Pure Footy: Stats men David King, Daniel Hoyne lift lid on AFL trends after round 14

Wins and losses tell you only so much. Stats experts dig into the numbers that history says will decide the premiership – and two teams are clear frontrunners.

With the top half of the ladder as even as any time in recent memory, who is best placed to emerge on top in September?

Champion Data analyst Daniel Hoyne and North Melbourne champion David King have developed the “core four” measures to rate how teams are really travelling, and now they have taken the analysis to another level by ranking every team’s core four profile against the top 12 sides in the competition, cutting off the ladder at six-win Port Adelaide.

And the analysis reveals some surprising problem areas, and two teams that are in great shape entering the run home. And flag favourite Melbourne isn’t one of them.

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In the past decade 85 per cent of preliminary final teams have ranked in the top six in the core four – with the footy, without the footy, clearances and post-clearance contested possessions.

After 14 rounds Fremantle is “miles ahead” of the competition without the footy but the Dockers and Demons both fall well short on the attacking “with the footy” pillar – ranking 17th and 15th against the top 12 sides respectively.

But two current top-four teams have all bases covered.

Brisbane and Geelong are the teams to beat based on the core four. Picture: Michael Klein

“To tank top three in both without the footy and with the footy, to me says your system is in good shape,” Hoyne said.

“That is the most reason to give you such confidence if you’re a Brisbane or Geelong supporter that your game is in good shape with nine rounds to go, and if those two rankings continue for the next nine weeks you’re going to be in this up to your eyeballs.”

Hoyne said one area with an element of luck that the Lions had benefited from so far this year could give the Cats reason for optimism.

Brisbane has been impacted by injury the least of any team, losing just 38 points under Champion Data’s formula, while Geelong has been second-hardest hit, losing 228 points – second only to West Coast.

“Brisbane had 13 players play every single game this year, miles ahead of anyone else” he said.

“If Geelong get that personnel back over the next 4-6 weeks you would think they are in a good position.”

Originally published as Pure Footy: Stats men David King, Daniel Hoyne lift lid on AFL trends after round 14