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Pure Footy: Stats men David King and Daniel Hoyne on the big round 2 trends

Geelong’s dominance in a key stat has disappeared in the opening two rounds for a bizarre reason – and as a result the Cats are getting ‘torched’.

Pure Footy - episode 2 2023

Confronted on AFL 360, Geelong coach Chris Scott described scores from turnovers as “a really broad stat that you’ve got to dig into a little bit deeper”.

Champion Data expert analyst Daniel Hoyne did just that, and found something “extraordinary”.

Defending turnovers, and scoring off turnovers they create, has been a strength of the Cats in recent seasons.

This year the numbers have flipped, and there is a simple contributing factor for why opposition teams are able to win the ball back off the Cats and hit the scoreboard.

“They are going for the hardest kicks in the competition by a mile,” Hoyne said on this week’s episode of Pure Footy.

WATCH THE FULL EPISODE OF PURE FOOTY ABOVE

Hoyne said he “almost fell off my chair” when he analysed the kicks Geelong players were attempting all over the field.

“The AFL average is about 50 per cent of your kicks should be going to a teammate.

“This year only 40 per cent of their kicks are meant to be hitting a teammate, based on the AFL average.

“Collingwood are going for hard kicks, they’re going at 48 per cent – that’s a low number. Geelong are going at 40 per cent. That’s extraordinary.

“I don’t know if I’ve ever seen a number like that over a two-week period.”

Gary Rohan kicks long against Carlton. Picture: Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images
Gary Rohan kicks long against Carlton. Picture: Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images

Incredibly, recruit Ollie Henry is the only Geelong player attempting kicks with a more than 50 per cent expected hit rate – “everyone else is around that 35-40 per cent mark”.

“As a result of pulling the trigger and trying to hit these amazingly challenging, difficult kicks, they’re getting absolutely torched the other way”.

In two rounds the Cats have given up 141 points from turnovers, an average of 70.5 per match. Last year they conceded an average of 34 points a game from the same source.

When it comes to “giveaways” – howlers that go straight to the opposition – “they’ve gifted up six goals a game.” Last season the Cats averaged 13.9 points against from giveaways.

“They weren’t boring last year, they were great to watch,” Hoyne said. “It’s just that for some reason they are trying to pull off the most outrageous kicks.”

In a big episode, Hoyne and Fox Footy expert David King took a close look at the Bulldogs’ midfield problems, the one stat hurting Adelaide coach Matthew Nicks, Fremantle’s Nat Fyfe dilemma and the myth of Collingwood’s lightning fast ball movement.

Originally published as Pure Footy: Stats men David King and Daniel Hoyne on the big round 2 trends

Original URL: https://www.couriermail.com.au/sport/afl/purefooty/pure-footy-stats-men-david-king-and-daniel-hoyne-on-the-big-round-2-trends/news-story/e8c53aaf0971ef429fe55630f89bc70c