KFC SuperCoach: Fantasy Freako’s ultimate ruck guide for 2020
Max Gawn remains under an injury cloud – who are the SuperCoach alternatives? Champion Data number cruncher Fantasy Freako has his say. Plus, a breakdown of how ruck scoring works.
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A KFC SuperCoach’s demeanour is often reflected in their team selection.
Whether it be conservative, risky or completely out there – we all fall under one umbrella. If you’re after success though, then the conservative route has been proven to pay the biggest dividends.
In 2019, that meant starting with Brodie Grundy and Max Gawn, and they didn’t let anyone down – ranking first and second respectively for total points scored in the competition. As a duo, they scored 100-plus points in 36 of a combined 43 games played – which included eclipsing 120 points 29 times.
The result of matches didn’t affect their scoring either, as both averaged in excess of 125 points in both wins and losses. Even on their travels they dominated, with Grundy averaging 136 points in games outside Victoria compared to Gawn’s 130.
These numbers are reassuring and further enhance their status as the best ruck combination in KFC SuperCoach, but heading into 2020, we hit an early hurdle. Gawn suffered a medial ligament strain at a training camp in Maroochydore at the end of January, but he has returned to training since and is hopeful of playing in the final pre-season match.
BEST OF THE REST
If you’re not splashing the cash and going with the ‘big-two’, then there are several other ruckmen to consider. But you’ll be giving up on average at least 30 points per game to the rest of the competition – so keep that in kind before making the final call.
Todd Goldstein $609,400 – Tick
Ownership: 3 per cent
Marsh Series score: 100
Goldstein is always in the mix as a starting ruck option. He finished last season in blazing fashion and averaged 128 points from Round 16 onward – ranked fourth in the league behind Brodie Grundy (130), Josh Dunkley (132) and Max Gawn (135). Goldstein’s 112-point average was his equal third-best on record – dropping below 90 points just three times.
Rowan Marshall $598,700 – Question mark
Ownership: 11 per cent
2019 average: 110.3
Marsh score: 117
If losing DPP status wasn’t enough to put SuperCoaches off Marshall, then the arrival of Paddy Ryder drops him even further down the ruck depth chart. He shared the ruck duties with Ryder in the opening Marsh Community Series match, attending 50 ruck contests to Ryder’s 28. A 47-point final term burst from Marshall pushed his score well over 100 as Ryder was rested on the bench.
Scott Lycett $550,600 – Tick
Ownership: 2 per cent
2019 average: 101.4
Marsh score: DNP
The departure of Paddy Ryder propels Lycett up the ruck ranks. He enjoyed a breakout season in his first year at Alberton – averaging 101 points from 18 games – a 23-point spike from 2018. In the five games Ryder missed last year, Lycett scored 180, 167, 109, 86 and 85 points in that order. But if we break down his scoring – he struggled against the ‘big boys’ – scoring 69 against Max Gawn and 48 points against both Brodie Grundy and Stefan Martin.
Reilly O’Brien $517,400 – Tick
Ownership: 7 per cent
2019 average: 95.3
Marsh score: 95
The emergence of O’Brien was one of very few positives for the Crows last season. He ousted long standing No. 1 ruckman, Sam Jacobs, forcing him into the SANFL. O’Brien and Jacobs only played together once – with the former scoring just 60 points against St Kilda in Round 20. O’Brien showed glimpses of his scoring potential – returning 104, 182 and 120 points in a three-week burst mid-year. He scored a solid 96 points in the opening Marsh Community Series clash against the Demons.
Nic Naitanui $457,800 – Gamble
Ownership: 13 per cent
2019 average: 93.7
Naitanui is the 14th most expensive ruckman in SuperCoach and is a proven scorer when fit, but his poor durability has to count against him. Naitanui averaged 137 points per 100 minutes game time in 2019 – ranked No. 1 in the AFL. He’ll once again be used in bursts by Adam Simpson – averaging 81, 69 and 69 minutes per game in each of his past three seasons.
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Tim English $448,400 – Gamble
Ownership: 4 per cent
2019 average: 82.6
Marsh score: DNP
Entering his fourth season, we could see English take a major step forward in 2020. His numbers have improved in every season, starting with a 28-point spike from his debut season, to another 19-point increase last year. If we compare him to Brodie Grundy after the same matches played (29) – both players have averaged 74 points at the same stage of their careers.
