Run Home: Every club’s last seven games, predicting where your team will finish
When the Pies smashed Port early in the season, no one would have picked it would be those two fighting to the 2023 finish line. So who wins the race? Check out our predicted ladder here.
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Just seven rounds remain as the race for the top-eight continues to heat up.
Here is your team’s run home — and where we think they will finish.
1. COLLINGWOOD
Played: 16, Won: 14, Lost: 2, Points: 56, Percentage: 137.1
The Pies look a class above the rest of the competition at the moment and will only get stronger when Brody Mihocek and Dan McStay return to their forward line. There is only one interstate game to come against the Power, which will be an intriguing top-of-the-table clash. But it’s worth remembering that Collingwood won the last match between the sides by 71 points at the MCG in round 2. If they are to go 21-2, it would make for the Magpies’ best season since they went 20-2 in 2011.
2. PORT ADELAIDE
Played: 16, Won: 14, Lost: 2, Points: 56, Percentage: 119.9
Like the Magpies, there is nothing standing in Port Adelaide’s way in its quest for a top-two finish. The Power have now won their past 13 games on the trot and should make that 14 against Carlton this weekend. Marvel Stadium has been a happy hunting ground for Port in recent years, with the side having won its past nine games at the venue. Collingwood will be a challenge next week, but that is the only top-seven team to come in a favourable finish to the year.
3. BRISBANE LIONS
Played: 16, Won: 12, Lost: 4, Points: 48, Percentage: 133.2
The Lions still have a few tough games to come, but will finish top four given they sit three games clear of fifth-placed Essendon with seven matches to go. Brisbane has long had a problem with playing at the MCG and still has two games to play at the home of football, starting with Melbourne this weekend. The Lions have won just one of their past 14 matches at the MCG – but that did come against the Demons in last year’s semi-final.
4. MELBOURNE
Played: 16, Won: 10, Lost: 6, Points: 40, Percentage: 127.4
The Demons aren’t exactly firing on all cylinders at the moment, but did return to the winners’ list with a 21-point triumph over St Kilda last Friday night. Scoring remains an issue, but at the same time Melbourne is holding up well defensively. Only one more current top-eight team awaits in the run home – that being Brisbane this week – and the Dees still have three games to come against bottom-four sides. Given that, they should find some momentum leading into September and lock in a third top-four finish in as many years.
5. ESSENDON
Played: 16, Won: 9, Lost: 7, Points: 36, Percentage: 107.1
The Bombers haven’t been this high on the ladder after round 17 since 2013, when they sat second at this stage of the season. It has been an impressive turnaround under new coach Brad Scott, who has unlocked the side’s potential. Essendon took care of Adelaide on Sunday and fell just four points short of second-placed Port Adelaide the previous week. From their past seven games, the Bombers have gone 5-2. Only three top-eight sides are still to come in Geelong, Western Bulldogs and Collingwood. Win one of those and the rest of their games and they should hold on to fifth spot and a home final.
6. ST KILDA
Played: 16, Won: 9, Lost: 7, Points: 36, Percentage: 106.8
Since a 4-0 start to the season, the Saints have gone 5-7. The past six weeks have largely been a disappointment, with the only wins during that period coming against bottom-four sides West Coast and Sydney. The Saints have now lost key forward Max King to a season-ending shoulder injury, which won’t help their chances of holding on to a finals spot. There are only two current top-eight opponents to come in Geelong and Brisbane, but games against Gold Coast, Carlton and Richmond won’t be easy, either.
7. WESTERN BULLDOGS
Played: 16, Won: 9, Lost: 7, Points: 36, Percentage: 103.9
A top-four finish looks like evading the Western Bulldogs yet again, following four losses in the past six weeks. A defeat to Collingwood last Friday night brought up a worrying statistic once again. Against top-eight teams this season, the Bulldogs have gone 1-6. The good news is there is only two top-eight teams left to play in Essendon and Geelong. The Bulldogs should be winning their other games, which would see them finish sixth and secure a home final.
8. GEELONG
Played: 16, Won: 8, Lost: 7, Drawn: 1, Points: 34, Percentage: 117.7
The Cats did what they needed to do against North Melbourne on Sunday, securing a 62-point win against the second-last side. Coach Chris Scott will hope that his players built some confidence from that win, because Geelong has the toughest run home of any side. Six of their last seven games are against current top-eight teams. However, the good news is that there are still four games to come at GMHBA Stadium, where the Cats have gone 4-1 this year. That should be enough for Geelong to hold on to a top-eight spot, but whether the reigning premiers can get going and do any damage come September remains to be seen.
