Sydney’s Round 1 loss to GWS Giants was no aberration, it’s been brewing for a lot longer

SYDNEY’S loss to Greater Western Sydney in Round 1 was mostly regarded as an aberration. It wasn’t.

WE SEE a Sydney Swans outfit on Saturday night that’s on the nose.

The loss to Greater Western Sydney in Round 1 was mostly regarded as an aberration. It wasn’t.

The Swans have been on the nose for the past 10 matches, going back to Round 18 last year.

Combined with an un-Sydney-like environment off the field, fuelled by rumour and accusation, tonight’s clash against Collingwood suddenly is a crunch game for the one-time premiership favourite.

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The mess off the field will linger. Rumours always do.

And it seems to all centre on boom recruit Lance Franklin.

There was talk of a fight between Ryan O’Keefe and Franklin, which the club denied.

There was the suggestion Franklin was driving his expensive sports car when it crashed, and not teammate Dan Hannebery, which the club denied.

Heath Grundy looks on as the Sydney Swans contemplate their shock Round 1 loss to GWS. Photo by Ryan Pierse

There was the opinion that Franklin could undermine 20 years of “Bloods culture’’, which the club scoffed at.

And, as an aside, that Hannebery was off the rails, which the club sort of denied.

It is an unusual predicament for the Swans. Usually the pillars of all things professional, the Swans are under siege from a rampant media, who are chasing their tail as story after story about Franklin surfaces.

The Bloods culture has served them well, but dealing with Franklin Inc has proven to be challenging.

For all that, Sydney’s problems on the field are far more concerning than those off it.

Which begs the question: Is the dynasty coming to an end?

Between 2012 and Round 17 last year, the Swans won 31 matches, drew one and lost nine.

From that point, they have won four and lost six.

All sorts of tangibles could be addressed, but the most alarming is that Sydney, renowned for an ability to deny the opposition the ball, have lost that edge.

In other words, the Swans have relinquished the title of being the toughest opponent to play against.

Daniel Hannebery drops a mark during the Round 1 loss to GWS. Photo by Ryan Pierse

Through 2012 to Round 17 last year, the Swans averaged 17 more possessions than their opposition. In their past 10 matches they are averaging 29 behind, a turnaround of about 50 disposals.

Contested ball has dropped by six, and uncontested ball, which indicates how much space a team is allowed, has swung 38 possessions, from plus 10.3 through their dominant period to minus 27.6 in their past 10 matches.

The numbers would be more stark if you take away the semi-final win against Carlton last year. In that game the Swans were plus 97 in disposals and plus 103 in uncontested possessions.

For so long, it was difficult to possess the footy against the Swans.

But since Round 18 last year, they have conceded 387 disposals a game, the third highest amount in the competition.

They are staggering numbers.

There are myriad reasons, including the absence of dual Brownlow medallist Adam Goodes and the loss of No. 1 ruckman Shane Mumford, but perhaps the most obvious, and most important, is key players aren’t finding the ball as much.

O’Keefe was initially left out of the Swans’ team against GWS because of concerns about his lack of speed. They are warranted. In the sample period, O’Keefe went from averaging 24.7 possessions a game to 19.3

There are others. Hannebery has been snipped from 25.2 to 20, Lewis Jetta from 15.3 to 10, wonder kid Tom Mitchell from 21.8 to 17.2, Rhyce Shaw 18 to 15, Nick Malceski 20.6 to 18.5.

Four midfielders are in that group, Shaw plays defence/mid and Malceski drives from a back flank.

Coach John Longmire would know the numbers and he has to answer why.

Clearly, the pressure on the opposition has dropped.

Injuries may have caught up with them last year, causing midfield rotations to drop and leaving a block of mids tired. Jetta returned but wasn’t match fit and Goodes didn’t play after Round 13 because of injury.

This year, through the NAB and Round 1, the Swans have dropped intensity.

Is it the Franklin factor, the cash and all that, or are key Swans not buying in?

The Bloods are bleeding and this Collingwood game is a must-win.