KFC SuperCoach Investor: Trade strategy entering crucial bye rounds

The most important part of the KFC SuperCoach season is upon us, and one of this year’s top rookies is a key to survival. TRADE STRATEGY

There were some serious market movers among the KFC SuperCoach community as we approach the most pivotal period of the AFL Season.

The Grand Final, you may ask? No, much more important than that. As the 90s boy band NYSNC will attest – it’s all about the “Bye(s), Bye(s), Bye(s)”.

The KFC SuperCoach Investor Daniel Begala evaluates the key decisions impacting coaches as we embark on the final week of “normal” trading activity prior to the scheduled byes (Rounds 12, 13 and 14).

TRADING HALT

The most challenging yet rewarding period of the KFC SuperCoach calendar is upon us.

We’re one week out from three successive trading halts for six teams in each of the three bye rounds — if they AFL fixture proceeds as planned.

Some coaches have meticulously planned and manoeuvred to prosper amid the anticipated headwinds.

Other coaches, however, could be in for a rude awakening, or two, or three if their SuperCoach portfolio is not sufficiently diversified.

The KFC SuperCoach Investor is bullishly holding hope of pivoting out of the bye period in Round 15 with a fully-fledged portfolio of premium assets in all 22 on-field slots.

It’s ambitious, but it’s a stretch goal that most should aim for if your primary goal is rankings royalty. It’s certainly mine.

Max Gawn is one of a number of stars scheduled to have a week off in Round 14.

Next week I will share my key targets and stepping stones for Rounds 12, 13 and 14 as I look to navigate the byes, and supercharge my side for the run home.

Some coaches may fear the byes. Some coaches may revere the byes.

I see opportunity and always reflect on this special time on the KFC SuperCoach calendar where the most significant rankings inroads can be achieved.

Trade well.

FLEEING FLYNN

FY19, there was Reilly O’Brien (“ROB”).

FY20, we were graced by Marc Pittonet.

FY21, we’ve been grateful for the intermittent heroics of Matthew Flynn.

Like all good things, however, Flynn is fast approach his crescendo as a KFC SuperCoach cash cow.

While he could provide on-field cover in Round 14 when Brodie Grundy and Max Gawn serve their bye, it’s likely that most coaches will short Flynn in R12 in favour of an immediate cash injection into our portfolios.

This week looms as Flynn’s final send-off, and what a way to go as he shares rucking duties with his on-and-off field mentor, Shane Mumford, with a lowly break even of 12 KFC SuperCoach points.

GWS Giants big man Matthew Kennedy.

Coaches are hoping for one final hurrah and a KFC SuperCoach score that injects as much capital into their portfolios as possible.

Cash is king, after all, so please Leon – play the kid just this one last time.

There will be a litany of options next week, too, including Ned “Keanu” Reeves ($124K), Zac Smith ($216K) and the floating doughnut candidates ($102K) who don’t offer as much DPP flexibility as years gone past.

The most aggressive coaches may be looking to jettison Flynn this week to redeploy capital into other areas of their portfolio.

The quicker cash in Flynn, the quicker you can turn the fatiguing James Jordon ($366K, BE 75) into a barnstorming Clayton Oliver that will generate – on average – fifty additional points per week.

Extrapolating that out across, say, 10 rounds is a cool, hard, 500 points.

Google: “Opportunity Cost” and you’ll see a photo of Matthew Flynn.

ROOKIE REVELRY

The rookies are drying up, they said.

There are no rookies, they said.

Well, folks, we’ve been blessed over the past fortnight and it’s time to lap up what looks to be the second-last wave of rookie relevancy before we graduate to fully-fledged premium portfolios.

In one corner, we have James Madden ($123K, DEF/FWD) who thrived in his second opportunity for the Lions, but looks to be the subject of weekly selection pressures.

In the other corner and fresh off a NAB Rising Star Nomination, we have sophomore rookie Cody Weightman ($174K, FWD), who boasts the lowest break even in KFC SuperCoach this week (-71).

There are arguments that favour each, or both, but my heart lies with Weightman.

He’s a second year prospect, a top-end draft pick and brings electric forward pressure to the barnstorming Bulldogs.

I’m not fixated on the outcome (points), more importantly I expect Weightman to hold his spot indefinitely given the apprenticeship he’s served in the state competition and the quality of his first two games.

Brisbane Lions champion Lachie Neale with Irish recruit James Madden.

Madden, comparably, offers untapped flexibility given his dual position status as a FWD/DEF – this cannot be underestimated.

As flagged in this week’s SuperCoach AFL podcast, Aiden Fyfe (MID/DEF), has been one of the most integral assets in my portfolio as he has enabled me to manoeuvre trades across my DEF, MID and FWD line leveraging his – and other – DPP players.

Flexibility is the key to negotiating the headwinds that we will inevitably face in the second half of FY21.

Take Weightman if you’re chasing job security and (highly volatile) dividends.

Take Madden if you’re chasing a downgrade target, not too fussed if he’s imminently dropped and appreciate the freedom and flexibility he avails your side.

Trade well.

Originally published as KFC SuperCoach Investor: Trade strategy entering crucial bye rounds