Ultimate Champion Data 2020 KFC SuperCoach formguide
Which rookies can we trust in KFC SuperCoach? Who are the biggest bargains – and the players to avoid. Champion Data crunches the numbers on the top picks from every club.
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It’s almost here.
A new season of KFC SuperCoach is about to begin with tens of thousands of fans embarking on the fantasy footy rollercoaster — and SuperCoach is still on after the AFL announced a reduced season to deal with the coronavirus crisis.
To help us navigate the season and pick the strongest possible starting teams, Champion Data has crunched the numbers on the best performers of the pre-season, which rookies we can trust and the bargain selections of the year — and the players to avoid.
Here are their top picks from every club.
UPDATE: WHAT A 17-GAME SEASON MEANS FOR SUPERCOACH
TACTICS: HOW TO NAIL A 17-GAME SUPERCOACH STRATEGY
ADELAIDE
Tom Doedee $273,700 DEF – Cross
Pre-Christmas, Doedee was close to a SuperCoach lock, but a lot has changed since then. Still owned by 8 per cent of the competition at the time of writing, he’s likely to be sidelined for at least another two weeks, and is all but certain to miss the season opener. He was a popular pick in his debut season – averaging 18 disposals, one contested mark and 82 points from 20 games.
Rory Laird $525,800 DEF – Tick
If you’re not willing to spend the big bucks on Jake Lloyd, then in terms of value you can’t go wrong with Laird. He underperformed in 2019, averaging his fewest points since 2015, but at his best he’s an excellent scorer – averaging a career-high 108 points in 2018. Laird is a prolific ball-winner, as he demonstrated in the final pre-season match, collecting 32 disposals.
Brodie Smith $481,300 DEF – Tick
A popular mid-price option in 2019, Smith looms as a POD this year at a much higher price. He finished last season playing further up the ground, and he has continued in that role under Matthew Nicks – spending time in the midfield during the Marsh Community Series. He racked up 34 disposals and gained 633 metres against the Suns – both game-highs.
BRISBANE LIONS
Hugh McCluggage $510,700 MID – Tick
Progression has been the theme for McCluggage across his career to date, improving his output by at least 17 points in every season. Should he enjoy a similar rise in 2020, it would push his average up to 110. A more prominent role at centre bounces could be on the horizon, ranking equal-third at the Lions for centre bounce attendances during the pre-season.
Grant Birchall $292,700 DEF – Question mark
Can the Lions turn Birchall’s poor durability around? Hopefully, the answer is yes as he’s a SuperCoach player worth looking at. Likely to take over the role of the retired Luke Hodge, Birchall hasn’t set the world on fire though during the pre-season, scoring 46 and 67 points in his two Marsh Series games from 69 per cent game time. But with greater minutes during the home-and-away rounds, he could get the job done. A risky pick nonetheless.
Deven Robertson $117,300 MID – Question mark
Chris Fagan has been praising Robertson across the pre-season and he looked right at home against the Blues, attending 13 centre bounces. He also won 11 disposals and applied five tackles, of which four were in general play, which highlights his work ethic. It remains to be seen if he can earn a debut in Round 1, but even if he doesn’t, it shouldn’t be too long before we see him at AFL level.
CARLTON
Sam Docherty $436,100 DEF – Tick
At a heavily discounted starting price, Docherty is the most selected defender in the competition at the time of writing, and rightly so. He was quiet in his first pre-season match, but he reminded everyone of his scoring potential against the Lions, collecting 105 points. He ranked second in the competition for uncontested marks in the defensive half across the pre-season, which highlights his elite ability at finding the ball in space.
Jack Martin $420,800 FWD/MID – Question mark
Martin has shown glimpses of his talent at the Suns, but he is yet to fully establish himself as a SuperCoach asset. He’s a tantalising prospect, but could the $420k be spent more wisely? He has asked questions of SuperCoaches however, leading the Blues for points per 100 minutes game time during the pre-season.
Sam Walsh $471,900 MID – Tick
Walsh was the only Carlton player to reach three figures in both pre-season games. Ordinarily, we wouldn’t consider a second-year player at such a high price, but Walsh is no ordinary player. Like Clayton Oliver in his second season, Walsh is every chance to take his game to another level in 2020. He finished the pre-season campaign with 24 disposals and a game-high 522 metres gained against the Lions.