9. ADELAIDE
Played: 16, Won: 8, Lost: 8, Points: 32, Percentage: 116.6
The Crows are a different team at Adelaide Oval to what they are interstate. At home this season, they have gone 6-2. On the road, they have a horror record of 1-6. Four more games at Adelaide Oval – plus an away clash against bottom-placed West Coast – should ensure the Crows play finals. But unless they figure out how to perform better on the road, they will make a speedy exit from September.
10. GWS GIANTS
Played: 16, Won: 8, Lost: 8, Points: 32, Percentage: 98.4
The Giants have won five of their past six games in an impressive run of form and have certainly set a strong platform for further growth next year. While they sit in finals contention now, it is hard to see them adding more than two or three more wins to their current tally as a tough run home awaits. Four of GWS’ last seven games are against teams currently above them on the ladder.
11. CARLTON
Played: 16, Won: 7, Lost: 8, Draw: 1, Points: 30, Percentage: 107.8
They finished ninth on percentage last year and two points and a handful of percentage points might cost the Blues a spot in finals this time around. As much as the past three games have been positive, the wins have come against Gold Coast (13th), Hawthorn (16th) and Fremantle (14th). Against top-eight teams this season, the Blues have gone 1-6 and they still face three of those sides in the run home in Port Adelaide, Collingwood and Melbourne. Beat one of those teams and finals hopes will be well and truly alive. However, you couldn’t count on that yet.
12. RICHMOND
Played: 16, Won: 7, Lost: 8, Drawn: 1, Points: 30, Percentage: 96.9
A fighting win over Sydney last Thursday night kept the Tigers in the hunt for finals. However, that now looks an unlikely result as the side finds itself one game and percentage out of the top-eight with seven games to go. Richmond should chalk up wins against bottom-four sides West Coast, Hawthorn and North Melbourne. But they would also need to beat at least one top-eight side in Melbourne, Western Bulldogs, St Kilda or Port Adelaide to be any chance. That’s possible, but you wouldn’t say it’s likely.
13. GOLD COAST
Played: 16, Won: 7, Lost: 9, Points: 28, Percentage: 92.5
The heat is on Suns coach Stuart Dew ahead of a huge final seven weeks of the season. Gold Coast has lost three of its past four games and still has three games ahead against teams which are currently in the top half of the ladder. In his sixth season in charge, Dew’s best result was a 12th placed finish last year. If the Suns don’t lift in the last two months and better that result, it is hard to see him hanging on to his job.
14. FREMANTLE
Played: 16, Won: 7, Lost: 9, Points: 28, Percentage: 91.7
The Dockers have been the disappointment of the season and have lost four of their past five games to fall right out of finals contention. A 53-point loss to Carlton at home on Sunday was just the latest blow and made for a poor 4-4 record at Optus Stadium this year. It’s all about next year now for Fremantle, which still has four games to come against top-eight sides. After finishing fifth last year, a 14th placed finish would be a mighty fall.
15. SYDNEY
Played: 16, Won: 6, Lost: 9, Drawn: 1, Points: 26, Percentage: 110.8
The Swans weren’t tough enough for long enough against Richmond last Thursday night as they suffered their ninth loss of the season, after dropping just six games across the whole home-and-away campaign last year. There have been some reasons for the drop off – including key injuries – however it has still been a below-par year overall. It is not an easy run home by any means, so one or two more wins from here might be a good result.
16. HAWTHORN
Played: 16, Won: 4, Lost: 12, Points: 16, Percentage: 73.5
The Hawks have won just one of their past five games, but should add to their wins column this week when they face North Melbourne. Sam Mitchell’s side would also rate itself a good chance against a St Kilda side it beat in Round 11, as well as a struggling Fremantle at the MCG. But regardless, a bottom-three finish looks most likely.
17. NORTH MELBOURNE
Played: 16, Won: 2, Lost: 14, Points: 8, Percentage: 66.8
The Roos have already lost 14 games in a row. Could that streak extend to 21 losses by season’s end? The two games North Melbourne would be eyeing are both in the next three weeks – against fellow bottom-four sides Hawthorn and West Coast. However, the Hawks will head in favourites this week and West Coast has shown it can be more competitive at home.
18. WEST COAST
Played: 16, Won: 1, Lost: 15, Points: 4, Percentage: 48.2
Even if the Eagles can win one more game, they will still win the wooden spoon given their woeful percentage. North Melbourne at Optus Stadium in round 20 is the one that coach Adam Simpson would be eyeing off so his team can avoid being the first side in history to lose 22 games in a season.
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