SuperCoach Plus: 11 things you need to know for round 8 of the 2023 AFL season
A Nick Daicos warning, Will Setterfield red alert, key Tim Taranto numbers and this week’s best captain and rookie choices – plus more nuggets from SuperCoach Plus.
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Welcome to upgrade season.
This is the time of year when serious KFC SuperCoach players make their move.
Cash cows we purchased early for bargain basement prices have appreciated and are ready to be sent to pasture – and replaced by the big guns who can deliver big points every week.
Unfortunately, it’s not quite that simple. But SuperCoach Plus is here to help.
SuperCoach Plus is a treasure trove of stats and tools to help you make the best KFC SuperCoach calls. Access See Break Evens, price and score projections for every player, an updated injury list, bye planner and lots more. And SuperCoach Plus subscribers can see live KFC SuperCoach scores for every AFL game in the 2023 season.
And you get exclusive weekly analysis articles just like this one!
Here are 11 nuggets to help your team this week.
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1. SETTERFIELD STOPS
More than 50,000 coaches traded in Will Setterfield before his first price movement in round 3, and they have enjoyed a price bump of almost $100,000 since. But that profit is starting to evaporate, with Setterfield losing $17,000 in value over the past two weeks. After scoring a season-high 147 in round 2, Setterfield hasn’t got near that since – culminating in a season-low 51 points on the weekend. He had a season-low kicking efficiency of 43 per cent against the Cats and made just two tackle attempts (one effective tackle). He has been used in a defensive role in recent weeks, assigned to play on Tom Green, Clayton Oliver, Tom Mitchell, and Patrick Dangerfield – not a great sign for his KFC SuperCoach output. He has a Break Even of 117 this week and a projected score of just 78 against the Power. That would result in another $17,000 price hit before his value stabilises at around $400,000 in round 9.
2. DAICOS KRYPTONITE
Nick Daicos had his first ‘failure’ of the season on Sunday, scoring 72 points against the Crows – his first tally under 109 in seven rounds. Ben Keays became the first player this season to quell his influence despite conceding 25 disposals to him when they were matched up. Overall, only 15 of Daicos’s 27 disposals for the match were effective. He won a season-low four contested possessions and had a kicking efficiency of just 47 per cent, also a season-low return. Daicos had a disposal efficiency of just 60 per cent when he was under no pressure – down from 100 per cent in each of his previous two games. He is still the No.1 ranked defender in KFC SuperCoach but it might be smart to avoid him as a captaincy option this week with more attention likely from Sydney stopper Ryan Clarke.
3. BLUES BLITZ
Carlton’s obliteration of West Coast on Saturday night was one of the great all-time KFC SuperCoach wipeouts. Nine Carlton players passed 100 points, led by Charlie Curnow’s 186 and Patrick Cripps’ 153, with Nic Newman and Adam Cerra also topping 130. In contrast, the Eagles’ best return was 94 points from Liam Duggan. In total the Blues piled on 2114 points – the third-most by a team since 2018. West Coast has given up more KFC SuperCoach points to opponents than any other team in 2023, followed closely by North Melbourne and Hawthorn. Carlton, meanwhile, has given up the fewest points in the AFL.
4. ENGLISH KRYPTONITE
Tim English’s run of six straight 130-plus scores came to an abrupt end against Hawthorn. Ned Reeves and Max Ramsden don’t look like a powerhouse ruck combination on paper, but the Hawks have done a great job this season at restricting their opponents – heading into round 7, the Hawks had conceded an average of 72 points to opposition ruckmen, the second-fewest in the competition. On Saturday, English posted a season-low 11 disposals and five contested possessions. He had nine hitouts-to-advantage, while another nine were directly sharked by the opposition – losing a total of seven points from this source. Overall, English lost the head-to-head hitout-to-advantage battle with Reeves 12-6.