COLLINGWOOD
Jeremy Howe $431,900 DEF – Tick
Coming off his worst SuperCoach season since 2015, Howe is nicely priced ahead of 2020. He dominated in his only pre-season match against the Saints, finishing with 25 disposals (85 per cent disposal efficiency), 524 metres gained, eight intercept possessions and 134 points. Howe is also likely to be released from strict defensive roles, which adds to his appeal.
John Noble $215,400 DEF – Tick
With a dearth of basement price rookie options in defence, we may be forced to pay a bit extra for job security. Noble has been a standout for the Magpies across halfback during the pre-season, ranking No.1 in the competition for defensive half handball receives with 23 from two games. He posted respectable scores of 79 and 73 and looks set the feature in the season opener.
Darcy Cameron $123,900 RUC/FWD – Question mark
With Brodie Grundy representing Victoria in the State of Origin clash, Cameron showcased his ruck craft against the Tigers, racking up a game-high 127 points – posting the second-highest hitout-to-advantage rate of any ruckman in the opening round of the Marsh Series. But Cameron missed out in the second game and may not play in Round 1.
ESSENDON
Devon Smith $335,800 FWD/MID – Tick
Smith is a bargain and close to a must-have SuperCoach pick in 2020. Back to full fitness, his pressure game is central to his fantasy success. He ranked equal-fourth in the league for tackle attempts with 22 during the pre-season, of which 16 were effective tackles – ranked equal-second. Smith also attended 18 centre bounces – ranked fifth at the Bombers.
Brandon Zerk-Thatcher $189,000 DEF – Tick
With Cale Hooker out injured, Zerk-Thatcher is set to play a key role in Essendon’s backline in the early rounds. His performances across the Marsh Series were excellent, ranking No.1 in the competition for intercept possessions with 21 from two games. He dominated as an interceptor in the VFL last season, averaging 7.5 per game – ranked fourth in the competition of anyone to have played at least 10 games.
Andrew McGrath $399,400 MID – Tick
A permanent midfield role could propel McGrath to a breakout season. The early signs are positive, attending the second-most centre bounces of any Bomber during the pre-season. Minus injured skipper, Dyson Heppell, McGrath led the Bombers for clearances with 11, and scored 94 and 105 from his two games. A tantalising mid-price option.
FREMANTLE
Hayden Young $180,300 DEF – Tick
Even though Young may not debut in Round 1, he shouldn’t necessary be ruled out in SuperCoach. There are plenty of examples of rookies not playing in the season opener, but debuting not long after. A classy left-footer, Young arrives at the Dockers as one of the best kicks in his draft pool, rating elite for kicking efficiency in the NAB League.
Andrew Brayshaw $382,800 MID/FWD – Question mark
We have been here before. A high draft pick on the brink of a breakout season, but does Brayshaw actually break out, or does he do what plenty of other top picks have done in the past and fail to reach lofty heights? Brayshaw scored 94 and 102 points in his two Marsh Series matches and was a regular at centre bounces, attending six more than any other Docker across the pre-season.
Luke Ryan $520,400 DEF – Tick
Ryan was a late out in the Dockers’ final pre-season clash with soreness, but that shouldn’t deter you from picking him. The Dockers are set to play a high-possession game under Justin Longmuir and Ryan was excellent in his only pre-season game, collecting 113 points from 85 per cent game time. With kick-in duties in his locker, he’s a smart SuperCoach pick.
GEELONG
Jack Steven $361,700 FWD/MID – Tick
A minor injury kept Steven out of Geelong’s opening pre-season match, but he did enough against the Bombers to put his hand up for selection – scoring 97 points from just 65 per cent game time. It looks to be a like-for-like swap in Geelong’s midfield with the departed Tim Kelly, with Steven attending 13 centre bounces – the third-most of any Cat.
Tom Stewart $533,200 DEF – Tick
Despite undergoing post-season surgery, Stewart has recovered well and looks set for another consistent season. He finished with 21 disposals in the final pre-season clash against the Bombers, also winning five intercept possessions. Kick-in duties add to his appeal, playing on from 103 kick ins in 2019 – ranked second in the league behind Jake Lloyd.
