Experts Dan Batten, Al Paton, The Phantom and Tim Michell rate KFC SuperCoach’s top rookie picks ahead of Round 6
Need to make some cash in KFC SuperCoach this week? Here are the top five rookies to consider. Plus our experts give their verdict on which cheapies to hold and sell ahead of Round 6
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KFC SuperCoaches face enough difficulty upgrading to a full premium team in a shortened season and the rookie situation is making it even tougher.
Rookies who we hoped would continue to make us cash have stalled, with the likes of Magpie Tyler Brown (61 BE) and Gold Coast’s Connor Budarick (61 BE) having ominous break evens to overcome to just maintain their price — and they are only sitting at the $230,000 mark.
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Then there’s the group of rookies yet to bear fruit who have been axed or dropped in recent weeks and are occupying bench spots, headlined by Grand Final hero Marlion Pickett and Harley Bennell.
Fortunately, both of those players could earn a recall this week, Pickett as a result of injury and Bennell due to a lack of spark for the Demons.
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These issues have been compounded by many of the bubble boys being at an inflated price of over $150,000 — like Dockers duo Stephen Hill and Caleb Serong.
It means we are struggling to make even $100,000 off rookie downgrades.
This week at least there is a standout rookie at base price, mature age Tiger Jake Aarts, and there are several options on the horizon.
The most notable of those is 2018’s No.3 selection Izak Rankine ($123,900, FWD) who is set to make his long awaited debut this weekend.
Young Swans duo Dylan Stephens, the fifth pick in the 2019 draft, and noted tackler and contested ball winner Chad Warner will also get their first crack at AFL level this weekend.
DAN BATTENS ROOKIE RATINGS
1. Jake Aarts
Aarts looked extremely comfortable at AFL level. The 25-year-old gathered 15 disposals, booted a goal and finished with 76 KFC SuperCoach points against Melbourne. Mature-age cash cows are generally more consistent than young, raw types and he looks capable of winning enough of the footy for a small forward. Richmond’s injury crisis bodes well for his job security and should see his spot locked in even if his form wanes.
2. Izak Rankine
It is certainly a risk to jump on a week early given his well documented injury history but Izak Rankine is a rare talent. He will be itching to get out there after countless setbacks and you’d suggest almost all KFC SuperCoaches will be flocking to get him in next week. Why not get him a week early and potentially capitalise on a strong rookie score?
3. Stephen Hill
This goes against what I was saying earlier about bringing in expensive rookies, but hear me out. In a season where full premium is close to impossible, finding cheap alternatives who can score well is integral. Hill hasn’t shown his full potential just yet but has shown glimpses of his form from previous years with two fast starts. As he eases into it, he looms as a player who can reach that 75-80 average from here on and be a promising F6-D6 option for our sides.
4. Harrison Jones
Jones played plenty of midfield minutes in his debut attending 46 per cent of centre bounces. However, his job security is somewhat questionable despite a solid first game, finishing with 11 touches (at 100 per cent efficiency), four tackles and 54 points. Aarts is the better bubble boy this week.
5. Harley Bennell
One for the risk takers. We know 2020 is a crazy year and that has translated to KFC SuperCoach, and as crazy as it sounds bringing in Harley Bennell (if picked) it could pay off. The Demons lacked firepower forward of centre and Bennell brings that in spades, so he is certainly a chance of being recalled. Coach Simon Goodwin flagged he will be in and out of the Melbourne side due to his injury history but if he gets enough game time, he will score well. Represents extreme value but is certainly down the pecking order.
FULL EXPERT ROOKIE RATINGS
Jake Aarts $123,900 FWD Avg: 76 BE: -27
DB: BUY. Looked comfortable at the level and his job security is rock solid with Richmond’s spate of injuries.
TM: BUY — but only if you need to downgrade this week. His job security looks strong with so many injuries at Richmond and Bachar Houli and Shane Edwards staying in Victoria. But it seems certain we’re going to have a few rookies on the bubble each week so I’m not desperate.
AP: BUY. Really liked his game against the Dees, getting up the ground to get involved and not getting stuck in a forward pocket.
