KFC SuperCoach 2021 fixture analysis: How byes, schedule can give your team an edge

Thinking of starting without Jack Macrae or Max Gawn in KFC SuperCoach? Here’s why that could be a terrible move. FIXTURE ANALYSIS

The byes are back (cue creepy music).

In 2020 the bye rounds, like everything else, were flipped on their head when the original fixture was thrown in the bin due to COVID-19.

KFC SuperCoach players still had bye rounds to contend with, but they appeared with such short notice planning for them was almost impossible.

This year — fingers crossed — we have half a season to prepare for one of the most important periods of the SuperCoach season. And to study the full 2021 AFL fixture for other ways to gain a serious KFC SuperCoach edge.

Given the possibility of more scheduling changes, it’s best to not select an entire squad based on the fixture. But paying attention to it can give you a jump on your KFC SuperCoach rivals.

Experts rated Essendon, Hawthorn, North Melbourne and Sydney’s fixtures as the easiest in the competition, while Richmond and St Kilda face the toughest draw. But digging a bit deeper reveals a lot more KFC SuperCoach gold.

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THE PHANTOM: BEST PREMIUM PICKS IN EVERY POSITION

Make your KFC SuperCoach life easier by starting with Swans gun Jake Lloyd.

FAST STARTERS

The first six rounds are a crucial time in KFC SuperCoach.

That’s enough time for rookies and bargain selections to make enough money to start cashing them in and improving our team by adding extra premiums — who hopefully haven’t gone up in value too much themselves in that time.

So it pays to take a close look at the fixture and players’ scoring history against each opponent — available in SuperCoach Plus — to see who could get off to a flyer, pumping out some big KFC SuperCoach numbers to rocket up in value. You want these guys in your team, not jumping out of reach.

If you’re contemplating starting without Max Gawn and hoping he becomes more affordable, you might want to reconsider that plan. The Demons’ first six games are against Fremantle, St Kilda, GWS Giants, Geelong, Hawthorn and Richmond — so Gawn’s ruck opponents will be Sean Darcy, Paddy Ryder/Rowan Marshall, Braydon Preuss, Rhys Stanley, Jon Ceglar and Toby Nankervis. That could be a platform for some mega Max scoring.

Brodie Grundy’s early draw — Western Bulldogs, Carlton, Brisbane, GWS, West Coast and Essendon — is almost as inviting. He will be a leading captaincy option in Round 1 after scoring 179 against Tim English last year.

Jack Macrae’s eyes would have also lit up when the fixture was released. He faces his five favourite opponents in the first eight rounds — North Melbourne (career average 110, Round 3), Brisbane (134, R4), Gold Coast (136, R5), Richmond (121, R7) and Carlton (118, R8).

In contrast, teammate Josh Dunkley has a career average above 100 against just two of the Dogs’ first six opponents. His past two scores against Round 1 rival Collingwood are 67 and 73.

Patrick Dangerfield (career average of 127 v Round 1 opponent Adelaide), Patrick Cripps, Clayton Oliver, Zach Merrett and Tom Mitchell should all get off to strong starts if history is a guide, while Ben Cunnington (bargain alert!) scored 119 and 132 in his most recent games against North Melbourne’s first two opponents, Port Adelaide and Gold Coast.

But put a red flag next to Giant Josh Kelly. Historically his two toughest opponents are the Bulldogs (career average 82) who he faces in Round 6, and Fremantle (83, R2) while he also has a career average under 90 against Sydney (R5) and Adelaide (R7).

Jack Macrae could fly out of the blocks.

THE BYES

Round 12: Gold Coast, North Melbourne, Port Adelaide, Hawthorn, Geelong, GWS Giants

Round 13: Brisbane Lions, Carlton, Western Bulldogs, Essendon, Richmond, West Coast

Round 14: Adelaide, Collingwood, St Kilda, Sydney, Fremantle, Melbourne

Bye rules: Best 18 scoring, three trades per round.

The most obvious tip is to not pick too many players from teams that have the bye in the same round — especially if they play in the same position. This only applies to your keepers since rookies and mid-pricers can be traded out by the time the byes come around, or during the bye rounds (see below).

Top midfielders Lachie Neale, Patrick Cripps, Zach Merrett and all the Bulldogs onballers will me missing in Round 13, but the next week is the one to be scared of.

If you’ve going with the Max Gawn-Brodie Grundy ruck line-up and no playing emergency you’re down to just 20 available on-field slots in Round 14 to get at least 18 scores. Add popular premiums Jake Lloyd, Rory Laird and Rowan Marshall and you’re in trouble, and that’s not considering players like Isaac Heeney, Jack Steele or Nat Fyfe.

