Key Round 8 KFC SuperCoach trade targets and how to get Bailey Smith
KFC SuperCoaches have loaded their banks in recent weeks and now it’s time to go shopping. Western Bulldogs young gun Bailey Smith is top of many wishlists, but there’s a host of other players you should be considering.
Supercoach
Don't miss out on the headlines from Supercoach. Followed categories will be added to My News.
It’s time to go shopping KFC SuperCoaches — the year’s biggest bargain is here.
After scoring 77 points on Friday night against the Bombers, second-year Bulldogs midfielder Bailey Smith is available for $409k ahead of Round 8 with a break even of 47.
That’s serious value.
The 19-year-old had 20 disposals and seven clearances, but an efficiency of 55 per cent limited his scoring in Round 7.
Before that, ignoring his score of three when he was concussed against North Melbourne, the hard-running star posted scores of 106, 126, 101, 93 and 119.
Taking out that three-point score from Round 5, Smith is averaging 104 points per game in 2020.
Scroll down to see five ways to Smith into your side this week — and 10 more tempting trade targets.
Kayo is your ticket to the 2020 Toyota AFL Premiership Season. Watch every match of every round Live & On-Demand. New to Kayo? Get your 14-day free trial & start streaming instantly >
Round 7 #supercoach Price Projection* - Bailey Smith
— Brice Mitchell (@bricemitchell) July 17, 2020
Start Price $416k
2019Av 77 (22g)
R7Price $436k
2020Scores 106/126/101/93/3/119
R7BE 132
R7Score 82
R7:$436k->$413k ($-23k) NewBE 41
ProjScore 105
R8:$413k->$442k ($29k) NewBE 73
R9:$442k->$456k ($14k) NewBE 60
*approx https://t.co/8SPvWrTGFY
You just can’t pass him up at the price this week.
And that means all trade options should be on the table.
Is he the perfect replacement for namesake, and struggling Bomber, Devon Smith? Or is trading out on an on-field rookie a no-brainer?
Here are our top five trade options:
Devon Smith (Ess) — $382,700
For $335k, the selection hasn’t been a failure. But with an average of 81 and four consecutive scores of 71 or less, Smith has been underwhelming. And his performance against the Bulldogs on Friday was the most disappointing of the lot. When the game was in the balance, the former Giant had little impact. A handful of late disposals and a goal saved him from a complete KFC SuperCoach disaster, though. Plenty of coaches will have bigger issues but he looks nothing like the top-six score many thought he would be.
Curtis Taylor (NM) — $287,900/Connor Budarick (GC) — $223,000
This is the obvious move. Cash cows Budarick and Taylor have done their job in our KFC SuperCoach teams but their cash generation has largely stalled. After scoring 41 playing on dangerous Swan Tom Papley, Budarick’s price fell for the second consecutive week. But, he’s unlikely to be dropped from anytime soon. Taylor impressed with 76 points on Saturday night and isn’t the obvious rookie to trade out but if his higher price helps you get to Smith then don’t hesitate.
Brett Bewley (Freo) — $373,100
If you grabbed Bewley as a mid-priced cash cow, this will be the week to cash in. With a break even of 59 ahead of Round 8, the likelihood is he will max out in price at about $380,000. A $30,000 jump from Bewley to Smith is a small price to pay and should be one of the easier moves you make. Trade Rozee before Bewley if you’re sitting on both — at least the Freo wingman provides some consistency with three scores of 81 or more between rounds 3-6.
Connor Rozee (Port Adel) — $334,300
Rozee’s average has nosedived from 135 after two rounds to 70.6 after posting an average of 45 in the past five rounds. That’s less than KFC SuperCoaches are getting from players such as Budarick and Taylor. He’s spending far too much time forward to be a factor in KFC SuperCoach and those who traded him in at more than $471,600 after Round 2 have seen his value slump by about $140k. That’s disastrous in a year where cash generation could not be more important. The gamble paid off for two rounds if you started him but Rozee to Smith should be one of the easier trades you make this year. One is burning cash and the other is at the bottom of his price cycle.
