KFC SuperCoach Plus Article: 11 things you need to know for Round 11

From Clayton Oliver’s insane stats to price projections and vital captain tips, don’t miss these 11 nuggets of KFC SuperCoach Plus Round 11 gold.

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From price and score projections to a stunning Tom Powell stat and everything you need to know about Clayton Oliver’s monster game against the Crows, here are the 11 key stats you need to know ahead of Round 11:

TRADE GUIDE: BIG GUNS, BOLTERS AND BARGAINS

1. Will the real Tom Mitchell please stand up? After dominating against West Coast in Round 8 (41 disposals, 17 contested possessions, 147 KFC SuperCoach points), thousands of coaches traded in the Brownlow medallist only to be let down the next week (28 disposals, three contested possessions, 76 SuperCoach points). But normal service (we hope) resumed against Carlton with Mitchell getting another dose of leather poisoning — 44 disposals, 16 contested possessions, 609 metres gained, 12 groundball gets (up from two the previous week) and eight clearances (up from two against North Melbourne). We should have trusted the career stats tab in SuperCoach Plus — Mitchell has now scored 142, 164, 192 and 161 in his past four games against the Blues.

Jack Macrae has a good record against the Demons. Picture: Michael Klein

2. Players’ scoring history against this week’s opponent can guide us in selecting a captain from the bonanza of scoring options in Friday night’s Western Bulldogs v Melbourne blockbuster. Clayton Oliver is fresh off a 204 but doesn’t have an amazing record against the Dogs, averaging an even 100 points from his past three games against them. Christian Petracca averages 94 from his past three against the Bulldogs while Jack Macrae (122) and Marcus Bontempelli (119) both have good recent records against the Demons. Max Gawn is the standout with an average of 129 from his past three against the Dogs, although he hasn’t played them since 2019. But he could be up against inexperienced ruckman Jordan Sweet, who last weekend lost the hitouts 41-16 to Paddy Ryder.

3. Other players who boast strong recent history against this week’s opponent include Dustin Martin (three-round average of 128 v Adelaide), Rory Laird (117 v the Tigers), Brodie Grundy (121 v Geelong), and Jake Lloyd, who has scored 114, 130 and 115 in his past three games against Carlton. Lloyd is the fourth-ranked defender this season with a 105.5 average but that is down from 122.2 last year. In 2020 Lloyd dropped under 100 only once in 17 games, this year he has failed to hit three figures four times in the first 10 rounds — although three of those were 98 (and the other was 95). As a result he has dropped $114,000 from his starting price.

Jake Lloyd is a reliable scorer in defence.

4. One player with a red flag this weekend is Dayne Zorko. He has a three-round average of 120.7 but his career average of 89.1 against GWS is his worst against any team. He has a career-high of 116 in 10 matches against the Giants and averages 85.6 from his past three, including a 46. But those scores did come in the Matt de Boer era and the master tagger won’t be there this weekend. Brisbane’s big guns have struggled in recent years against GWS — Jarryd Lyons has played the Giants twice in the past two years for scores of 114 and 50 and Hugh McCluggage has a career-best of 97 in five encounters. One player who is very hard to judge is Joe Daniher, who hasn’t played the Giants since 2017, missing the past four games against them with injury.

5. Centre-bounce attendances has become a key stat for committed KFC SuperCoaches, with the number often an indication of how lucrative a player’s role is. But it doesn’t always translate to points on the board. Kangaroos youngster Tom Powell’s CBAs have spiked from 24 per cent over the first eight rounds to 50 per cent in the past two weeks, and his clearances are up slightly from an average of 1.5 to two per game. But his numbers are down everywhere else — he averaged 18.9 disposals from Rounds 1-8 and just 12 the past two weeks, marks are down from 4.6 to 1.0 and groundball gets have dropped from 5.6 to 1.5. Given those stats it’s no surprise his KFC SuperCoach average has fallen off a cliff, down from 77.3 over the first eight rounds to 47 over the past two weeks.