Patrick Dangerfield $625,500 MID – Tick
Losing forward status shouldn’t diminish Dangerfield’s SuperCoach appeal. In fact, it surprisingly makes him POD as he’s the 20th most selected midfielder at the time of writing. His SuperCoach credentials are well known – averaging at least 120 points in three of the past four seasons. He won’t have it all his own way in Round 1 however, with a tag from Matt de Boer a near certainty.
GOLD COAST
Matthew Rowell (Mid) $207,300 – Tick
Only Marlion Pickett boasts a higher ownership among midfielders than Rowell at the time of writing. Like Sam Walsh in 2019, Rowell is poised to boom in price – posting excellent numbers across the Marsh Series – ranking sixth in the competition for points per 100 minutes game time of any midfielder in the league to play both games.
Hugh Greenwood $463,100 FWD/MID – Tick
After being well down the midfield pecking order at the Crows, Greenwood is set to play a key role at the Suns. His game time of 81 per cent is already considerably higher than last season, when he played 73 per cent of games. He led the Suns for clearances during the pre-season and ranked second for tackles and equal-second for contested possessions.
Connor Budarick $106,900 MID/FWD – Tick
At the basement starting price, Budarick is a popular pick as a DPP. He’s every chance of making his AFL debut in the season opener, even though he only played in the second half in the final pre-season clash. Budarick scored 37 points in that period from eight disposals, of which seven were effective.
GWS GIANTS
Tom Green $166,800 MID – Tick
Green, a Patrick Cripps clone, has demonstrated why he was once touted as the No.1 pick at the 2019 draft by many experts. He led the Giants for contested possessions during the pre-season and also ranked third for clearances. He posted scores of 106 and 72 points and was a constant at centre bounces – ranking second at the club for his attendance.
Sam Jacobs $348,400 RUCK – Question mark
The Giants have partnered Shane Mumford with the former Crow, but it’s looking more than likely that Jacobs will play the solo ruck role as Mumford hasn’t featured in any pre-season game. Jacobs ranked eighth in the competition among rucks for points per 100 minutes game time across the pre-season, and while he isn’t considered a season keeper, he is a stepping stone to one of the big two rucks.
Stephen Coniglio $549,500 MID – Tick
The new Giants skipper could be set for a different role in 2020, as forecast by Leon Cameron recently. He could potentially spend close to 50 per cent of game time in the forward line, but that shouldn’t diminish his SuperCoach appeal. Coniglio has kicked 36 goals from 36 home-and-away matches across the past two seasons, averaging 108 and 100 points in that order.
HAWTHORN
Tom Mitchell $630,900 MID – Tick
Mitchell hasn’t missed a beat in his return from a broken leg. He averaged 118 points per 100 minutes game time during the pre-season while playing just 71 per cent of games. Despite his limited minutes, he still had the most first possessions and clearances of any midfielder at the club. Mitchell may be eased into the season, but he should still score plenty of points.
James Sicily $509,500 DEF – Tick
The arrival of Sam Frost and the continued use of Ben McEvoy in defence could pave the way for Sicily to play his natural game as a floating interceptor. He found plenty of the ball in his only pre-season game, winning 29 disposals and 18 uncontested possessions – both team-highs. He was also direct and gained a game-high 633 metres.
Jonathon Patton $337,000 FWD – Cross
Even though Patton is likely to be the focal point in attack in his first season at the Hawks, the negatives far outweigh the positives. As we know, key forwards aren’t the most reliable scorers in the game, despite starting at a tempting price. Patton’s durability is another drawback, posting a durability rating of just 55 per cent across his career.
MELBOURNE
Jack Viney $439,300 MID – Tick
Similar to Marc Murphy a few years ago, Viney starts the season way under the odds, and without the added burden of captaincy he could prove to be one of the bargains of the season. Viney dominated across the pre-season and ranked second behind Marcus Bontempelli for points per 100 minutes game time. Viney also ranked second behind Lachie Neale for contested possessions.