Phantom: BUY. The mature-age rookie was impressive on debut against the Demons and his role won’t be decreasing anytime soon given the Tigers’ injuries. The top downgrade option this week.
Harrison Jones $123,900 MID Avg: 54 BE: -5
DB: PASS. His midfield time was encouraging but he could be out of that Hawks’ side any week now.
TM: PASS. Has been on the outer in past years at Hawthorn despite big numbers in the VFL. Don’t trust his job security enough to take the plunge.
AP: BUY. Couldn’t reproduce his elite VFL numbers in his AFL debut but probably the best option if you need a cheap midfielder.
Phantom: BUY. He’s been recording big VFL numbers for a while now and should only improve on his 11 disposals and 54 points from here. An option if you need it.
Laitham Vandermeer $225,000 FWD-MID Avg: 63.3 BE: -27
DB: PASS. If you kept the faith with him after buying him at rookie price, kudos. But it’s difficult to see him rising enough to justify nabbing him at this inflated price.
TM: PASS. Assuming it’s an obvious hold if you already have him. I’m not sure why you’d pay $102,000 more than you could for Jake Aarts.
AP: PASS. If you’re one of the 8000 coaches who already have the young Bulldog, well done. The rest of us shouldn’t be reacting to one score of 99 after three under 60. Aarts is $100k cheaper.
Phantom: PASS. The young Bulldog has the equal-lowest breakeven in the competition after his 99-point score in Round 5 but there’s far more value in Aarts and Jones.
Stephen Hill $214,000 DEF-FWD Avg: 64 BE: -4
DB: BUY. In a year where we will struggle to get to full premium, Hill shapes as an option who can provide on-field scoring and cash flow, despite underwhelming returns to date.
TM: PASS.I passed last round and would do so again. I hope he gets a good run at it this year but find it hard to trust a player with his injury history in KFC SuperCoach.
AP: BUY. I was big on Hill last week and he’s only $23k more this week. Hopefully his scores improve but all the positives still apply, assuming his body stays in one piece.
Phantom: BUY. You’ve only missed one price rise – a small one of $23k – and if his body stays sound, the classy left-footer should start to increase his output. Especially after quarter-time.
Mitch Hibberd $114,400 Avg: 39 BE: 7
DB: PASS. Went at 90 per cent efficiency and still only managed 39 points and the returning Zach Merrett could pinch his spot.
TM: PASS. I thought he did a few nice things against Collingwood but his ceiling and job security are both question marks.
AP: PASS. Price is appealing and Jake Stringer’s injury might save his spot in the team, but in conditions that should have suited him on Friday night he really battled to get into it.
Phantom: PASS. As we know, a player’s first price rise in KFC SuperCoach this year — after one game — isn’t a big one. So I’d wait and have another look at the former North Melbourne defender-turned-midfielder.
Caleb Serong $200,000 MID Avg: 62 BE: -8
DB: PASS. I jumped on last week and I’ll really regret it should Nat Fyfe takes his place this week. Has gotten solid midfield minutes but spent under 60 per cent time on ground in Round 5.
TM: PASS. It had to be last week if you were going to take a chance on Serong, especially with Fremantle flagging Nat Fyfe could return after only a week on the sidelines with a hamstring issue.
AP: PASS. If you didn’t get him last week you shouldn’t be doing it now when he’s over $200k and Fyfe could be back.
Phantom: PASS. Again, you haven’t missed out on too much money here but I’m concerned about what Nat Fyfe’s return will do to his role.
HOLD OR SELL?
Connor Budarick $233,500 FWD-MID Avg: 52.2 BE: 61
DB: SELL. Looked to be a slow burn until his 80-point outing in Round 3 which earned him a Rising Star nomination. In his past two games he has won just 13 touches, finishing with five disposals and 28 points down at the Cattery. The Suns youngster has a break even of 61 entering Round 5 which he has passed twice in his first five games.
TM: HOLD. Playing rookies are gold at the moment, especially those with DPP status. Thankfully Budarick’s score of 28 at Geelong was his first score below 44. It came on a bad week for many coaches forced to field him, but I’m inclined to stick with him as long as he’s in the team.