Sam Jacobs $348,400 – Gamble
Ownership: 14 per cent
2019 average: 80.2
In terms of value, Jacobs is perhaps the best cut-price ruck option in SuperCoach. Injury and the emergence of Reilly O’Brien last season kept Jacobs to just five games, but he’s expected to play a key role for the Giants this season. Jacobs posted a career-high hitout win rate of 53% in 2019, however his 80 points per game were his fewest since 2010. Jacobs is the 26th most expensive ruckman in the game which highlights his value, but he’s a gamble nonetheless.
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Hitout win percentage
With the exception of the retired Aaron Sandilands, Max Gawn’s hitout win percentage of 57.9% was the highest of any ruckman in the competition. Gawn ranked third overall for hit-outs, but it was at centre bounces where he came into his own – recording a competition-high 306 centre bounce hit-outs.
New Saint, Paddy Ryder (56.7%) ranked second behind Gawn for hitout win percentage, while Brodie Grundy (53.2%) and Sam Jacobs and Jarrod Witts (both 52.8%) round out the top-four.
The table below highlights the dominance of Gawn and Grundy in terms of winning hit-outs, but hit-outs alone don’t earn you any SuperCoach points.
Hitout-to-advantage rate
Winning the hitout is one thing, but finding a teammate is what earns a ruckman SuperCoach points. A hitout alone is worth zero points, while a hitout-to-advantage is worth five points as a raw figure.
Surprisingly, it was new Bomber, Andrew Phillips who recorded the highest hitout-to-advantage rate of any ruckman – finding a teammate with 40.8% of all hit-outs. Tom Bellchambers (36.3%) was next highest, while Max Gawn (34.5%) and Todd Goldstein (34.2%) round out the top-four.
If we look at ruck-rover combinations across the league – no one combined more often than Goldstein and Ben Cunnington (78). Gawn and Clayton Oliver (65) were next best, while Stefan Martin and Lachie Neale (56) and Brodie Grundy and Adam Treloar (47) round out the top-four.
Lowest hitout shark percentage
Winning a hitout that goes directly to the opposition isn’t what we want from a ruckman. The net result is a one-point deficit from his overall tally. So, I wouldn’t be cheering hit-outs alone.
If we rank rucks by their shark rate from hit-outs, Rory Lobb’s 14.1% is the lowest percentage of the top-25 for total ruck contests attended. He’s likely to share the duties with Sean Darcy, so his SuperCoach relevance isn’t that high. Todd Goldstein (14.2%), Scott Lycett (14.7%) and Tom Hickey (15.4) aren’t too far behind.
Highest hitout shark percentage
At the opposite end, Nathan Vardy’s shark rate of 22.8% was the highest of the sample group. Luckily for SuperCoaches, he isn’t a relevant option. Stefan Martin (22.1%), Jonathon Ceglar (22.0%) and Paddy Ryder (21.5%) are also on the wrong side of this statistic.
Final Word
There is nothing to suggest that Grundy won’t retain his mantle as the No. 1 scoring player in SuperCoach, so don’t even flinch when it comes to picking him. With back-to-back averages of 130 points, he’ll once again be one of the most popular picks in the game. The added bonus of captaincy makes him an absolute must-have!
Also, it’s hard to overlook Gawn, despite his injury-interrupted pre-season. He’ll once again reward SuperCoaches with plenty of points – as he has done in each of the past two seasons.
If you’re going down the value path, then Lycett is one to consider. He’s the No. 1 ruckman at the Power heading into the season and has missed just one match through injury in the past two seasons. He was prolific at times and had three 160+ scores to his name – eclipsing the 100 mark in seven of his final nine games. He looks set for a huge year!
You could look to save even more funds should you opt for Sam Jacobs, but Shane Mumford will always be in his shadow, so he does come with an element of risk. Ultimately, the set-and-forget combination of Grundy-Gawn is a proven one and the one to strive for – even though both will be starting at exorbitant prices.
Best of luck picking your ruck combination!
Originally published as KFC SuperCoach: Fantasy Freako’s ultimate ruck guide for 2020
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