SuperCoach AFL: The point-of-difference picks to set your team apart from the pack
Some of the top SuperCoach scorers from recent years are being largely ignored this season, giving coaches the perfect opportunity to add a unique selection to their teams. We profile the best options in less than 10 per cent of sides.
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Anyone can tell you that Marcus Bontempelli is a great SuperCoach selection.
Or that Tom Stewart will score hundreds in your defence most weeks.
What separates the best coaches from the rest is their ability to identify a POD (point-of-difference).
Last year it was Tom Liberatore, Luke Ryan, Caleb Serong and Dan Houston who excelled.
This year, three of those four remain PODs.
Pre-season matches are sure to shake up the SuperCoach ownership figures and provide a greater guide to which players are must-haves.
But for now, there are some brilliant POD picks who can help give your side an edge.
TOP SUPERCOACH PODS
*OWNERSHIP FIGURES AS OF FEBRUARY 7
TIM ENGLISH 9.6%
It was probably inevitable that tens of thousands of coaches would look elsewhere when English was one of only two players with a price tag above $700k this year. When a player is that expensive, most SuperCoaches look for any excuse not to start them and an interrupted pre-season due to migraine issues has given them reason to overlook English. But it’s worth a reminder of why he’s so expensive. Last season, English scored 313 more points than any other ruckman and his average was 13.7 points a game better than Rowan Marshall (ranked second) and 19.1 points a game higher than Kieren Briggs (ranked third). If popular options such as Brodie Grundy and Max Gawn start slowly, English could be a great POD.
ZACH MERRETT 8.9%
The Bombers skipper has traditionally been a slow starter, which is why many SuperCoaches like to wait and make him one of their first midfield upgrades. In 2022, Merrett dropped by more than $100k before rocketing home with six scores of 133 or more points in his last eight matches. His drop off was not as significant last year, hitting a low of $564k (-$53k) in round 10. Merrett’s scoring has been so consistent in recent years that fading him in the hope of a hefty discount might not be worth it, as it has been in previous seasons. He might lose $100k by mid-season if he has one quiet week, but how many points will you have missed out on in the meantime? Merrett has averaged between 112.2 and 116.3 points in the past four years.
ANDREW BRAYSHAW 8.6%
As coaches gravitate towards Jeremy Sharp (50%), Hayden Young (36%), Nat Fyfe (30%) and Luke Jackson (19%), Brayshaw has become somewhat of a forgotten Docker. His ownership is about 2 per cent lower than midfield comrade Caleb Serong, who just falls outside POD territory. Brayshaw battled through the opening nine rounds last year, averaging 97 points and only hitting triple figures three times. But his performances from round 10 on were a reminder of his quality. Brayshaw only dipped below 100 once and averaged 116.5 from that point on.
CAMERON GUTHRIE 8.1%
The Cats are bullish about Guthrie’s pre-season after he was restricted to six games last year due to a toe injury which required surgery. While a return to the heights of 2021 — when he averaged 113 — seems a long shot, Guthrie is underpriced at $420k and has real potential as a stepping stone to a fallen premium. He might be the bargain M5 or M6 you need to complement all the big guns — and eventually become one of them when his price peaks.
CONNOR ROZEE 7%
All the off-season buzz out of Alberton has been about Zak Butters and the new skipper Connor Rozee seems to have flown largely under the radar. It’d be a brave SuperCoach to predict that at 24 years of age and now with leadership responsibilities, Rozee’s scoring would regress after going from 93.3 to 107.6 last year. There’s been some talk of him spending extra time in attack due to Ollie Wines being reintegrated into the midfield mix, but I just can’t see it happening. I’ve even thought about running with a Butters-Rozee one-two punch in my SuperCoach midfield as I think the only way is up for Rozee.
CALEB WINDSOR 9.1%
The Demons’ No.7 draft pick has been winning rave reviews in pre-season as he presses for a round 1 debut. The only question is where he fits in, with Ed Langdon and Lachie Hunter likely Simon Goodwin’s preferred wingmen. Windsor’s ownership rose by almost 3 per cent overnight after Christian Petracca revealed he had been telling his mates to make sure the 18-year-old was in their SuperCoach teams. With FWD-MID eligibility and a slick pre-season highlights package which has been doing the rounds, it’s unlikely he stays a POD for long.
JAI NEWCOMBE 5.2%
It’s never easy to predict which midfielder will take the next step and go from fringe SuperCoach premium to a bona fide star, but Newcombe has all the hallmarks of a player destined for a fourth-year breakout. The Hawks midfield bull posted 12 tons last year including a monster score of 174 in round 22. Newcombe is a player whose game is based on contested possessions, tackling and clearance work — which all score heavily in SuperCoach. If he can clean up his ball use a bit, a full premium breakout is on the cards and coaches who start him at less than $550k will be handsomely rewarded.
CALEB DANIEL 5.2%
Daniel is the sixth most-expensive forward this year after averaging 92.8 last year — which says a lot about the lack of depth in this season’s premiums. Daniel could yet emerge as the pick of the starting options after spending time training with the Bulldogs midfield during pre-season. He’s by no means a perfect option, but there really isn’t one in the forward premiums this year. If he gets the nod as a starting midfielder over Jack Macrae, be prepared to pivot your F1 spot to Daniel. He’s clean by hand and foot and a boost in contested possessions would only help Daniel’s scoring.
