AFL SuperCoach Round 10 trade guide: The premiums to target by trading Adelaide ruckman Reilly O’Brien
He’ll cost you most of the cash you’ve banked, but can you really afford to go without prolific Brisbane midfielder Lachie Neale any longer? Plus which rookies are worth picking. Round 10 TRADE GUIDE.
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This is a thankyou note to Reilly O’Brien.
The Crows No. 2 ruckman has proven one of the trades of the SuperCoach season, rising to $398,400 from his starting price of $136,800.
That $260,000 profit will mean the difference between a rookie and a premium for most sides and the time has come to cash in.
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Unless you’re content with your defence, midfield and forward line, this is the round to turn O’Brien into a top-liner such as Brodie Grundy, Max Gawn, Travis Boak, Shannon Hurn, Jack Macrae or Josh Kelly.
If you can afford to hold O’Brien, who is in 29,764 — or about 15 per cent — of teams, then he’ll provide valuable cover in the daunting Round 13 bye when he takes on a Richmond side without its No. 1 big man Toby Nankervis.
But with Sam Jacobs due to return in 1-2 weeks from knee surgery, there’s no guarantee O’Brien will still be the first-choice ruckman when that bye arrives.
Here are the ways you can turn O’Brien into a top premium:
ROOKIE DOWNGRADE
Darcy Fort scored 105 on debut and although Geelong is stacked with ruck options, he should be a cash cow in the second half of the year. The Cats will likely regain Rhys Stanley and Esava Ratugolea in coming weeks, but $117,300 ruckman Fort will net you about $280,000 in a downgrade from O’Brien to spend elsewhere. The flaws in this plan are he shares the Round 13 bye with Gawn and Grundy and if you got O’Brien by swinging Patrick Bines forward, the Eagles rookie will be stuck in attack.
THE BINES SWING
If you’ve been banking money in the past month, you might have enough to turn O’Brien into a premium forward. For about $140,000, the Crow can become Travis Boak by swinging Bines onto your ruck bench and adding the Power star. You can also switch Bines onto the ruck bench, bring in impressive St Kilda first-gamer Robbie Young and have $280,000 to spend on upgrades elsewhere. Bines can then act as your captaincy loophole for the rest of the season. A full list of top upgrade targets is listed below.
TRADING ROB TO:
Jake Lloyd $158,300 upgrade
Lachie Whitfield $158,000 upgrade
Jack Macrae $186,200
L: Lachie Neale $237,000
Shannon Hurn $186,900
Mitch Duncan $185,800
Travis Boak $144,100
David Mundy $193,300
Elliot Yeo $179,200
Jack Ziebell $63,900
Robbie Young +281,100
Isaac Heeney $55,500
Tom Stewart $110,200
THE RUCK UPGRADE
If you still don’t have Max Gawn and Brodie Grundy, you’re burning points each week and missing the chance to gain ground in the rankings. If you build your bank by downgrading a rookie who has maxed out such as Matt Parker to his teammate Young, it might give you the money to add one of the ‘set and forget’ ruckmen.
SAFETY FIRST
O’Brien has an average of 89.3 and while Don Pyke doesn’t pick his team on ranking points, the ruckman has made a strong case to keep Sam Jacobs out of the senior team or at least share ruck duties. O’Brien will be rucking against Tom Hickey/Nathan Vardy, Max Gawn and Shane Mumford before taking on Ivan Soldo and Noah Balta in Round 13. Check your bye structure and if an 80-90 score could set you apart, consider ways to hold O’Brien and upgrade elsewhere.
TOP TARGETS
Jack Macrae $584,600 Mid, Avg: 117.3 Break even: 90
Macrae hit his base price heading into Round 9 but is still very affordable considering he started the season at $689,700. If you want him, it probably has to be this week as he has a Round 12 bye. You hardly want to be bringing Macrae in for Round 11 when he’s going to miss the next week and he could be too expensive again after the bye rounds.
Lachie Neale $635,400, Mid, Avg: 131.9, BE: 117
The top scorer of the year dashed any hopes coaches had of getting him cheaply when he scored 148 — only 10 short of his high break even of 158. If you want Neale in your side after his Round 13 bye, you’re going to need to build a war chest in coming weeks to accommodate him. He won’t come cheaper than $600,000 and that means it’s going to cost you a considerable amount to get from a rookie to the prolific Lion.
Jake Lloyd $556,700, Def, Avg: 115.2, BE: 108
Much like Neale, Lloyd went close to his towering break even on Saturday with 141 against North Melbourne and therefore won’t fall much further. All signs are pointing to him being a top-two defender this year and although he has the dreaded Round 13 bye, you want him in your team soon. Don’t miss out if you can add Lloyd on the cheap this week.
Shannon Hurn $585,300, Def, Avg: 116.9, BE: 81
The new kick-in rules were supposed to have a drastic impact on SuperCoach scoring, but ever-reliable West Coast skipper Hurn is the only player to have seen a significant spike in scoring. Hurn is averaging 117 after scoring 161 against Melbourne, more than 20 points higher than his career-best SuperCoach average of 96.4 for last year. A price tag of about $600,000 is steep, but can we afford to go without him?
Mitch Duncan $584,200, Mid, Avg: 111.1, BE: 80
The one member of Geelong’s star-studded midfield who has never got the SuperCoach plaudits he deserves. Duncan has four consecutive scores of 116 or better and was herculean against the Bulldogs with 144. After averaging 109.8 and 106.2 in the past two years, he appears capable of pushing into the elite 110+ bracket and is the ultimate POD in less than one per cent of teams.
