Adelaide draft analysis: How Crows can kickstart rebuild
Adelaide’s future trajectory could be decided at this year’s draft, which shapes as the most important in the club’s history. Here’s what the Crows have planned with every pick.
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The three-horse race to become the Crows’ first number-one draft pick appears to be down to two – key forwards Riley Thilthorpe and Logan McDonald – on the back of the Brad Crouch compensation.
Midfielder Elijah Hollands has been the other contender but it is less likely Adelaide will take the Victorian now that it does not have the opening two selections next month, given he is coming off an ACL injury from February.
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Hollands – the son of former Richmond player and West Adelaide star Ben Hollands – was considered a stronger candidate if the Crows secured pick two as compensation for restricted free agent Crouch’s move to St Kilda, but instead they were handed No. 23.
While Adelaide is understood to have done plenty of homework on Hollands, who is a Crows supporter, he is riskier now the club does not have consecutive picks at the top of the order.
Along with selections one and 23, Adelaide also has nine, 22, 40, 56, 66 and 80, although academy bids will push those back.
The Crows have never had a top-five pick, let alone number one, and an athletic key forward with the potential to spearhead the club’s attack for a decade will be incredibly difficult to ignore.
Thilthorpe and McDonald both boast strong work ethics and running capacities, and the case can be made for either player, but they have had much different seasons.
West Adelaide prospect Thilthorpe battled groin issues, restricting him to nine games and sidelining him since Round 9, including for the SA combine and last month’s all-stars clash.
His draft stocks were not helped by lining up for a Bloods team that won just two of its 14 SANFL matches and scored a measly 814 points for the season.
At 201cm and 102kg, Thilthorpe, who also played league football last year, would also offer ruck support for Reilly O’Brien.
With no underage football in Victoria this year, West Australian McDonald had arguably the best junior campaign in the country.
He played an important role in Perth reaching the WAFL finals for the first time since 1997, slotting 21 goals from nine matches to rank second in the competition after the minor round.
The 196cm, 86kg youngster also showcased his athletic prowess at the WA combine, registering a time of 3.029 secs over 20m and 6:33 over 2km.
Thilthorpe and McDonald are understood to remain unsure if they will be taken at number one as Adelaide keeps its cards close.
It would surprise if the Crows, whose highest draft pick to date was Fischer McAsey at No. 6 last year, chose anyone other than those two.
They may bid for Western Bulldogs Next Generation Academy young gun Jamarra Ugle-Hagan.
He is considered the standout player in the draft pool and the Crows have a history of keeping rivals accountable with NGA prospects.
But other clubs believe Adelaide is the frontrunner to secure pick 14 from the Western Bulldogs, possibly for selections 22 and 23, and the Dogs will want the Crows overlook Ugle-Hagan at one to reduce their points hit in matching a bid.
Hawthorn football boss Graham Wright told the Hawks Trade Talk podcast this week: “It looks to me like Adelaide will have inside running with that to be able to put together a better package of picks and … the way the system works with the bidding, there can be some stuff that would help them if they didn’t bid”.
West Australian key defender Denver Grainger-Barras is also tipped to go early but is not expected to be in the frame at number one.
WHAT ABOUT ITS ACADEMY PROSPECTS?
Adelaide is understood to have not yet told its academy trio James Borlase, Tariek Newchurch and Luke Edwards if it will match other clubs’ bids on them on draft night.
The chances of all three landing at West Lakes next month were already slim but lengthened on Tuesday when the Crows traded out two mid-range picks, 33 and 50, to Melbourne for the Demons’ 2021 second and fourth-round selections.
Clubs planning to match bids on academy players look to move later selections in, not out.
There are unlikely to be bids for NGA duo Borlase and Newchurch, or father-son prospect Edwards – whose dad is club great Tyson Edwards – before pick 23, leaving the Crows with 40, 56, 66 and 80 to match the points.
It means if bids come in the 20s or 30s for Borlase and Newchurch, for example, it may be forced to choose between them.
Trading a future selection for another club’s 2020 choice is an option for Adelaide and teams can complete pick swaps in the lead-up to the draft, as well as on the night itself.
The Crows could also go into deficit in 2021 and they might add a later selection this year – possibly 54 – if they complete that pick deal with the Bulldogs.
There is still a lot to unfold, including finalising list sizes and out-of-contract players in limbo potentially earning new deals, but far fewer draftees than usual are tipped to be taken in total.
And right now Adelaide is not positioned like a team that is going to match two bids, let alone three.
Glenelg midfielder/halfback Edwards is unlikely to end up at Adelaide.
Sturt defender Borlase – the Egypt-born son of Port Adelaide SANFL premiership captain Darryl Borlase – is understood to have had interest from Victorian clubs and there is belief there may be a bid as high as in the 20s for him.
He impressed late in the season, including being best afield in the SA All-Schools Cup grand final for Prince Alfred College and testing well at the SA combine.
Borlase is ineligible to join Port as a father-son selection due to Darryl falling short of the required minimum of 200 games before the Power’s AFL entry in 1997.
With Adelaide having McAsey, Jordon Butts and Josh Worrell in the wings, some recruiters do not think the club will want intercept marker Borlase unless it can get him cheaply.
One rival club’s recruiting manager thinks the Crows will be keenest to land Newchurch.
The 185cm, 72kg Indigenous talent fills a list hole at Adelaide because he has speed, goal scoring ability and X-factor.
Several interstate clubs have raised their interest in him and the talk is of a bid coming anywhere from 25-50 on draft night.
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Originally published as Adelaide draft analysis: How Crows can kickstart rebuild