KFC SuperCoach analysis: Will higher-priced rookies generate the cash we need?

A shortage of bottom-priced players has sparked SuperCoach alarm, but expert Anthony Hack decided to crunch the numbers on which rookies make the most money. The results were surprising.

Oh no! Where are all the rookies this year?

It’s less than a week out from the season starting, and we’re not hearing about many rookies who are likely Round 1 starters, especially the cheaper ones.

KFC SuperCoach players everywhere have our fingers crossed while waiting for the

Round 1 teams to be announced, just hoping for enough rookie-priced players to fit the team structure we want.

Usually an ideal structure requires several bottom-priced rookies to allow us enough cash to load up on ultra premiums.

And this tactic has always been backed up by data in that shows it has always been the cheaper rookies who have gained value quicker and more easily.

The 2019 season was different. Last year, there was a lot more parity among rookies of all prices — on averages, cheap rookies generally gained in value just as quickly as expensive rookies.

I have written several articles over the years for both the Herald Sun and TooSerious.net analysing the price movement data of all players to rise by at least $200,000, and 2019 is the first year that has bucked the trend.

At first glance, I thought this uncharacteristic year may have been due to some clear outliers such as Adelaide’s Riley O’Brien and Carlton’s Sam Walsh, who started the season priced at

$136,800 and $207,300 respectively, but smashed all expectations for players priced so highly by taking just five games each to reach a price increase of $200,000.

Or on the other end of the spectrum, Brisbane’s Noah Answerth, who started with a low price of $117,300, was a real slow burner, taking a whopping 14 games to rise $200,00-plus.

Watch every match of every round of the 2020 Toyota AFL Premiership Season LIVE & On-Demand with KAYO. New to Kayo? Get your 14-day free trial & start streaming instantly >

Carlton’s Sam Walsh was a very successful rookie selection for SuperCoach players in 2019.

No.1 draft pick Matt Rowell starts 2020 at a similar price to Walsh last year. Picture: Jerad Williams

As it turned out, even removing these standout players from the data, the outcomes were still very balanced.

We all understand how it is easier for the lower-priced players to increase in value, because they do not need to score as well to achieve the same price gains as a more

expensive player.

For instance, Gold Coast’s Connor Budarick ($106,900) could rise $200,000 in seven games by scoring 80 each week, whereas Budarick’s teammate at Gold Coast, Matt Rowell ($207,300) would need to score 100 every week to achieve the same price increase in the same seven games.

However, last year’s rookie performances reinforced the No.1 golden rule, that the most important factors impacting price rises are firstly that they are playing and then also scoring well.

No matter what the starting price, if they are both playing games and scoring well, their price will rise exponentially.

There were 21 players last year who rose in price by at least $200,000. Of those, 11 started the season priced less than $130,000 and 10 were above, including non-rookie priced players such as St Kilda’s Rowan Marshall, and GWS star Toby Greene.

Looking at just these 21 players, it took them an average of 7.1 games to increase in value by $150,000, 9.4 games to increase by $200,000, and 12.1 games to hit their peak value. As stated earlier, comparing the lower-priced players to the higher-priced players did not provide any real benefit as they were generally all very similar.

Kangaroo Aiden Bonar (right) is another $200,000-plus cheapie.

It could be argued that this was an atypical year, and in 2020 we should stick with the tried and tested strategy of picking cheaper players if available. However, it seems we may not have much of a choice.

I imagine we will need to see which rookies are named for Round 1 and slot them into our teams as best we can. As always, go for the rookies with strong job security and who have the best chance to score well.

Players such as Sam Walsh showed us last year that even the rookies priced over $200,000 can be viable options. However if you end up with a choice, it does still make sense to opt for the cheaper option.

Here are some cheaper rookies to keep an eye on if they are selected:

Connor Budarick (Gold Coast) $106,900 MID/FWD

Has been playing off the half-back line in pre-season and has impressed with an average of 56 SuperCoach points from 65 per cent time on ground. You will be unlikely to find many cheaper than this playing Round 1, so lock him in if named.

Gold Coast youngster Connor Budarick.

Will Gould (Sydney) $117,300 DEF

A big-bodied defender for his age, and already has a lot of senior experience in the SANFL. Only played the first Marsh Series game, where he scored 67 SuperCoach points, but will hopefully still be in the frame for Round 1.

Mitch Hibberd (Essendon) $114,400 MID

Was not on an AFL list last season and played in the VFL where he starred as a permanent midfielder. Could carry that form over to the AFL if given the chance. Suffered a pre-season injury setback but on this watchlist due to his budget price and potential.

Deven Robertson (Brisbane Lions) $117,300 MID

Elite ball winner at junior level and has backed that up with a score of 62 points with 11 disposals from just 63 per cent game time in his only Marsh Series appearance. Has put himself in the discussion for a Round 1 debut.

MORE SUPERCOACH ADVICE:

KFC SuperCoach Rookie Bible: Every potential cash cow for season 2020

Eight bold KFC SuperCoach predictions for the 2020 season

Tim Michell reveals his KFC SuperCoach team for 2020, including seven mid-pricers

KFC SuperCoach: Expert verdict on best bargain picks for 17-round season

Marlion Pickett (Richmond) $123,900 MID

We are lucky he didn’t debut until the finals last year, resulting in him starting at a cheap price this year. After playing so well in the Grand Final and then backing up by playing big minutes in both Marsh Series’ games, he is as close to a lock as you’ll get for rookies this year.

Anthony Hack is a contributor at SuperCoach forum TooSerious.net and can be found on Twitter @ant_hak

Originally published as KFC SuperCoach analysis: Will higher-priced rookies generate the cash we need?