DAN HOUSTON 4.6%
When so much focus — understandably — goes on Daicos, Sicily and Stewart, it’s easy to forget how good Houston was last year. He averaged 100+ for the first time in his career, scoring 14 tons in 23 games. The standout factor about Houston’s season was that each of his tons were 109 points or higher, highlighting his significant scoring ceiling. In a six-week period from rounds 14-20 (including a bye), Houston went 146, 156, 85, 176, 120 and 122. Port Adelaide also has the best bye of the year in round 13, when only the Power and Fremantle don’t play.
TRISTAN XERRI 4%
One of the only recognised ruckmen left on North Melbourne’s list, Xerri was looming as a popular starting pick before having his pre-season interrupted by facial surgery. While he’s back in training now, that setback caused many SuperCoaches to look elsewhere and go for more popular options such as Brodie Grundy and Max Gawn. Xerri looked prime for a premium breakout in 2023 when he was Alastair Clarkson’s round 1 ruckman, only to go down with injury. By the time he returned, Todd Goldstein had re-established himself as North’s No.1 But with Goldstein moving on to Essendon, the ruck position is Xerri’s to lose — with very few back-up options.
TOBY CONWAY 4%
It’s been a slow burn for the young Cats ruckman who has had plenty of hype but had to wait until round 24 last year to debut. Conway had 24 hit-outs against Western Bulldogs and starts this year with an elevated price as a result of his last-round debut. The interest now is whether Conway can unseat Rhys Stanley to become Geelong’s sole ruckman. He’s still yet to turn 21, so it would likely be a big ask for him to carry the ruck on his own. But if he’s named one-out in round 1, it’s going to be very tempting for coaches to start the talented big man at R2 and spend big elsewhere. Conway averaged 95 ranking points in three VFL matches last year.
TOM LIBERATORE 3.6%
Libba couldn’t really have done more to get some love from SuperCoaches, averaging 116 last season (ranked seventh of all mids). If you disregard the match where he was concussed on 20 points, Liberatore averaged 120.8 points with 13 scores of 120 or better from his remaining 20 matches. He ranked third in the AFL for contested possessions (14.5), equal ninth for tackles (6.7) and first for clearances (8).
CONNOR BUDARICK 3.2%
The Phantom’s favourite saying is that good kicking is good SuperCoach. And frankly, it’s hard to disagree. Phantom flagged Budarick as one of his leading breakout contenders and when a player makes his must-read pre-season guide, you know they are a fair chance of a scoring spike. Budarick said in a recent interview Damien Hardwick wants to use him in a similar role to the one which has been profitable for Jayden Short and Daniel Rioli in recent seasons. Budarick is just over $300k and had 24 effective kicks (out of 29) in his two games last year after returning from an ACL injury. Awkward price, but big upside.
LUKE RYAN 3%
Hard to believe the No.1 defender for total points last year is only in this many teams. Ryan should have a monopoly on kick-outs this year with Hayden Young moving to midfield, is durable (playing 45 games in the past two seasons) and averaged seven intercept possessions a game. One of the best things about owning Ryan in SuperCoach is his scoring floor is so high. His lowest score last year was 83 and with every kick out worth an average of four points, that floor is unlikely to drop in 2024.
KARL AMON 2.8%
Watch this percentage rise as soon as coaches see Karl Amon running amok in defence during pre-season games. Amon played 405 minutes in defence last year for Hawthorn and averaged 32 disposals, 730 metres gained and 9.6 marks a game. Amon’s price ($483k) is off-putting, but there are several reasons to consider him — positive role change for scoring, likely DPP after round 6 and potential to be a finishing D6 for less than $500k are the main three. He went behind the ball in the last month of 2023 and scored three tons in his last four games.
CONNOR MACDONALD 2%
Always tough to know how much to read into pre-season mail, but the buzz out of Hawthorn is growing louder about Macdonald’s increased midfield role. There is a bit of James Worpel of 2019 about Macdonald. Worpel was $395k going into his second year (Macdonald is $381k) and the Worpedo lifted his average from 72.9 to a career-high 97. Macdonald’s average last year was 68.2. It’s possible SuperCoaches are getting a bit desperate with the severe lack of forward premiums, but any indication of a full-time midfield move will lead to a huge spike in Macdonald’s ownership.
OLLIE WINES 1.6%
Was Wines’ worst SuperCoach average since 2013 a sign of decline or simply down to a role change? Port Adelaide has indicated the Brownlow winner will be back at the coalface this year after a significant dip in his contested ball numbers last year (from a career-best 14.8 in 2021 to 9.1 in 2023). Being back in the middle during pre-season is encouraging, but you have to wonder how much midfield time Wines will get with Jason Horne-Francis, Zak Butters and Connor Rozee stepping up and Willem Drew still an important part of Ken Hinkley’s set-up. If the inside midfield role comes to fruition, Wines is likely underpriced by about 20 points.
BRADY HOUGH 0.1%
No POD list is complete without one player from left field. Shannon Hurn’s retirement has left the door ajar for a points boost for West Coast’s remaining defenders, headlined by Liam Duggan, Alex Witherden and Hough. The Eagles have been very bullish about Hough’s off-season progress after playing 30 games in his first two seasons with the club. He finished last year with scores of 86, 86, 76, 65, 51 and 107, an average of 78 points over those six games. If Hough could maintain that level of scoring (or improve by 5-10 points), it wouldn’t be long before he breached $400k and could be flipped for a fallen premium.
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