Jon Ceglar (Hawthorn) — $415,700
This experiment started promisingly, much like Rozee, but just hasn’t worked out. While other ruckmen have dominated shorter quarters, Ceglar has a three-round average of 60.7 and will be under $400,000 after his next game due to a break even of 147. He didn’t play against Melbourne on Sunday due to a broken toe. Unless you’re using him to cover a possible injury or rest for Max Gawn, Brodie Grundy or another ruckman, then cash in Ceglar this week in what will be effectively a straight swap to Smith.
MORE KFC SUPERCOACH:
KFC SuperCoach Round 7 rage trades: Marc Pittonet, Connor Rozee and Devon Smith on chopping block
KFC SuperCoach 2020: The Phantom’s Round 7 review and trade advice
THE OTHER TARGETS
Smith is not the only upgrade option to consider this week.
Here are 10 other players to target with your KFC SuperCoach war chest of cash.
Stephen Coniglio (GWS)
$501,500, MID
With scores of 103 and 97 in the past two weeks, the Giants skipper had bounced back from the 49-point performance – when he played as a permanent forward – against the Magpies in Round 4. But he still spent plenty of time forward, despite the improved scores. On Saturday against the Lions, however, it was a different story. In a KFC SuperCoach sense, the real Stephen Coniglio was back. The 26-year-old finished with game-highs in contested possessions (15) and clearances (9), to go with a season-high 27 disposals and 141 points. His price will spike but $500k is still terrific buying.
Jack Macrae (WB)
$581,500, MID
Macrae isn’t Coniglio-cheap but given he started the year at $669k, he’s still super value ahead of Round 8. Especially after two standout performances. The Bulldogs midfielder followed-up his 138-point display in Round 6 with 27 disposals, 11 contested possessions and 122 points against the Bombers. Macrae’s score was even more impressive given his quiet start which saw him spend 10 minutes of the opening term on the bench. Sure they are a different side but Macrae has posted scores of 139 and 189 in his past two against the Suns, the Bulldogs’ Round 8 opponent.
Hugh Greenwood (GC)
$557,800, FWD-MID
A quiet 61-point score put a halt to Greenwood’s rise in Round 4 but after a career-high 144 against the Swans, his third consecutive score of 126 or more, the contested-ball beast’s price is about to skyrocket. Given the immense KFC SuperCoach scoring power of the former Crow, who leads the competition tackles, however, he’s still one to consider this week. But don’t wait too much longer to pounce as Greenwood, who had game-highs in contested possessions (18), clearances (9) and tackles (12) in the win over Sydney, faces another low breakeven in Round 8.
Lachie Whitfield (GWS)
$470,900, FWD-MID
Whitfield has scored 85-111 in every game bar his Round 3 total of eight against Western Bulldogs, when he was concussed. His returns since then have been 85, 93, 111 and 102 and he bottomed out at $441k two rounds ago. You’ll have to pay $30k more than that to get him this week, but he’s worth it. This is a player many coaches paid more than $600,000 for at the start of the year. If you don’t get Whitfield in Round 8, you’ll be paying more than $500,000 and might have to look elsewhere to finish your forward line.
Andrew Gaff (WC)
$517,600, MID
Back in Western Australia for an extended period, Gaff shapes as a great buy if he falls close to $500k. He didn’t post less than 112 in the opening month of the campaign but after scores of 83, 67 and 90 his value is falling. Gaff has averaged 110 at Optus Stadium from 24 games since the start of 2018.
Patrick Cripps (Carl)
$520,200, MID
Cripps is available to more than $110,000 than his starting price and likely close to $500k if you’re prepared to wait until Round 9. Three of the Carlton co-captain’s past four scores have been 85 or less which have caused his price to fall from $626,800 at Round 4. Four of his seven scores are still 112 or higher and Cripps is a proven KFC SuperCoach beast. Bringing him in against a depleted North Melbourne midfield for Round 8 could be a masterstroke.
Luke Ryan (Freo)
$503,100, DEF
Three consecutive hundreds — and a return to WA — have put Ryan firmly on the radar for those KFC SuperCoaches keen to complete their defences. At about $506k he will be considerably cheaper than Jake Lloyd yet arguably has a greater ceiling. Ryan already has two scores of more than 120 points and takes kick-ins for a Fremantle defence which has plenty of opportunity to rack up disposals most weeks.