5. TARANTO FLIES FLAG
Richmond has issues all over the field and trade decisions will come under scrutiny after a one-win start to the season, but Tim Taranto is delivering on his end of the deal. The former Giant is averaging career-highs across the board – 31 disposals, 425m gained, 13 contested possessions, six clearances, seven score involvements and seven tackles. And, most importantly for his 111,000 owners, a career-high 118 KFC SuperCoach points – ranking him as the No.1 forward in the game. His price has increased more than $100,000 since round 1 and now sits at $603,400. Taranto’s kicking has been a topic of discussion this year, and his kicking efficiency has dropped from 60.9 per cent last year to 47.6 per cent this season. He has had 15 clanger kicks, but he isn’t the only ball-winner to register high numbers in that statistic – Stephen Coniglio and Clayton Oliver have both had 19 each.
6. ROOKIE TO THE RESCUE
Alex Cincotta was added to 27,000 teams last week and he’s the most popular trade-in this week as well, with another 22,000 teams pouncing on Carlton’s mature-age bubble boy. Following scores of 67 and 88 in his first two games, Cincotta – who is priced at just $102,400 – has a Break Even of -97 this round, the lowest in the competition. He is projected to jump $63,000 in value even with a modest score of 42 against the Lions. Almost as importantly, he can provide valuable bench cover across two lines thanks to his DEF/MID eligibility. Sam Simpson (-43), Ryan Angwin (-33) and Brynn Tackle (-32) are also on the bubble and set to jump in value if they play their third games this weekend.
7. CAPTAINS CORNER
Round 7 produced some big captain scores and there are some good options across round 8, starting with Lachie Neale on Friday night – he averages 128 in his past five games against Carlton. Clayton Oliver is always a safe pick and should go big against the Suns – he averages 131 in his past three against them, while Christian Petracca averages 127 in the same period. Marcus Bontempelli averages 116 in his past three against GWS and if we look at the teams giving up bulk points, Tim Taranto could be an option against the Eagles and Jack Sinclair (140) and Jack Steele (154) both went big against the Kangaroos last year.
8. STEWART’S EARLY CROW
Tom Stewart owners should seriously consider putting the VC or C on him on Saturday afternoon. He averages 135 in his past three against Adelaide and 123 KFC SuperCoach points in his past seven games at GMHBA Stadium. The last time these teams met, in round 11 last year, he had 40 disposals, 16 marks and 174 points. Stewart is averaging 107.7 KFC SuperCoach points this year – and 125 since returning from injury in round 3.
9. KING-SIZED BARGAIN
Last week we highlighted Oscar Allen as a bargain that got away for most coaches, and Gold Coast spearhead Ben King can be placed in the same category. After starting the season with a score of 19 against Sydney, and adding 23 and 31 in rounds 4 and 5, he has gone bang – posting 104 against North Melbourne and backing it up with 100 against Richmond after kicking 9.0 across both matches. His price shot up $47,500 after round 7 and he enters round 8 with a Break Even of -47, so there is a lot more cash to be made for his 12,000 owners – SuperCoach Plus projects he’ll hit $330k in round 10 after starting the year at $176,300. Maybe we should consider key forward cheapies after all.
10. CHEAPIE CHAD
Many KFC SuperCoaches will have fond memories of owning Chad Wingard in the past, notably in 2015 when he averaged 97.8 points across 22 games. He also topped the 90-point mark in 2017 and 2021. But his output has nosedived since and this year he is averaging a career-low 42.2 points a game. That includes an injury-affected score of 4 against GWS and a sub-affected 15 the next week against Geelong. As a result his price has plummeted more than $95,000 to sit at an almost rookie level $256,600. His scores the past two weeks have shown signs of improvement, posting 70 and 75 points, and he has a Break Even of 1 this week. Bargain, anyone?
11. SUNS STEAL
Speaking of extreme KFC SuperCoach bargains, Gold Coast’s Rory Atkins makes the top 10 of traded-in players this week, with more than 3000 coaches seeing something they like in the former Crow. Atkins played his first game for the season on Sunday against Richmond, posting 89 points from 25 disposals (18 kicks), 11 marks and five intercepts. He also took two kick-ins. They are handy numbers but not outstanding, but the appeal is clearly Atkins’ price – he’s valued at just $203,900 and has DEF/MID eligibility. It’s understandable that coaches are looking for value but it’s worth bearing in mind that Atkins averaged 32 in nine matches last year and 46 from eight games the year before. At least hold off until after his second game – against the Demons – before committing!
Originally published as SuperCoach Plus: 11 things you need to know for round 8 of the 2023 AFL season
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