotional ties so important 18 months ago have been put on the back burner.
Of course, the Lions want him to stay. They have put two years of footy into him, they took him at No. 2 in 2015 (behind Jacob Weitering) and reckon he’s going to be a star. But if he wants to leave, the Lions will take stock.
They will want two first-round draft picks in return and if they get them, they already have Port Adelaide’s first-round pick plus their own pick, so the Lions could go to the draft with four picks under, say, No. 15. Or if they want to spread them, three first-rounders this year and two first-rounders next year.
On top of last year’s draft which landed them Hugh McCluggage, Jarrod Berry and Alex Witherden, the Lions will be stockpiling talent.
It’s tantalising, but this club also has to start winning games and keep its talent. The Lions don’t want to be known as the AFL’s Philadelphia 76ers, an NBA team which has accrued picks for finishing last, traded talent for more picks, and still lose the bulk of their games.
Intriguingly, the Lions this year will select in the draft their academy forward Connor Ballenden
He had a huge under-16 national carnival, played bottom-age under-18s last year and was OK save for five goals against Tasmania and in three academy games this year has kicked only two goals.
He will again play in the national under-18 championships. If he performs outstandingly, the loss of Schache, if it happens, won’t be so devastating.
The Lions take the picks, take the kid and soldier forward.
Again, they want to keep Schache.
Right now, he’s in a rut and maybe a couple of games in the NEAFL, where he can go back, ease the pressure, take marks and kick goals and have some fun.
It still won’t hide him from the biggest decision of his life thus far.
Stay at the Lions and be paid less or take the overs and run back to Victoria, his home state.
A Boyd or Kelly-type offer might make it virtually impossible to stay.
Originally published as Robbo: How much is Josh Schache worth?
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