Run home predictor: Tarquin Oakley and Tim Michell examine the likely scenarios for every finals contender
Nine games left. A host of finals permutations still in play. We examine the scenarios facing every contender and the likely outcomes after round 24. How will week one of finals look?
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It all comes down to this.
One of the closest seasons in AFL history will come to a dramatic end this weekend with a series of decisive matches which will shape the top eight.
Only Sydney can feel comfortable heading into round 24 after all but securing the minor premiership.
There are 10 teams still in the mix for finals — albeit Collingwood’s hopes of saving its premiership defence are incredibly slim.
The race for the double chance and top eight will decided over three days where a host of permutations are still in play.
Tarquin Oakley and Tim Michell look at the likely week one finals matches and best and worst-case scenario for every contender.
PREDICTED FINALS
First Qualifying Final: Sydney (1st) v GWS (4th)
Second Qualifying Final: Port Adelaide (2nd) v Geelong (3rd)
First Elimination Final: Brisbane (5th) v Carlton (8th)
Second Elimination Final: Western Bulldogs (6th) v Hawthorn (7th)
1. SYDNEY
Won: 16, Lost: 6, Points: 64, Percentage: 126.3
FINAL MATCH: Saturday night v Adelaide Crows (SCG)
The Swans have top spot all but locked away. It would take a monumental percentage swing for Sydney to surrender the minor premiership in the last round. The Swans are almost certain to host two finals at the SCG, starting with a possible rematch of the 2022 decider or a Sydney derby.
MOST LIKELY: Host Geelong or GWS in a qualifying final in week one of finals at the SCG.
BEST SCENARIO: No injuries, a comfortable win over Adelaide and top spot secured with little fuss. The Swans lost to Port Adelaide by 112 points in round 21, so would ideally dodge the Power in case there’s any mental scarring. The Swans have won the last three derbies against GWS so would fancy their chances against their cross-town rival.
WORST SCENARIO: If the Swans lost by 100+ points to Adelaide, Port Adelaide thumped Fremantle and GWS won big against Western Bulldogs, there’s a one-in-a-million scenario where the Swans finish third. But even then, they’d be playing against GWS in a Sydney derby anyway. To give you an idea of how remote this is, GWS needs a swing of about 240 points.
2. PORT ADELAIDE
Won: 15, Lost: 7, Points: 60, Percentage: 114.2
FINAL MATCH: Sunday twilight v Fremantle (Optus Stadium)
The Power are in a fantastic spot to clinch a home qualifying final. And they’ll know the exact equation of what’s required given they play the final match of the round. GWS have to make up about seven goals worth of percentage to catch Port while the Cats need to make up a game as well as roughly 21 goals worth of percentage.
MOST LIKELY: Host Geelong or GWS in a qualifying final at the Adelaide Oval.
BEST SCENARIO: Port would need to make up about a 200-point percentage swing to catch Sydney on top. So realistically, their best case scenario is second spot. In terms of their opponent, Geelong surpassing GWS would probably be ideal given the Power accounted for the Cats at Kardinia Park earlier this year.
WORST SCENARIO: A loss to Fremantle brings Geelong into the equation and could see the Power drop to fourth with a huge Cats win.
3. GWS
Won: 15, Lost: 7, Points: 60, Percentage: 111.7
FINAL MATCH: Sunday early afternoon v Western Bulldogs (MARS)
The Giants can’t stop winning and they’ll likely have to claim another scalp if they want a home qualifying final. A loss puts them in danger of falling to fourth, which would set up a tantalising match-up.
MOST LIKELY: GWS face Sydney or Port Adelaide in an away qualifying final.
BEST CASE SCENARIO: The Giants win and the Power lose, or GWS make up a seven-goal percentage buffer on Port to claim second spot. The Giants would then host Port or Geelong.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: It’s hard to know if the Giants would rather fall to third and face either Port Adelaide or Geelong away from home, or a drop to fourth would see them stay in Sydney to face the Swans. Their recent derby record isn’t great.
