AFL Lions v Giants: Brisbane’s top four blueprint is now wins on the road

Brisbane now needs a historic run away from home to finish in the top four and the first crucial step is knocking off a depleted GWS on Thursday night.

The Brisbane Lions have been gifted a lifeline from the football gods in the form of a depleted GWS Giants on the road in Canberra – one they must take advantage of or risk the season slipping away.

With three consecutive losses at home to open the campaign, the Lions have already lost more games at the Gabba than any of the past five seasons.

Brisbane’s predictable top four finishes under Fagan have been built on home ground dominance but that has disappeared in 2024 in the wake of defeats to Carlton, Collingwood and Geelong.

Toby Greene will serve a one-match suspension for this hit on Carlton’s Jordan Boyd. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

It makes manufacturing wins on the road even more pivotal if last season’s grand finalists hope to again feature in the upper reaches of the top eight.

Over that same five-year span the Lions have never won more than six games away from home. In fact aside from the Covid-impacted 2020 campaign, which was played almost exclusively in Queensland, Brisbane has won exactly six games on the road each year since 2019.

The MCG win over Melbourne a fortnight ago was a crucial victory in the context of the season and Thursday night’s Giants clash could be even more important.

Coleman Medal leader Jesse Hogan may have escaped his one-match ban at the tribunal on Tuesday night, however fellow superstar forward Toby Greene will miss the Anzac Day blockbuster after his suspension was upheld.

Greene’s absence adds to a string of significant outs for the Giants, alongside Sam Taylor (concussion) and Stephen Coniglio (knee).

Small forward Brent Daniels will also be a gameday test after managing knee soreness through the week.

Brisbane’s Home and Away Record
Home	Away	Ladder Finish
2024	0-3*	2-1*	TBC
2023	11-0	6-6	2nd
2022	9-2	6-5	6th
2021	9-2	6-5	4th
2019	10-1	6-5	2nd
Note: Covid-impacted 2020 season not included

Carlton provided the blueprint to knocking off the Giants last weekend when tall tandem Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay blew the game open with a stunning third quarter

The Giants’ back six was significantly weakened by the absence of Taylor, arguably the best key defender in the game, and the Blues cashed in when it counted.

Now Brisbane, with Joe Daniher and Eric Hipwood at the helm, must do the same or risk watching the season slip away.

Lose on Thursday and the Lions will fall to 2-5 – 0-3 at home and 2-2 on the road.

Even if they win their remaining eight home games – far from a certainty given their current run of Gabba form and tricky fixture – it would still leave them on 14 wins for the season, assuming they hit their annual six wins on the road.

That would leave the Lions two short of the 16-win top four cut-off which has been the benchmark over the past two seasons.

GWS may be depleted but Brisbane is not without its own injury headaches.

Brisbane ruckman Oscar McInerney will miss the Giants clash due to concussion protocols after he was subbed out at halftime against Geelong last weekend. (Photo by Albert Perez/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

Zac Bailey’s high ankle sprain will keep him off the field for at least the next month, severely impacting the Lions’ midfield rotation.

But more importantly the loss of incumbent ruck Oscar McInerney to concussion protocols significantly hampers their stoppage game – an area they will want to take advantage of against the Giants.

The Lions entered last weekend’s clash with Geelong as the top-ranked clearance differential team in the AFL, but have dropped to third after the Cats narrowly beat them in that category.

McInerney was sorely missed in the second half as the Cats ran over the top of the Lions in the wet and his absence will be felt once more against the Giants, who rank 16th for clearance differential and were blitzed by the Blues in that area last round.

If Fagan’s side still dares to dream of the double chance, it needs to produce a historically strong season on the road to make it happen.

Knocking off the Giants in Canberra is the crucial first step.