Christian Petracca $441,300 FWD – Tick
Could this finally be the year that Petracca fulfils his SuperCoach potential? He smashed his previous best contested possession tally of 21 and won a career-high 27 in the Demons’ opening Marsh Series match. He was a lot quieter in the second game, but the role is there for him to flourish. Petracca attended the sixth-most centre bounces of any non-ruckman in the AFL during the pre-season.
Clayton Oliver $593,900 MID – Tick
Oliver’s starting price is slightly below what he could potentially produce in SuperCoach, and that all points to value! He scored 136 and 89 in his two pre-season games and has a tremendous ceiling – racking up 140-plus points in eight games across the past two seasons. Oliver averaged an equal career-high 30 disposals in 2019.
NORTH MELBOURNE
Aiden Bonar $202,800 MID/FWD – Question mark
A clear favourite among early pre-season teams, Bonar’s place in the Kangaroos’ side isn’t assured ahead of the season opener, playing just 27 per cent game time against the Swans in the final pre-season match which included sitting out the first half of the game. Competition for spots in the Roos side is hot and the ex-Giant may be forced to wait for his Kangaroos debut.
Ben Cunnington $554,100 MID – Tick
Cunnington ranked seventh in the competition for total points scored in the opening 15 rounds last season before his form dropped off. He struggled with the extra attention, which is why he starts this season at a price of $554k. He’s perfectly suited to the SuperCoach game, ranking fourth in the AFL for stoppage contested possessions in 2019.
Curtis Taylor $123,900 FWD – Tick
Taylor’s performance in the final pre-season game against the Swans all but assures he plays in Round 1. He played a roaming half-forward role, but still won a game-high eight disposals inside 50. He had the equal-most shots at goal of any player on the ground and was also involved in eight scoring chains. Taylor looms as a great on-field option for the season opener.
PORT ADELAIDE
Dan Houston $484,800 DEF/MID – Tick
One of the most hyped players of the pre-season, Ken Hinkley’s public declaration that Houston will play as a midfielder has put him firmly on the radar of SuperCoaches. He attended the equal-most centre bounces of any Power player during the pre-season and ranked sixth at the club for points per 100 minutes game time. With Ollie Wines injured long-term, Houston could be a bargain at his price.
Scott Lycett $550,600 RUCK – Tick
Lycett’s stocks have been boosted by the departure of Paddy Ryder, but an injury in the final pre-season match has hampered his preparation. The Power did state he was only removed as a precaution and he should be right for Round 1. Lycett posted some massive numbers in 2019, which included racking up three scores in excess of 160.
Tom Rockliff $495,400 MID – Cross
I’m not the only SuperCoach to be let down by Rockliff in the past, and it has often ended in tears. Even with the absence of Ollie Wines, Rockliff remains a risky SuperCoach proposition – playing all 22 home-and-away games just once, which was way back in the 2012 season. His scores have also been inconsistent across the past three seasons, largely due to injuries.
RICHMOND
Marlion Pickett $123,900 MID – Tick
After playing a starring role in Richmond’s premiership team, it should be no surprise to anyone that Pickett is currently the most selected player in the competition. Starting at a basement low rookie price, Pickett attended the second-most centre bounces of any Tiger during the pre-season, posting 61 points in each of his two games.
Tom Lynch $388,800 FWD – Question mark
Lynch finished last season like a steam train, averaging 99 points from his final 10 matches which included the finals series. He also posted three scores of 120-plus points over that period, kicking multiple goals in all but one game. On the surface, his starting price makes him a tempting option, but key forwards are often considered risky picks in SuperCoach.
Bachar Houli $571,600 DEF – Cross
As good as Houli was last season, he shouldn’t be a target for your initial starting team. His spike last season really came from nowhere after returning solid scores of 89, 93 and 74 points respectively from 2016. Houli’s pre-season has been limited, scoring 35 points from 84 per cent game time in his only match.
ST KILDA
Rowan Marshall $598,700 RUCK – Question mark
The arrival of Paddy Ryder places somewhat of a question mark on Marshall’s SuperCoach worth. He attended 47 ruck contests per game during the pre-season, which was well below his 69 per game in 2019. Marshall also ranked ninth at the Saints for points per 100 minutes game time across the pre-season.