4. GEELONG
Won: 14, Lost: 8, Points: 56, Percentage: 107.7
FINAL MATCH: Saturday early afternoon v West Coast (GMHBA)
The Cats will be eyeing a top-two spot when they host a West Coast side which will be without Jeremy McGovern and Tom Barrass. However, Chris Scott’s side will be relying on the Western Bulldogs defeating GWS and Fremantle defeating Port Adelaide. Geelong can heap pressure onto those two sides and climb to second with a win of about 21 goals over the Eagles, which would launch the Cats to second for at least 20 hours.
MOST LIKELY: The Cats travel to Adelaide or Sydney for a qualifying final against GWS, Port Adelaide or Sydney.
BEST SCENARIO: Port Adelaide and GWS lose on Sunday, they demolish West Coast and host the Power in a qualifying final.
WORST SCENARIO: West Coast causes a major boilover and at least three of Brisbane, Western Bulldogs, Hawthorn and Carlton win, forcing Geelong into an away elimination final after dropping to seventh or eighth. The doomsday scenario would be heading to Brisbane.
5. BRISBANE
Won: 13, Lost: 8, Drawn: 1, Points: 54, Percentage: 121.6
FINAL MATCH: Saturday night v Essendon (Gabba)
The Lions looked certain to clinch a top-four spot only a few weeks ago but now need a miracle to steal a double chance. Brisbane will be favoured to account for Essendon but needs West Coast to cause an almighty boilover against Geelong to slide into fourth after a one-point defeat to Collingwood allowed GWS and Port Adelaide to move six points clear of the Lions.
MOST LIKELY: Defeat Essendon but Geelong wins against West Coast so the Lions finish fifth and host an elimination final against Carlton or Fremantle.
BEST SCENARIO: West Coast stuns the Cats and they snatch fourth and travel to Sydney in week one of finals.
WORST SCENARIO: The Lions can still miss finals if Western Bulldogs, Hawthorn, Carlton and Fremantle win and they lose to Essendon. The Dockers need a percentage swing of 7.9 per cent on the Lions, or about 120 points.
6. WESTERN BULLDOGS
Won: 13, Lost: 9, Points: 52, Percentage: 123.8
FINAL MATCH: Saturday early afternoon v GWS (MARS)
Amazingly, if the Dogs don’t account for the third-placed Giants they are at serious risk of missing the finals altogether. This is the sixth time in the past eight seasons the Western Bulldogs have headed into the last round with their finals chances hanging in the balance.
MOST LIKELY: Host the Hawks at the MCG in an epic eliminator.
BEST SCENARIO: Finish fourth if the Lions and Cats lose. If those sides win as expected, the Dogs best chance at avoiding Hawthorn in an elimination final would be Carlton overtaking the brown and gold on percentage to finish seventh.
WORST SCENARIO: Lose to GWS plus Hawthorn, Carlton and Fremantle all win to boot the Dogs out of the eight. If just one of those sides lose, it would likely send the Bulldogs to Brisbane.
7. HAWTHORN
Won: 13, Lost: 9, Points: 52, Percentage: 111.8
FINAL MATCH: Saturday twilight v North Melbourne (UTAS)
The Hawks are on the verge of making the finals for the first time since 2018. A win on Saturday gets them in, then they have to sit back and watch to find out who and where they’ll be playing.
MOST LIKELY: Face the Western Bulldogs in an elimination final.
BEST SCENARIO: Can finish fourth if the three teams above them lose. To avoid the Dogs in an elimination final, a GWS victory opens the door for the Hawks to host the Blues. If Carlton were also to lose and Fremantle win, Hawthorn would host the Dockers.