AP: SELL. Has served his purpose and appreciated from $106k to $233. Will become Jake Aarts for me, freeing up $110k.
Phantom: SELL. With a breakeven of 61, which is nine points higher than his average, Budarick’s time is up. Jake Aarts appeals this week but so does Izak Rankine, who is tipped to debut in Round 6, next week.
Jarrod Brander $235,200 DEF-FWD Avg: 60.3 BE: 13
A minor hip injury kept Jarrod Brander out of the Eagles’ win over Sydney with the club saying he is a chance to return this week. The tall wingman has a low break even of 13 and still has cash to make, but it is unclear when he’ll be back or whether he is an automatic selection when fit.
DB: HOLD. His DPP gives you great flexibility with trades and if he doesn’t return this week, he should soon. Even if he misses, he won’t be leaking cash like many of his rookie friends.
TM: HOLD.Brander missed Round 5 with a hip injury which the Eagles have been coy on the severity of. If there’s an indication he’s going to miss an extended period then trade, but otherwise leave him on your bench and use his DPP to help with trade flexibility.
AP: TRADE. I’m getting more ruthless on these cheap guys. If he’s named you might reconsider but the Eagles winning doesn’t help his cause.
Phantom: HOLD. If he’s named, or even if he’s not, given a breakeven of 13 and handy DEF-FWD status. At least until we know more about the hip injury.
John Noble $266,000 DEF Avg: 62.8 BE: 19
Just when Noble was starting to come into his own he was dropped by Nathan Buckley, sending KFC SuperCoaches for the trade button. But his replacement Travis Varcoe, who Buckley said pre-game would play off halfback, had little impact in the role and was moved into attack in the second half. Could it see Noble return to the side for their clash against Hawthorn on Friday night?
DB: HOLD. Think he is every chance of earning a recall if Buckley swings the axe and his recent form suggests he’s a solid on-field scorer.
TM: HOLD. Collingwood struggled against Essendon and it won’t shock me if he’s back in the team for Round 6. If he’s not, then you can reassess, especially if you don’t have defensive cover.
AP: TRADE. Borderline call and if he’s named this week he might survive, but I have enough cash to turn him into a premium defender.
Phantom: SELL. Upgrade him to Jordan Ridley, if you didn’t do it last week.
Tyler Brown $232,300 MID Avg: 52.2 BE: 61
Brown’s job security looked to be boosted by the suspension to Steele Sidebottom — then his quiet night against the Bombers happened. The slick youngster finished with nine disposals and 29 points, spending a concerning 59 per cent time on ground. If the Magpies wish to make a statement at selection after their disappointing loss, Brown is likely to make way.
DB: TRADE. Set to leak cash — that if he isn’t dumped after being stuck on the bench for most of the second half last week.
TM: HOLD — pending selection. As long as he’s not dropped, I don’t see the sense in tradingBrown. He hasn’t made much money and bench cover could be crucial when teams head into hubs.
AP: HOLD. Right on the edge and wouldn’t blame anyone for trading but as long as he’s getting a game I can’t afford to get rid of him.
Phantom: SELL — Ideally. A break even nine points higher than his average, like Budarick, suggests there’s a chance he loses money this week. But given other issues, we might have to give him another week on the bench.
Brandon Starcevich $295,400 DEF-MID Avg: 63.6 BE: 70
Starcevich looked to be the best of the lot (besides Rowell) but failed to deliver over the weekend — like many of our popular rookies. The young Lion has produced some promising totals this season so his 71 break even isn’t completely out of reach.
DB: HOLD. If Starcevich is in your top-two KFC SuperCoach worries, you are the luckiest team in Australia.
TM: HOLD. Hopefully three scores between 64-99 from rounds 2-4 were a better indication of his scoring potential than Saturday’s 38. Given, the Lions dominated Port Adelaide and opportunities are going to be limited when your opposition only has 35 inside-50s. Fremantle recorded 44 when he scored 99 in Round 2.
AP: HOLD. Had a stinker at the weekend (38) and is suddenly looking at a 70 break-even but although he probably won’t make much more money I can’t see him losing much which means moving him on is low priority.
Phantom: HOLD. There was no coming back from a stat-less first-quarter for Starcevich in Round 5 but he’s one who respond and get to his breakeven of 70 this week.