Max King $123,900 FWD – Tick
When we look at cash cows, first and foremost, it’s job security we’re after. Even though King’s job security is more than assured, he’s likely to post plenty of scores in the 50s given he’s a young key forward in his first season. King was the No.1 target inside 50 for the Saints during the pre-season, but he ranked a lowly fifth for disposals in that zone.
Dylan Roberton $260,400 DEF – Tick
The return of Roberton is no doubt one of the feel-good football stories of 2020. He’s also an absolute bargain in SuperCoach. He was solid in his only pre-season outing, scoring 60 points from 82 per cent game time, also having 16 disposals and 17 uncontested possessions. The Magpies were accurate and only scored three behinds, and as a result, Roberton took one kick-in for the match.
SYDNEY SWANS
Jordan Dawson $467,800 DEF/FWD – Question mark
Dawson’s 125 points in the opening Marsh Community Series match needs to be put into context, as both Jake Lloyd and Callum Mills were missing from the side. When the latter returned for the final game, Dawson could manage only 50 points. Regardless, Dawson is a prime breakout candidate – scoring 114 points in the final home-and-away match in 2019.
Jake Lloyd $591,40000 DEF – Tick
Quite often with top-priced players, the mantra is to pick them up when they drop in price. But sometimes you just pick them because you know what you’re going to get. That’s the case with Lloyd. He has dropped below 80 points just twice in the past two seasons – averaging 111 and 109 points in that order.
Sam Naismith $251,500 RUCK – Question mark
I’m sure there are quite a few SuperCoaches tempted by Naismith as a starting option alongside one of Brodie Grundy or Max Gawn, but it’s a risky tactic. Naismith last played at AFL level during the 2017 finals series, managing just two games at NEAFL level since. He ranked mid-table for hitout-win rate, hitout-to-advantage rate and disposals of the top-20 for ruck contests attended during the pre-season.
WEST COAST
Andrew Gaff $583,200 MID – Tick
If vanilla is your flavour of choice, then Gaff is the player to pick. With the acquisition of Tim Kelly, there’s absolutely no chance that Gaff gets tagged, and his ability to find the ball on the outside is elite. He scored 133 points in his only pre-season match from 28 effective disposals, 23 uncontested possessions and one score assist.
Nic Naitanui $457,800 RUCK – Question mark
At the time of writing, around 13 per cent of SuperCoaches have opted to start with Naitanui. In terms of upside, there is plenty, but his poor durability in recent seasons has to count against him. In terms of output when on the ground, he led the competition for points per 100 minutes game time in 2019.
Jarrod Brander $133,000 DEF/FWD – Tick
Brander looms as a bolter for the Eagles and he’s in the frame for a Round 1 start. He was drafted as a key-position player but the Eagles look set to use his athleticism on the wing this season, a position he patrolled in the most recent pre-season game against the Dockers – finishing with 17 disposals and a disposal efficiency of 88 per cent. He also won 13 uncontested possessions and had three inside-50s.
WESTERN BULLDOGS
Caleb Daniel $537,900 DEF – Tick
Daniel’s move to defence was a SuperCoach success last season, posting career-best numbers. With the Bulldogs playing five of their opening seven matches at Marvel Stadium, the points should continue ticking over for Daniel, averaging 28 disposals and 103 points there from nine games in 2019. Daniel scored 99 and 62 in his two pre-season games.
Tim English $448,400 RUCK – Tick
There is plenty of excitement at the Bulldogs about English. Entering his fourth season, he has averaged 74 points from his first 29 career games – an identical return to ruck beast Brodie Grundy. English had a blinder in his only pre-season match, finishing with 123 points from 10 effective disposals, nine hitouts-to-advantage and two goals.
Josh Dunkley $632,400 MID – Tick
Splitting the three Bulldogs blue-chip midfielders is an impossible task. Essentially, you can’t go wrong with any of them. In terms of value for money, Dunkley has already proven he can match it with the best in the competition, ranking second in the AFL for points scored behind only Brodie Grundy in his time as a midfielder in 2019.
MORE SUPERCOACH
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Originally published as Ultimate Champion Data 2020 KFC SuperCoach formguide