St Kilda list analysis: Youngsters must further develop or finals push will stall
THE jury is out on St Kilda and 2016 looms as a critical year if the Saints are to play finals in the near future. Gary Buckenara analyses the Saints and their trade targets.
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THE jury is still out on St Kilda.
Yes, they were one of the season’s surprise packets and showed plenty of talent in games, which suggests the list is in good shape but too often they dropped away mid-match and mid-quarter.
The Saints were competitive in a lot of games and didn’t get totally smashed by big margins like in previous seasons so that’s a good sign, but there are still holes in the list that need to be filled in order to take the team forward.
There are challenges in replacing the older players — some of which happen to be their best players — if they’re to continue to rise up the ladder. Those players are Nick Riewoldt, Leigh Montagna, Sam Fisher, Sam Gilbert and Sean Dempster.
Development is the key.
They’ve already ticked off a lot of the positional needs to a degree (with the imminent addition of Jake Carlisle) — there’s good defensive structure, clever players and good structure up froward and they also have reasonable midfielders.
That means so much is going to depend on how Jack Billings goes even though he’s already shown talent, Josh Bruce up forward — can he take another step on what he showed this year — Hugh Goddard and Paddy McCartin who were such early picks but need to show a bit more than what they did this season and Tim Membrey is another one who needs to show a bit more.
Eli Templeton and Nathan Wright have been injured but showed good signs, Luke Dunstan — all these guys need to step up because they are very, very important players in what the Saints are trying to achieve.
Then there’s David Armitage who is a leader but needs to keep going and getting better, as does Jack Steven.
If these players don’t keep improving, then there could be a big hiccup in St Kilda’s plans.
One way to ensure they do keep improving is to manage Riewoldt and considering playing him for 15 or 16 games a year, while having him take Goddard under his wing and show him the work ethic that’s required to make it in this caper. Work ethic is probably the only thing that’s currently lacking in Goddard’s game because he’s got all the skills to be able to do what Riewoldt has done for so many years.
When it comes down to the argument over handing pick No. 5 to Essendon for Jake Carlisle, the question has to be asked: Will St Kilda get a key position player to the quality of Carlisle with that pick? In terms of immediate help, the answer is no.
They could pick Charlie Curnow at No. 5 who will develop into a really good player in 3-4 years but for their structure now, to get someone like Carlisle, my plan of attack would be give up pick 5 to get him but get Essendon’s second-round pick (currently No. 23) in return.
In terms of Nathan Freeman from Collingwood, if they can get Essendon’s second-round pick you would on-trade that to the Pies for sure. He adds the outside speed that they so desperately need and still have their own second-round pick (currently No. 24) to grab a nice player.
2016 is a critical year for St Kilda. Their rise up the ladder must continue for the sake of the entire football club.
WHAT THEY NEED
The Saints definitely need more key position players both forward and in defence. They need better users of the footy, players with speed and endurance with good kicking skills. Possibly, depending on what happens in the ruck department, they could also look to add something there. They’ve got the American Jason Holmes, Billy Longer and Tom Hickey but the critical thing is that they can’t afford any injuries to their rucks. It would leave a big hole so that’s something to consider whether it’s through the draft or via a trade.
In the next year or so targeting more experienced and quality players from other clubs via trade or free agency might be on the agenda because they do have a lot of talented young players having focused on drafting in the last few seasons to rebuild the list.
WHO’S UNDER THE PUMP
In my opinion, there are a few players with question marks over them in terms of are they good enough, and are they in St Kilda’s long-term plans? One of them is Blake Acres, who was a reasonably early pick but to me he might be under the pump although he could be saved given the lack of depth in this year’s draft and changes they might make to the list because of that.
He has got some talent but to me he isn’t a good decision maker and needs to work on his disposal. Tom Curren is also in this category; Jarryn Geary might be at the end, Tom Lee, Lewis Pierce, Farren Ray, Josh Saunders and Ahmed Saad and Brenton Payne as rookies. All these guys need to show something if they are staying on for next season.
WHO SHOULD GO
Adam Schneider has retired and Spencer White, Arryn Sipposs, Tom Simpkin and Daniel Markworth have already been delisted but I’d suggest Lee, Ray, Saunders and Webster are likely to be the ones under the most pressure due to age or lack of form. But given the delistings and retirements already some should survive.
CRYSTAL BALL
St Kilda might have waited a bit too long to start preparing for life after guys like Riewoldt and Fisher but that’s definitely what they were doing when they picked McCartin and Goddard last year. They are on the right track.
So much depends on the development because if the young players don’t keep improving then there could be a big hiccup in St Kilda’s plans. Are these talented youngsters going to turn into premiership players?
How they cover for the loss of those experienced players in the next one or two years is critical. If they don’t cover their loss and players don’t come on as expected, then their rise up the ladder might stall.
The Saints could go be knocking on the door of the top eight in a year or two but if they don’t keep developing they could stall and do a bit of a Melbourne. A lot of that sits on the shoulders of Goddard and McCartin because if they don’t develop into top line players, then that will set St Kilda back a fair bit.
But if everything goes right and some of these players really come on, then the Saints could be challenging for a premiership in 3-5 years.
Gary Buckenara helped build Hawthorn’s three-peat premiership list and now he runs a rule over club lists in an exclusive column for the Herald Sun.
Buckenara was a major part of Hawthorn’s recruiting team between 2004-2015 and was responsible for bringing Lance Franklin, Jarryd Roughead and Jordan Lewis to the Hawks in 2004 when he was the Hawks’ sole full-time recruiter.
Originally published as St Kilda list analysis: Youngsters must further develop or finals push will stall
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