If you’re playing for leagues a valid strategy is to effectively “tank” in one of the bye rounds by fielding a severely depleted line-up and having much stronger teams for the other two weeks. But if overall rankings is your goal, it’s something to keep in mind because the points gained in the stronger bye weeks are limited by best 18 scoring.

Note: SuperCoach Plus users can hit “show byes” to see how many players you have available each week.

ADVANCED BYE STRATEGY

If you play it smart you can ensure you have 18 players available each bye round to deliver the highest possible score, and improve your squad for the run home at the same time.

This is achieved by trading out cash cows leading into their bye and bringing in premium stars who have had their bye already.

So prime targets to trade in for Round 13 are stars from Geelong (Tom Stewart, Mitch Duncan, Sam Menegola) and GWS (Josh Kelly, Nick Haynes, Lachie Whitfield) while cashing in a Brisbane rookie like Nakia Cockatoo or a Bombers cheapie like Archie Perkins (in an ideal world there will be a rookie from a Round 12 bye team on the bubble to swap them to).

In Round 14 we’ll all be trading out James Rowe and our Sydney and Fremantle rookies and aiming to pick up Bulldogs, Lions and Eagles guns.

It doesn’t always work out that way, but knowing the plan can help us make those 50-50 selection calls now.

If you’re tossing up between starting Tom Stewart and Brayden Maynard in defence, it makes sense to start with Maynard because Stewart fits much better into a bye trade plan.

If you’re hoping to have a “finished” team with 22 premos on field at the end of the bye rounds, you’ll need to start with Round 14 premiums if you want them in your final side.

Jake Lloyd might not maintain his huge starting price but trading him in any time before Round 14 will be awkward since you know he will miss a game. Much easier to just pick him from the start.

Of course, plenty of other factors will influence our trade decisions, but keeping one eye on how many top-scorers you have available for each of the bye rounds as you go will put you in a stronger position when they roll around.

KFC SuperCoach nemesis Matt De Boer.

TAGGER ALERT

The tagger is the nemesis of the KFC SuperCoach player, and Matt de Boer is public enemy No.1. The Giants stopper has a history of clamping down on the biggest stars in the game and causing nightmares for SuperCoach players, especially if you have nominated them as captain that week.

In 2021 the Giants play each of Carlton, Essendon, Melbourne, Richmond and Sydney twice — alarm bells for the likes of Patrick Cripps, Zach Merrett and Clayton Oliver.

De Boer only encounters Lion Lachie Neale once, in Round 11, but it’s not all good news. In Round 17 last year Sydney’s Ryan Clarke held Neale to just 55 points — a season-low. You can expect he’ll get the job again when the two teams meet in Round 1.

De Boer’s early opponents are St Kilda (Jack Steele), Fremantle (Nat Fyfe) and Melbourne (Oliver). He has a date with the Bulldogs (Marcus Bontempelli) in Round 6.

Jeremy Cameron at Geelong training. Picture: Michael Klein

NEW CLOKE?

Key forwards’ scores are impacted by the quality of their opposition more than any other position, and this year there are four very cheap spearheads who could make a quick cash grab with a couple of big scores in the early rounds.

This move famously helped John Bruyn win the $50,000 grand prize in 2013 when he started with Travis Cloke on the back of an inconsistent 2012 season (average 83) and a good early draw. Cloke exploded out the blocks, averaging 133 over the first six rounds and jumped in value by about $150,000. Bruyn then traded him out — exactly as other coaches were paying top dollar for him — and never looked back.

Could one of these key forwards follow a similar path in 2021?

Joe Daniher (Bris) $233,300 FWD: First six games against Sydney, Geelong, Collingwood, Western Bulldogs, Essendon, Carlton

Ben Brown (Melb) $260,300 FWD: Fremantle, St Kilda, GWS Giants, Geelong, Hawthorn, Richmond

Jeremy Cameron (Geel) $399,100 FWD: Adelaide, Brisbane Lions, Hawthorn, Melbourne, North Melbourne, West Coast

Lance Franklin (Syd) $312,000 FWD: Brisbane, Adelaide, Richmond, Essendon, GWS Giants, Gold Coast

Of that group Cameron’s fixture jumps out, with few pundits expecting the Crows, Hawks or Kangaroos to challenge for finals and three of those games — against the Lions, Roos and Eagles — at the Cats’ GMHBA Stadium fortress.

Originally published as KFC SuperCoach 2021 fixture analysis: How byes, schedule can give your team an edge