Adam Treloar (Coll)
$628,700, MID
The Magpies ball magnet has put KFC SuperCoaches on notice with a scintillating return after injury delayed his start to 2020. Treloar has gone 119, 122 and 158 and amassed huge disposal numbers in the past three rounds. Any hope of getting him for less than $600,000 soon was dashed when he had a game-high 34 disposals and 11 clearances against Geelong.
Christian Petracca (Melb)
$543,700, FWD
Hard to see Petracca finishing outside the top-six forwards after five hundreds and a score of 89 in six games. The Demons star is a perfect upgrade target for 80 per cent of teams who don’t have him as Melbourne has already had its ‘bye’ — the postponed Round 3 match against Essendon. Petracca’s 160 against Hawthorn will ensure his price isn’t lower than this for some time to come. If you have the cash spare, it’s worth considering him instead of Bailey Smith — especially if the Dogs have a bye soon.
Max Gawn (Melb)
$776,700, RUC
So much for those plans to upgrade Marc Pittonet to Gawn! The gap between the two big men is more than $370k ahead Round 8 after the Demons skipper monstered Hawthorn with 185 points and Pittonet struggled against Port Adelaide. Gawn is a captaincy option every week, won’t have a bye and his lowest score is 141 since footy’s resumption. He’s on track to become the second player in the game’s history to be $800k. Whether you can afford that could depend on whether you went for a double downgrade in Round 7.
THE ONES TO MONITOR
Shannon Hurn (WC) — $424,300, DEF BE: 120
Hurn returned to close to his best back at Optus Stadium, posting 93 KFC SuperCoach points — only 14 points less than he managed in the previous two weeks combined. As a result he’ll be available for close to $400k in Round 9 and hard to resist playing so many games at home.
Tom Stewart (Geel) — $498,000, DEF BE: 189
Stewart will play his first game since a broken collarbone this round against Fremantle. The ever-reliable Cat only scored 18 that day and crashed to $498,000. With a break even of 189 his lowest price will likely come in Round 10 or 11. If you’ve got any issues in your defence or still need a D6 at that point, he’ll be perfect.
Sam Mayes (Port) — $213,500, MID BE: -27
Mayes made his Port Adelaide debut against Carlton and made the most of a long-awaited opportunity, scoring 115 KFC SuperCoach points. He knows the Gabba well after playing 101 games for Brisbane Lions and his job security looks reasonably after an injury to Ryan Burton. If you need a short-team cash injection, consider Mayes at $213k.
CHOPPING BLOCK
Dan Butler $415,400 FWD BE: 155 Avg: 87.6
Chad Wingard $438,200 FWD-MID BE: 153 Avg: 90.4
Jon Ceglar $415,700 RUC-FWD BE: 151 Avg: 79
Joel Selwood $505,800 MID BE: 148 Avg: 94.9
Marc Pittonet $403,900 RUC BE: 133 Avg: 92.5
Connor Rozee $334,300 FWD BE: 111 Avg: 70.6
Max King $284,200 FWD BE: 53 Avg: 59.3
Brandon Starcevich $257,700 DEF-MID BE: 71 Avg: 57.1
Curtis Taylor $287,900 FWD BE: 80 Avg: 64.1
Connor Budarick $233,000 FWD-MID BE: 39 Avg: 50.7
READ THE FULL ‘RAGE TRADES’ COLUMN HERE
KEY BREAK EVENS
Premiums ($500,000 or more)
James Sicily $520,000 DEFAvg: 104.7 BE: 28 Projected price rise: +$27,500
Tim English $600,100 RUC Avg: 118.6 BE: 48 Projected price rise: +$32,100
Christian Petracca $543,700 FWD Avg: 115.8 BE: 59 Projected price rise: +$27,900
Tim Kelly $511,000 MID Avg: 96.6 BE: 59 Projected price rise: +$16,900