WORST SCENARIO: Lose to North Melbourne, then Carlton either win or jump Hawthorn on percentage and Fremantle beat Port Adelaide to send the Hawks tumbling out of the eight. If the Hawks account for North as expected, their worst case scenario would be the Blues making up a four-goal percentage gap and Brisbane winning which would see Hawthorn travel to the Gabba.
8. CARLTON
Won: 13, Lost: 9, Points: 52, Percentage: 110.7
FINAL MATCH: Sunday afternoon v St Kilda (Marvel)
The Blues defied the odds to defeat West Coast and keep their finals destiny in their own hands heading into round 24. But they still need to defeat St Kilda on Sunday to guarantee a top-eight spot. Otherwise, the last clash of the home-and-away season between Fremantle and Port Adelaide will decide the last finals spot.
MOST LIKELY: St Kilda will be no pushovers this week. If the Blues get over the Saints, a daunting trip to Brisbane to take on the Lions beckons.
BEST SCENARIO: Essendon defeats Brisbane and the Western Bulldogs lose to GWS, allowing the Blues to climb to sixth and host Fremantle in an elimination final if other results go as expected. Fourth spot is mathematically alive but that would involve the Cats losing to the Eagles – so count that out. Carlton can also avoid Brisbane with a Bulldogs loss or by overtaking the Hawks on percentage – although that appears unlikely with Sam Mitchell’s team up against North Melbourne.
WORST SCENARIO: Carlton loses to St Kilda, Fremantle defeats Port Adelaide a few hours later and the Blues’ season is over. The absolute worst-case scenario would be losing by 100+ points, Fremantle losing to Port Adelaide and Collingwood pulling off a Steven Bradbury to snatch eighth. Imagine how Blues fans would take that after Jamie Elliott broke their hearts in 2022.
9. FREMANTLE
Won: 12, Lost: 9, Drawn: 1, Points: 50, Percentage: 113.7
FINAL MATCH: Sunday twilight v Port Adelaide (Optus Stadium)
It’s never a good spot to be in when you’re relying on other sides to earn a spot in the finals. If the Hawks, Blues or Dogs lose, a Fremantle win would put them inside the top eight. If Brisbane lose, Freo would need to make up roughly a 20-goal percentage gap to take their place.
MOST LIKELY: Miss the eight regardless of their clash with the Power as the four sides above them all get the four points. A Blues or Dogs loss seems the most plausible way the Dockers make the finals – if one of those results goes Freo’s way they would likely head to Brisbane in an elimination final.
BEST SCENARIO: Can still earn a home final if the Hawks, Blues and Dogs all lose. Or two of those sides lose and Fremantle overtake Brisbane on percentage after the Lions lose.
WORST SCENARIO: The Dockers can fall to tenth with a loss to Port Adelaide and a Collingwood win.
10. COLLINGWOOD
Won: 11, Lost: 9, Drawn: 2, Points: 48, Percentage: 100.1
FINAL MATCH: Friday night v Melbourne (MCG)
On Saturday evening after their miraculous one-point victory over Brisbane, the Magpies’ premiership defence was alive. About 24 hours later when Carlton romped home against West Coast, Craig McRae’s side was left needing a miracle to sneak in.
MOST LIKELY: Collingwood will be favoured to account for Melbourne on Friday night, but would likely still sit ninth behind Carlton due to percentage. The chances of finishing any higher than that are even slimmer than that round 23 comeback against Brisbane was with a few minutes left. They might be known for their Houdini acts, but even the Pies have surely left their run too late.
BEST SCENARIO: Collingwood romps home by at least 15 goals against Melbourne, leaving Carlton and Fremantle to sweat for 36 hours on their results. If the Saints get off to a flyer against the Blues in the Sunday afternoon game, Pies fans could start getting excited.
WORST SCENARIO: A loss to Melbourne and Essendon victory over Brisbane would cause the Pies to drop to 12th.
Originally published as Run home predictor: Tarquin Oakley and Tim Michell examine the likely scenarios for every finals contender
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