Marlion Pickett $201,500 MID Avg: 60.3 BE: 30
If you’ve held onto him, you could be in luck with Dion Prestia and Trent Cotchin suffering injury blows in Round 5. Pickett was named as an emergency on Sunday and looms as a likely inclusion ahead of their clash with Sydney.
DB: HOLD. Hasn’t made enough cash to discard and appears set to take the place of either Dion Prestia or Trent Cotchin this weekend.
TM: HOLD.Has to play this week doesn’t he with so many Tigers out? It’ll be a really bad sign if he doesn’t. I’m still more confident fielding Pickett than Brown or Budarick.
AP: HOLD. Could just about be Richmond’s second midfielder this weekend with all the Tigers’ injuries. Pray for another 90 score.
Phantom: HOLD. If you’ve still got him, Richmond’s injury crisis would’ve been music to your ears in a KFC SuperCoach sense. Pickett is a very good chance to come back in this week and play a big role. You might even consider buying in the next few weeks if he finds form.
Curtis Taylor $269,400 FWD Avg: 71.6 BE: 0
A positive rookie surprise is always nice and Taylor provided us with just that with a 100-point effort out of nowhere as his price was looking like dipping. Taylor does enough without hitting scoreboard to produce solid totals, providing tackle pressure and working up the ground to great effect.
DB: HOLD. Break even of 0 this week and he will be shooting over $300,000 soon after raising the bat for a SuperCoach ton on Saturday.
TM: HOLD. What a result at the weekend for Taylor’s owners. Just when it seemed he was reaching his peak price, he pulled out a ton on a weekend where so many other rookies battled. He’ll get to at least $300,000 now.
AP: HOLD! A great lesson in how rookie price changes work. Last week his break-even was creeping up to his average but now it’s back to 0 after a fantastic game. That will give him a few more weeks of money making before we have to move him on.
Phantom: HOLD. The second-year forward’s price will sky rocket over the next two weeks after his 100-point performance against the Hawks. But there’s no guarantee he scores like that again so don’t bother with the trade.
Max King $242,800 FWD Avg: 59.8 BE: 12
King was thought to be the slow-burn key forward rookie but has pipped many of the other popular cash cow options to date. This is due to scores of 77 and 86, which he is capable of posting from time-to-time but don’t expect this every week.
DB: HOLD. Six of the best (disposals, all won contested) got him to 86 points last week which will keep his price ticking over for at least the next fortnight.
TM: HOLD. Well done if you used the loophole to take King’s 86 against Carlton. He’s got Fremantle and Adelaide in the next two weeks and projections have him getting close to $300,000 by Round 8.
AP: HOLD. See above. King looked great against Carlton and he has the Dockers and Crows in the next two weeks. Start him on the field!
Phantom: Like, Taylor, continue to hold after an impressive Round 5 score but don’t go chasing now.
Harley Bennell $123,900 MID Avg: 59 BE: -10
Harley Bennell has had owners in a bind the past fortnight, named when Melbourne’s Round 3 match was postponed and then out the next week when Simon Goodwin dropped a selection bombshell. There is no doubting his scoring potential, but his time-on-ground and injury history is a concern.
DB: HOLD/PASS. Bennell could return to the Melbourne side to add some excitement that they sorely need, but they have flagged he is not a walk up start every week, so he is too risky to bring in.
TM: HOLD/BUY — The Demons have been hammered for their delivery inside-50 this week and Bennell provides silk they so badly need. It’ll be a shock if he doesn’t play this round.
AP: OH, MAN. Surely the Dees bring him in now. They need a spark and they didn’t recruit Bennell for his defensive pressure. If you already have him (like me and 44,000 other coaches) we just have to hold him and hope. I wouldn’t be buying him though given the Dees’ selection strategy.
Phantom: WAIT. Consider pulling the trigger if he’s named, which is a possibility given Melbourne’s skill issues. But it might be better to wait a week after what happened after his last game.
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Originally published as Experts Dan Batten, Al Paton, The Phantom and Tim Michell rate KFC SuperCoach’s top rookie picks ahead of Round 6