Brisbane Lions rookie James Madden is a popular trade target. Picture: Tara Croser

6. A whopping 32,000 coaches traded Powell out last week, avoiding a $25,100 price drop after Round 10. He has now fallen to 18th on the list of most popular players but more than 61,000 coaches still have to decide what to do with him this week. Powell has a break even of 115 heading into Round 11 and based on a projected score of 72 he’s about to shed another $18,800 before getting a rest during the Roos’ Round 12 bye. More than 5000 have hit the trade button on Powell this week with Lion James Madden (679 trades), Cody Weightman (411) and Clayton Oliver (258) the most popular replacements.

7. Coaches are jumping off Bulldog Anthony Scott in droves — more than 14,000 have cut ties with the former $102k rookie, making him the most traded out player this week ahead of James Jordon and Tom Powell. Scott dropped $4700 in value after scoring just 18 points from five disposals against the Bulldogs and is projected to lose another $15,300 this week with a break even of 93. But after playing every game and rising more than $179,000, he rates as one of the best starting rookie picks of 2021. More than 10,000 coaches are cashing in Scott by trading him to Madden or Weightman, with some taking the punt on Isaac Heeney (543 trades), Dustin Martin (135) or teammate Bailey Dale (115).

Anthony Scott was recruited from the Bulldogs’ VFL team.

8. Weightman has the lowest break even heading into Round 11 (-70) ahead of Madden (-51), the two clear rookie standouts this week. They aren’t the only bubble boys but the other options don’t scream ‘pick me’ — Hugo Ralphsmith ($123,900 FWD/MID) is projected to rise just $4500 after his third game (if he holds his spot with a number of Tiger stars due to return from injury). Weightman costs $50,000 more than Madden but is projected to make more money thanks to his 98 against the Saints that will stay in his price cycle for another two weeks. SuperCoach Plus projects a score of 54 against the Demons that will result in a $54k price jump and a new BE of -16. The Dogs have a bye in Round 13 but he should add close to $100k to his price tag by then. Madden has a bye the same week and is forecast to head into the same bye round with a $218k price tag but should eventually reach $300k if he can hold his spot in the Lions side.

9. Dustin Martin looked like an obvious trade target last week at a bargain price and with an attractive match-up looming against Brisbane. But we failed to take into account super stopper Brandon Starcevich. The young Lions defender held Dusty goalless but we shouldn’t be too upset with his 86 KFC SuperCoach points — that’s the highest score by any of Starcevich’s key opponents this season. Other players he has spent at least 50 minutes matched up on this year include Jordan De Goey (51 SuperCoach points), Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti (45), Michael Gibbons (22), Michael Walters (62) and Izak Rankine (33). Consider his potential match-up before putting the C on any player against Brisbane.

10. Clayton Oliver posted a rare 200-point game against the Crows, falling one short of his career-best 205 against Adelaide last year (when the clubs meet again in Round 22, put the C on Clarry!). Oliver collected 38 disposals, 27 contested possessions, 13 clearances, nine tackles, eight inside-50s and a career-high three goals from 94 per cent time on ground. His scoring went ballistic after halftime, following up a 62-point first half with 63 points in the third quarter and an incredible 79 in the nailbiting final term. His price spiked $47,800 after lockout but with a break even of 45 he presents some value at $652,900. Based on SuperCoach Plus projections his price will be well over $700,000 before Melbourne’s Round 14 bye.

Clayton Oliver is in incredible form.

11. Just over 6500 coaches had Oliver as captain last round and another 10,175 had the VC on him. The happiest coaches were the 2800 who traded Oliver in last week, but those who picked him up a month ago when his price had dropped to $597,100 made what could be the move of the season. A total of 5372 coaches picked up Oliver that week but he was far from the most popular trade of the round. Jack Macrae was added to 18,537 teams despite his $666k price tag (he has dropped 45k since), while other popular recruits included Riley Thilthorpe (9931 trades), Dayne Zorko (9916), Toby Greene (6418) and Port Adelaide rookie Martin Frederick (6124). Surprisingly, 129 more coaches picked up Oliver’s teammate Christian Petracca when they were around the same price. In the four weeks since Oliver has outscored Petracca by more than 200 points. Still, it could be worse — 460 coaches have traded Oliver out of their team at some stage this season.

Originally published as KFC SuperCoach Plus Article: 11 things you need to know for Round 11