Stephen Coniglio $501,500 MID Avg: 100.3 BE: 60 Projected price rise: +$6600
Hugh Greenwood $557,800 FWD-MID Avg: 112.9 BE: 62 Projected price rise: +$25,500
Luke Ryan $503,100 DEF Avg: 94.3 BE: 69 Projected price rise: +$8000
Patrick Dangerfield $598,300 MID Avg: 110.9 BE: 83 Projected price rise: +$8500
Jack Macrae $581,500 MID Avg: 110.1 BE: 86 Projected price rise: +$18,800
Adam Treloar $628,700 MID Avg: 133 BE: 94 Projected price rise: +$14,400
Mid-pricers ($250,000-$500,000)
Jackson Nelson $334,000 DEF BE: -18 Avg: 74.6 Projected price rise: +$41,500
Marlion Pickett $256,500 MID BE: -17 Avg: 70 Projected price rise: +$38,400
Isaac Quaynor $289,100 DEF BE: 3 Avg: 84.5 Projected price rise: +$27,200
Shaun Higgins $491,100 MID BE: 20 Avg: 102.7 Projected price rise: +$40,400
Jack Steven $313,600 FWD-MID BE: 24 Avg: 54.5 Projected price rise: +$14,100
Tom Doedee $433,000 DEF BE: 28 Avg: 90.8 Projected price rise: +$32,600
Stephen Hill $266,400 DEF-FWD BE: 29 Avg: 64.3 Projected price rise: +$15,300
John Noble $283,700 DEF BE: 35 Avg: 62.6 Projected price rise: +$11,700
Bailey Smith $409,100 FWD-MID BE: 47 Avg: 89.3 Projected price rise: +$15,400
Jack Viney $493,100 MID BE: 50 Avg: 111 Projected price rise: +$23,000
Rookies (Less than $250,000)
Izak Rankine $195,900 FWD BE: -97 Avg: 106.5 Projected price rise: +$90,300
Sam Simpson $185,700 MID BE: -80 Avg: 95 Projected price rise: +$60,600
Will Day $193,700 DEF BE: -39 Avg: 77 Projected price rise: +$51,400
Derek Eggmolesse-Smith $246,900 DEF BE: -37 Avg: 92 Projected price rise: +$48,500
Andrew McPherson $158,200 DEF BE: -34 Avg: 64 Projected price rise: +$43,500
Sam Mayes $213,500 MID BE: -27 Avg: 115 Projected price rise: +$44,600
Ben McKay $149,200 DEF BE: -24 Avg: 86 Projected price rise: +$32,300
Darren Minchington $117,300 FWD BE: -14 Avg: 62 Projected price rise: +$31,000
Mitchell Hibberd $176,200 MID BE: -13 Avg: 52.3 Projected price rise: +$27,200
Harley Bennell $193,300 MID BE: -9 Avg: 61 Projected price rise: +$29,400
KEY OWNERSHIP CHANGES*
Izak Rankine +2.2%
Bailey Smith +2.1%
Max Gawn +1.9%
Christian Petracca +1.3%
Sam Simpson +1.3%
Ben McKay +1.1%
Hugh Greenwood +0.9%
Sam Mayes +0.9%
Derek Eggmolesse-Smith +0.7%
Tim English +0.7%
Will Day +0.7%
Adam Treloar +0.7%
Marc Pittonet -3.2%
Max King -1.8%
Brandon Starcevich -1.7%
Jarrod Brander -1.3%
Connor Budarick -1.2%
Curtis Taylor -1.0%
Tom Green -1.0%
Devon Smith -0.9%
Tyler Brown -0.8%
Justin McInerney -0.7%
Connor Rozee -0.6%
Nat Fyfe -0.6%
*Ownership changes current as of 11am Monday.
MORE AFL NEWS:
AFL injury ladder reveals clubs hardest hit with run of 33 games in 20 days set to stretch lists
Mick Malthouse: Why Alistair Clarkson would know big changes are needed at Hawthorn
ðŸŽ™ï¸ NEW SuperCoaches Box Podcast 🎧
— SuperCoach AFL (@Supercoach) July 14, 2020
Double downgrade week?
How do we split the 🔑 rookies?
Fallen premos - gold or traps? 👀
LISTEN #SuperCoach | https://t.co/v9YanlZC3z
ðŸŽ™ï¸ @al_superfooty, @tim_michell, @danbatten_ & @danbegala pic.twitter.com/1P2834xD36
Any takers?
— The Phantom (@ThePhantomSC) July 9, 2020
Our old mate Jack Billings came up in conversation during this week's podcast, thanks to @mattturner1986. He's flying, too.
FULL SHOW: https://t.co/npdxhASTlE pic.twitter.com/NLgIligjQ6
Originally published as Key Round 8 KFC SuperCoach trade targets and how to get Bailey Smith