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ANALYSIS

The key lessons from KFC SuperCoach Round 1

The big men scored the big points in KFC SuperCoach Round 1, with Brodie Grundy leading the way. Is it a trend we can expect to continue when footy returns? ROUND 1 LESSONS.

Tim Michell
4 min read
March 23, 2020 - 1:00PM
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How much can we take from a few games of football?

It’s a small sample size to work with, but Round 1 at least provided KFC SuperCoaches with an indication of the potential scoring patterns this year.

It was the first chance we had to look at how 16-minute quarters would impact KFC SuperCoach scoring and what the key changes would be.

But for all the changes in football for 2020, some things (such as Brodie Grundy scoring big) remain the same.

Here are some of the key takeaways from Round 1.

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1. RUCKMEN ARE THE NEW MIDFIELDERS

As Champion Data guru Fantasy Freako rightfully points out, nine games of football isn’t exactly a reliable sample size.

But, as it stands, this is what KFC SuperCoaches have to work with.

Perhaps the greatest lesson from Round 1 was the dominance of ruckmen in shortened matches.

Ten ruckmen scored 100 points or better, headlined by Brodie Grundy’s 179 against Western Bulldogs.

Was it something we can bank on for the rest of the year? Freako isn’t sure yet. “If you cast your mind back a few seasons ago it was the exact opposite,” he said.

“No one was scoring 100s in the early rounds, but then it picked up not long after. So it might be a little premature.”

Grundy is the perfect case study to determine the likelihood of ruckmen continuing to score big throughout 2020 in shorter matches.

Sydney ruckman Sam Naismith marked his return with a KFC SuperCoach ton.
Sydney ruckman Sam Naismith marked his return with a KFC SuperCoach ton.

His biggest score in 2019 was 174, when he had 25 disposals, eight marks, 50 hit outs, six clearances and four tackles.

Against the Dogs he had 19 disposals, three marks, three tackles, four clearances and 37 hit-outs yet scored five more points.

Essentially, he had six less disposals, 13 less hit outs, five less marks, one less tackle and two less clearances, yet scored more KFC SuperCoach points. How can this be?

The influence of ruckmen is shorter games will be pronounced and appears certain to translate to KFC SuperCoach scoring.

Jon Ceglar (RUC-FWD, Round 1 score 101), Darcy Fort (FWD, R1 score 94) and Paddy Ryder (RUC-FWD, R1 score 79) are big men who will be in serious trade consideration for KFC SuperCoaches when footy returns due to their dual-position eligibility.

Remember there’s still about 3300 KFC SuperCoach points to be allocated each match and ruckmen are guaranteed to be around the ball for large periods.

Ruckmen took 22 contested marks in Round 1 compared to 17 last year, The rate of hit-outs to advantage was 32.5 per cent, up from 28.8 per cent in Round 1 2019.

2. THE BEST WILL STILL SCORE BIG

Dustin Martin. Tick.

Patrick Cripps tick. Grundy tick.

Three KFC SuperCoach studs. Three tons in the opening two matches of Round 1.

Grundy continued his awe-inspiring record against the Dogs with 179, banking those who had him as their Round 1 captain 358 points. Martin posted 126 against the Blues, while Cripps added 112.

The competition’s elite — especially those who are regularly around the footy — won’t be impacted by the AFL trimming the length of quarters.

Dylan Shiel, Zach Merrett, Nat Fyfe, Rory Sloane, Isaac Heeney, Stephen Coniglio, Mitch Duncan, Ben Cunnington, Tom Mitchell, Lachie Neale and Shannon Hurn were other premiums who cracked the ton in Round 1.

3. WINNING TEAMS WILL DOMINATE SCORING

The successful teams in Round 1 scored an average of 1792 KFC SuperCoach points, compared to 1507 from the nine losing sides.

That’s a fairly significant difference and the equivalent of more than 10 points per player on average.

The difference in scoring in the Western Bulldogs (1375)-(1925) Collingwood match was 550 points, such as the domination by the Magpies.

It was a similar story in the Port Adelaide (1859)-(1440) Gold Coast match.

Our first look at KFC SuperCoach suggests it’s best to dodge players from teams won’t win often, unless they are the ilk of Patrick Cripps and co.

Jeremy Howe scored 156 points against Western Bulldogs.
Jeremy Howe scored 156 points against Western Bulldogs.

4. HALF-BACKS WILL FLOURISH

Perhaps the biggest talking point from Round 1 has been the dominance of halfbacks.

Sam Docherty (117) and Sam Petrevski-Seton (113) were Carlton’s top scorers against the Tigers, while Liam Baker (91) and Jayden Short (86) were prominent for the Tigers.

Intercept players appear likely to enjoy KFC SuperCoach success this year, with Jacob Weitering (102), Jeremy Howe (156) and Hayden Crozier (115) eclipsing 100.

That trend continued throughout Round 1 as Adam Saad (110), Nick Haynes (114), Tom Stewart (100), Darcy Byrne-Jones (114), Ben Long (118), Harris Andrews (103) and Shannon Hurn (152) scored prominently.

Look for players who rack up intercept possessions. Hurn, Haynes and Howe had nine marks in Round 1, while Docherty had seven and Stewart reeled in six.

Dustin Martin scored 40 points in five minutes just before halftime against Carlton.
Dustin Martin scored 40 points in five minutes just before halftime against Carlton.

5. POINTS CAN BE SCORED QUICKLY

Those who spent premium money to start Dustin Martin in their KFC SuperCoach team would have been concerned when he struggled to have much influence in the first quarter and a half against Carlton.

But Martin exploded in a five-minute period against the Blues, motoring from 25 to 69 points. There’s extra points on offer and those who are involved heavily in key periods of play will be rewarded handsomely.

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6. THOSE WHO STRUGGLE WILL REALLY STRUGGLE

There were seven players who posted 40 or less in the Western Bulldogs-Collingwood match and four players who scored 27 or less in Richmond’s victory over Carlton.

The early signs suggest those who struggle to assert any influence in 16-minute quarters are going to find the going tough in KFC SuperCoach.

Western Bulldogs had five forwards score 40 or less in a game where they only managed 22 inside-50s.

Across the nine Round 1 matches, there were 77 players who scored less than 50 at an average of 8.5 a match. Many of these were key forwards, key defenders and small forwards — traditionally poor scorers in KFC SuperCoach.

7. SEVERAL BIG GUNS ARE GOING TO DROP … FAST

Max Gawn (93 points, break-even 208), Jack Macrae (103, 172), Josh Dunkley (67, 223), Patrick Dangerfield (83, 187), Marcus Bontempelli (76, 200) and Jake Lloyd (77, 180) headline the KFC SuperCoach premium who will come much cheaper than their starting price by about Round 4.

The KFC SuperCoach system has changed and prices will rise or fall from Round 2, which means you can start planning your shopping spree early. We don’t know when footy will return, but when it does you won’t have to wait long to snag a bargain.

MORE AFL NEWS:

Sports Insider column: Coronavirus could impact on Marlion Pickett talks, while Melbourne confident of securing Jack Viney long-term

The 10 must-have KFC SuperCoach players to build your starting team around

Western Bulldogs made to look second-rate by relentless Collingwood in ‘nightmare’ start

AFL 2020: Recap all the action from Collingwood's win over Western Bulldogs

Originally published as The key lessons from KFC SuperCoach Round 1

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