Pure Footy: Stats men David King, Daniel Hoyne lift lid on AFL trends after round 9

Nine rounds into the season, Melbourne and Brisbane have put a gap on the competition. Who can challenge them at the pointy end? Find out in a new episode of Pure Footy.

After nine rounds, a clear picture is emerging of who can really challenge for the 2022 AFL premiership.

Champion Data analyst Daniel Hoyne and North Melbourne champion David King established the “core four” stats profile before round 1, ranking every team on four pillars history has shown to be the key to September success.

In the past decade 85 per cent of preliminary final teams have ranked in the top six in the core four – with the footy, without the footy, clearances and post-clearance contested possessions.

“There’s 85 per cent chance, based on the last decade, the preliminary final teams will come from those top six teams (on the core four ladder),” Hoyne said on this week’s episode of Pure Footy, the AFL analysis show exclusive to heraldsun.com.au.

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The ladder shows a clear top two in Brisbane and Melbourne, with the Lions on top – ranked No.4 in the AFL with the footy, No.4 without the footy, No.1 at clearances and No.4 in post-clearance contested possessions.

Then things get interesting.

Hoyne said there was a gap from the top two to a group of four teams – St Kilda, Carlton, Sydney and Geelong – that was almost impossible to separate.

The Saints, Blues and Swans rank top six in three of the four pillars while the Cats tick two of the four boxes.

“That is a really tight grouping. Any time this group comes up against each other is a huge game for their season – we saw St Kilda and Geelong, massive game, massive win for St Kilda, and we’ve got Carlton and Sydney this week. Huge game.”

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The Brisbane Lions are on top of the “core four” ladder after nine rounds. Picture: James Elsby/AFL Photos via Getty Images

The biggest surprises are Fremantle – currently third on the ladder with a 7-2 record – and Richmond – currently eighth, a game clear of the Dogs – ranking at the back end of the next group.

The Dockers and Tigers have the same problem but in different areas of the game. Fremantle is clearly the best team in the AFL without the footy – restricting opposition scoring and ball movement – but ranks 14th, 11th and 11th in the three other pillars.

In contrast, Hoyne said, “Richmond’s with the footy profile is so strong, but everything else in their game has some way to go. We saw that one the weekend, they conceded 94 points against the Hawks.”

He said the core four ladder showed the bottom three teams – Essendon, West Coast and North Melbourne – were “not in the same postcode as the rest of the competition”.

Also on a packed episode, King and Hoyne examined Patrick Dangerfield’s struggles, how Port Adelaide has turned its season around, St Kilda’s big recruiting triumph and some incredible Sam Walsh stats.

Originally published as Pure Footy: Stats men David King, Daniel Hoyne lift lid on AFL trends after round 9