Champion Data expert Fantasy Freako explains the science of selecting a KFC SuperCoach captain

Getting your captaincy choice right can make or break your SuperCoach weekend. Champion Data expert Fantasy Freako dives into the numbers behind getting the most out of your double points every week.

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The season-ending leg injury to Tom Mitchell wasn’t only a blow to Hawthorn, but to the fantasy community as a whole.

We were robbed of an automatic 100 points from the 2018 Brownlow medallist most weeks, with his ceiling clearly one of the highest of any player in the competition, scoring 140-plus points in 11 games from 2017-18 in KFC SuperCoach.

If we analyse the most selected captains when Mitchell last played in 2018, he was the most captained player 10 times – three more than Max Gawn and six more than Dustin Martin. The only other player to figure was Nat Fyfe (once).

In terms of output, Mitchell rewarded coaches with a return of 270 points per game after his score was doubled, which was slightly less than Gawn’s 275. Martin provided 248 points per game when he was the top captain choice, while Fyfe had a blinder in his only match, posting 163 points.

Most popular captain choices 2018

Round	Player	Score	Captain (x2)	% selections
1	Tom Mitchell	168	336	19.6%
2	Dustin Martin	154	308	29.5%
3	Tom Mitchell	148	296	34.7%
4	Dustin Martin	141	282	29.4%
5	Dustin Martin	91	182	21%
6	Max Gawn	168	336	25.3%
7	Tom Mitchell	127	254	11.6%
8	Tom Mitchell	72	144	12.3%
9	Max Gawn	121	242	19.9%
10	Nat Fyfe	163	326	16.4%
11	Max Gawn	139	278	32.3%
12	Tom Mitchell	Bye	N/A	21.7%
13	Tom Mitchell	136	272	30.4%
14	Max Gawn	152	304	15.9%
15	Tom Mitchell	181	362	26.7%
16	Max Gawn	152	304	15.9%
17	Dustin Martin	110	220	6.7%
18	Tom Mitchell	192	384	40.6%
19	Max Gawn	130	260	10.8%
20	Max Gawn	112	224	14%
21	Tom Mitchell	102	204	31.7%
22	Tom Mitchell	108	216	23%
23	Tom Mitchell	114	228	23%

With Mitchell sidelined last year, Brodie Grundy was the go-to captain option, and he was the most captained player (12 times), five more than Patrick Cripps. The only other player to be captained more than once was Jack Macrae (twice).

In terms of output, Cripps (276) actually outperformed Grundy (274) marginally, while Macrae (282) eclipsed them both, albeit from fewer games.

Most popular captain choices 2019

Round	Player	Score	Captain (x2)	% selections
1	Nat Fyfe	147	294	13.6%
2	Jack Macrae	127	254	12.2%
3	Patrick Cripps	157	314	21.7%
4	Patrick Cripps	169	338	35.4%
5	Patrick Cripps	110	220	21.7%
6	Patrick Cripps	93	186	29.1%
7	Patrick Cripps	123	246	17.1%
8	Patrick Cripps	120	240	14.3%
9	Brodie Grundy	144	288	12.8%
10	Brodie Grundy	165	330	17.2%
11	Brodie Grundy	124	248	18.2%
12	Patrick Cripps	194	388	28.2%
13	Brodie Grundy	Bye	N/A	17.6%
14	Brodie Grundy	174	348	22%
15	Brodie Grundy	133	266	15.7%
16	Brodie Grundy	145	290	13.4%
17	Brodie Grundy	137	274	17%
18	Max Gawn	132	264	16.6%
19	Brodie Grundy	117	234	24.9%
20	Jack Macrae	155	310	16.4%
21	Brodie Grundy	86	172	16.6%
22	Brodie Grundy	123	246	14.9%
23	Brodie Grundy	157	314	14.9%

These numbers may not paint a complete picture however, as the vice-captain loophole is used extensively from week-to-week.

Most fantasy coaches are creatures of habit and we often stick to what has worked for us in the past.

The above numbers back this up, as the pool of captains is rather low. The genuine fear of missing out makes picking a captain a mundane task in most instances, but do we actually need to take a risk to make up ground in the rankings?

One case in point is Gawn from Round 15 last year. He had a bad day at the office, managing just 46 points against the Lions, while the most captained player for the round, Brodie Grundy, had a blinder against the Kangaroos, scoring 133 points.

Brodie Grundy is a reliable choice as captain in KFC SuperCoach.

But if you took a risk and captained the in-form Rowan Marshall instead, you would have been rewarded with 322 points after his score was doubled. That’s a massive 230 more points than Gawn’s captain return.

Another example is Grundy from Round 21, as he came up against Gawn in a heavyweight battle. But he could manage only 172 points as a captain’s score. Once again, if you picked an in-form Josh Dunkley instead, he would have rewarded you with 306 points – 134 more points than Grundy.

MORE KFC SUPERCOACH NEWS:

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The predicted top SuperCoach scorer at every club

SuperCoach guru The Phantom joins Tim Michell at the bar to discuss Dan Houston’s new midfield role

KFC SuperCoach 10 commandments: Follow these rules for success

With Mitchell returning to the fold in 2020, it remains to be seen if fantasy coaches revert back to old habits by captaining the ball-magnet, or will they continue to back the ruck beast that is Grundy?

As highlighted above, picking someone completely different can also be rewarding, but knowing when to pick them is the hard part. One thing is for sure, we will endure plenty of headaches as we ponder which player to captain from week to week.

This article first appeared in the 2020 AFL Prospectus. Purchase your copy here for $39.95.

Originally published as Champion Data expert Fantasy Freako explains the science of selecting a KFC SuperCoach captain