Travis Boak $542,500, Fwd, Avg: 113.7, BE: 138
A high break even heading into the Power’s sodden clash with Gold Coast means Boak is below $550,000 for the first time since Round 4. He only had two hundreds in his past five games but is showing all the signs of a top-two or top-three on-baller come season’s end. If you trade Boak in this week, you get the benefit of two scores before he has a bye in Round 12.
David Mundy $591,700, Fwd-Mid, Avg: 106.4, BE: 100
You’ve got to feel for the coaches who made the understandable decision to trade David Mundy after his 35 in Round 2. Six of his last seven scores have been hundreds and five of those have been 110, including his 141 against Essendon on Saturday. Any concerns Nathan Fyfe’s return from concussion would take his points are long gone and Mundy is set to be a top-six forward.
Elliot Yeo $577,600, Mid, Avg: 104.3, BE: 93
Yeo has four successive scores of 115 or higher and five of his past six have been 114 or better. This is the form those who paid his starting price of $585,500 were anticipating and he’s a solid option to consider post his Round 13 bye.
Jack Ziebell $462,300, Fwd, Avg: 86.3, BE: 68
A return to midfield has agreed with Ziebell, who has three tons and a 68 in the past month. He was brilliant against Sydney in a losing team and is looming as the bargain forward option at his current price. He’s only averaged better than 90 once in the past six years, but in his current role the Roos captain at least deserves to be considered.
Robbie Young $117,300, Fwd, Avg: 69, BE: first game
The top downgrade option of the week, despite the SuperCoach rule to never trade in players after one game. It’s going to be hard to ignore the temptation to downgrade Matt Parker to his teammate Young this week after he had eight disposals, four tackles and kicked two goals in a positive debut showing against Collingwood.
Isaac Heeney $453,900, Fwd-Mid, Avg: 93.2, BE: 91
Welcome to SuperCoach de ja vu. Star Swan Heeney’s price will bottom out this week after a poor run before his 116 against North Melbourne and it’s the right time to trade him in if you trust he’s returned to form. If you chose to trade Heeney out earlier this year when he started the season with 85 and 67, this might be your best chance to bring him back at a discount.
HOLD
Patrick Dangerfield
Marty Hore
Brad Crouch
Charlie Constable
You’ll pay the price if you trade out Dangerfield based on the possibility he might miss one week with the ankle injury he suffered late in Geelong’s victory over Western Bulldogs. Find a way to sit him on your forward or midfield bench — depending on where you have the best cover. Melbourne’s first-year defender Hore is arguably the rookie of the year and continues to score well thanks to his high rate of intercept possessions. You’ll want his points during the byes and he could even be a finishing D7 or D8. Brad Crouch broke a frustrating run of scores close to 100 with a season-high 119 against Brisbane Lions and should get close to $500,000 now. Constable should be safe enough in the Geelong team if Dangerfield misses against Gold Coast and he’s more reliable than any other midfield rookies.
CHOPPING BLOCK
Tom Liberatore
Three scores in the 70s and a 58 from Libba in the past month. Thousands of coaches wisely jumped off in recent weeks but if the Bulldogs midfielder is still in your side, swing the axe. He’s struggling to have the same impact he did from rounds 2 to 5 when he was playing like a midfield keeper.
Angus Brayshaw
It’s been hard to watch a player who finished third in the Brownlow Medal last year struggle to adapt to a new role playing on a wing. Brayshaw hasn’t scored above 100 since Round 3 and only has two tons for the year. With his Round 13 bye also a concern, the time has come to bite the bullet, accept losing about $100,000 and decide whether you’d prefer to upgrade him or find a rookie to boost your bank balance.
Jack Petruccelle
There’s a case for holding Petruccelle, but working on the likelihood Patrick Dangerfield misses this week, you’ll want a premium forward to replace his points. If you can turn Petruccelle into Travis Boak, don’t hesitate, however you could get away with fielding the Eagle for one week if Danger will return. Petruccelle will miss Round 13, the bye round where we need rookies to be playing.
Matt Parker
Unfortunately filling the highlights reel with the odd speccy and goal doesn’t translate to SuperCoach points. Parker lost money on the weekend and after two 80s to start the year he has only scored better than 51 twice. Expect a trade to his teammate Robbie Young to be the most popular trade of Round 10.
Jordan Clark
If you fielded Clark after his positive return in Round 8, you were badly burned as he finished on 24 at the final siren before being scaled to 33. With a break even of 26 heading into Round 9, he won’t make any more money. If you have to hold him, make sure he’s on your bench as his scoring has been volatile.
Reilly O’Brien
For all the reasons listed above, I favour cashing in O’Brien this week. He’s no guarantee to still be the No. 1 ruckman in Round 13 with Sam Jacobs close to returning. A trade this week could set up your team for the rest of the campaign.
BARGAIN BIN
Jeremy Cameron $496,400 Avg: 99.2
Brayden Fiorini $492,400 Avg: 101.2
Daniel Rich $491,700 Avg: 99.8
Shane Savage $490,100 Avg: 92
James Harmes $484,100 Avg: 94.8
Bachar Houli $473,800 Avg: 100.8
Michael Walters $472,800 Avg: 95
Patrick Dangerfield $471,000 Avg: 100.7
Tom Rockliff $469,400 Avg: 100.3
Jack Billings $462,700 Avg: 94.4
Jack Ziebell $462,300 Avg: 86.3
Jack Crisp $461,200 Avg: 89.1
Isaac Heeney $453,900 Avg: 93.2
Rowan Marshall $447,900 Avg: 97.7
Luke Dunstan $446,300 Avg: 90.6
Originally published as AFL SuperCoach Round 10 trade guide: The premiums to target by trading Adelaide ruckman Reilly O’Brien
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