Pure Footy: Stats gurus David King and Daniel Hoyne on the big trends ahead of round 21

David King says Port Adelaide can’t win the flag and stats guru Daniel Hoyne reveals why he wouldn’t back the Power in a home semi final.

Port Adelaide needs a massive form reversal to avoid a straight-sets final exit, according to Champion Data analyst Daniel Hoyne.

The Power have lost their past three matches after a 13-game winning streak, and Hoyne said that based on key statistical measures they should be $70 for the premiership rather than their current $7 price with TAB.

“The are miles off the pace ... I will fall off my chair if Port wins the flag this year with what they are dishing up at the moment,” he said on Pure Footy.

“On the core four ladder over a six-week period only Hawthorn, North Melbourne and West Coast are ranked below them.

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“They have massive concerns in each third of the ground at the moment, and if you’ve got massive concerns in each third of the ground with four weeks to go until finals, it’s very, very hard to turn that around.”

Champion Data’s “core four” premiership pillars rank every team with the footy, without the footy, on their strength at clearances and winning contests around the ground.

Port Adelaide ranks 15th, 12th, 13th and 15th in those categories over the past six weeks.

Port Adelaide is in a sudden form slump. Picture: Morgan Hancock/AFL Photos via Getty Images

“They are probably going to finish top four but I would be very surprised if they win a final with that profile,” Hoyne said.

“I would back Carlton’s profile absolutely over what Port Adelaide is doing at the moment regardless if it’s at Adelaide Oval, so things need to change drastically for them to get through to preliminary final weekend.”

North Melbourne champion David King said Port’s rankings had fallen off a cliff across the board since round 14.

“I’ll give you a statement – they can’t win it,” he said.

“They are huge drops, and I don’t think they are correctable in the short term.

“If the season went 30 weeks, they would be lucky to make the eight.”

The Power wasn’t the only team to come under close scrutiny when Hoyne and King analysed the contenders ticking the core fore boxes over the past six weeks.

Entering the “premiership runway” three teams tick all four boxes – Carlton, Brisbane and Sydney – while Collingwood, Adelaide and the Bulldogs are ranked top six in only one key pillar.

Port Adelaide, Essendon and Richmond all fail to rank top six in any of those categories.

Originally published as Pure Footy: Stats gurus David King and Daniel Hoyne on the big trends ahead of round 21