Pure Footy: Stats gurus David King and Daniel Hoyne on the big trends ahead of round 18

TAB has taken its largest ever bet on a game of footy, with a punter shelling out $1 million on the result of the Collingwood v Carlton blockbuster in round 20.

A footy punter has placed $1 million on Collingwood to win its round 20 blockbuster against Carlton.

It is the largest bet ever taken by TAB on an AFL game.

At odds of $1.40, the punter stands to make a $400,000 profit if the Pies win the Friday night clash on July 28.

The bet was revealed on Wednesday’s episode of Pure Footy, the AFL digital analysis show available exclusive every week at heraldsun.com.au.

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Champion Data analyst Daniel Hoyne threw a curve ball into Brownlow predictions by suggesting Nick Daicos could be managed if the Pies are heading towards another victory against Fremantle on Saturday.

“Will there be a game where Craig McRae subs him out early as management?” Hoyne said.

“We’ve seen Collingwood do it before. I know Scott Pendlebury is a bit older, but if I’m Collingwood right now ... you’ve got to manage your superstars, I think it could get to a game, and it could be Saturday, just to put him on ice for 40 minutes or 45 minutes.”

Daicos has been a big part of Collingwood’s success all season, and Hoyne revealed he has made the Magpies’ even more potent in the past three rounds playing as a full-time midfielder.

One punter will have a lot riding on the Magpies’ clash against Carlton. Picture: Quinn Rooney/Getty Images

In that time several of Collingwood’s key stats have spiked, notably clearance numbers and efficiency inside 50.

“His ability to impact the game at stoppage just purely through his cleanliness with ball in hand is phenomenal,” Hoyne said.

“He’s won 26 first possessions in the last three weeks, the next highest Collingwood player is Tom Mitchell with 14.”

North Melbourne champion David King said the biggest jump is the Pies’ ability to turn those clearances into a score.

“To go from +11 to +20 at this stage of the year ... to find nine points is massive.”

Hoyne said the percentage of Daicos’s disposals won in the defensive 50 had dropped from 27 per cent to 10 per cent.

“Where he’s getting a lot of his ball is in the defensive midfield pure counterpunch area.”

Also on this week’s show, Shai Bolton’s impact at Richmond, why Mitch Owens is the new Nat Fyfe and every team’s record against the best teams this season.

Originally published as Pure Footy: Stats gurus David King and Daniel Hoyne on the big trends ahead of round 18