Pure Footy: Stats gurus David King and Daniel Hoyne analyse stats, trends after second week of finals

Jordan De Goey is producing Dustin Martin-level numbers but he’s not the only thing Collingwood has to get right to upset Sydney in the preliminary final.

Collingwood is one win from a remarkable grand final appearance a year after finishing second-last on the ladder.

To get there the Magpies will have to reverse their round 22 result at the SCG when the Swans ran out 27-point winners.

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How can they do it? On this week’s episode of Pure Footy North Melbourne champion David King and Champion Data analyst Daniel Hoyne named Collingwood’s five keys to success.

1. Jordan De Goey

De Goey is the player of the finals, taking his game to a new level.

“His form is incredible at the moment. He’s been the No.1 rated player in the last two finals and only Dusty in 2020 has been the No.1 rated player in two consecutive finals over the past decade,” Hoyne said.

And the best news for Collingwood fans – De Goey didn’t play in round 22.

King said a third best-on-ground performance would make the uncontracted De Goey a $1 million a season player.

Jordan De Goey is dominating this September. Picture: Daniel Carson/AFL Photos via Getty Images

2. Stopping Heeney and Papley

The Pies’ defence has been outstanding all year but will have its work cut out against Sydney’s two mid-size fire-starters.

In round 22 Heeney had 10 disposals inside the forward 50, and 10 score involvements. Papley, meanwhile, was the No.1 rated player on the ground in the first half of Sydney’s qualifying final win against Melbourne.

Jeremy Howe is Heeney’s likely opponent and King said he would set Brayden Maynard the task of shutting down Papley.

3. Darcy Moore

Lance Franklin played one of his best games for the year against the Magpies in round 22 when kicked three goals from 15 disposals and was the second-ranked player on the ground.

Moore took seven intercept marks in Collingwood’s first final and Hoyne said he needed to go close to repeating that “off the charts” performance against Tom Hawkins on Saturday night “to mitigate what Franklin does and provide a bit of offensive flair for Collingwood, and help their ball movement is going to be key.”

Lance Franklin tries to close down Lance Franklin in round 22. Picture: Jason McCawley/AFL Photos/via Getty Images

4. Pressure

Collingwood almost pinched victory against Geelong in the qualifying final with a pressure rating of 195, but the Pies’ rating against Sydney last month was their sixth-worst for the season.

The key was Sydney’s ability to take marks to deny Collingwood the ability to tackle and force turnovers.

“Collingwood wants to be able to get that pressure up to that 185-190 level at a minimum, in that round 22 game it was only 179, so that’s going to be a key measure for them,” Hoyne said.

5. Ball movement

The Magpies have lost the contested possessions in both their finals but are in a preliminary final because of their ability to move the footy from defence to attack.

However, against the Swans in round 22 they recorded their fifth-lowest ball movement game of the season.

“That has been a strength of Collingwood,” Hoyne said. “Their ability to take corridor, be aggressive, that wave running and being able to get over the back and create really good looks going inside 50.

“That wasn’t there in the round 22 game. It’s clearly going to be a challenge for them again this week, but if they are able to get their ball movement going on the back of pressure, they’re going to be in it up to their eyeballs.”

Originally published as Pure Footy: Stats gurus David King and Daniel Hoyne analyse stats, trends after second week of finals