Pure Footy: David King, Daniel Hoyne lift lid on AFL trends, stats after round 4

It is the damning analysis that should have Essendon fans panicking. Why are the Bombers so easy to play against? Watch this week’s Pure Footy.

With the first four rounds in the bank, Champion Data analyst Daniel Hoyne is thrilled with the sample size on display and ready to make some big calls about this season.

Hoyne and David King have delved into their “core four” statistical principles, and it paints a miserable picture for Essendon supporters.

Ranked the ninth best side with the footy based on weighted averages of chain to score percentage, ball movement, scores per inside 50 and kick rating, the Bombers have lost the edge that saw them surge into the finals last season, Hoyne said.

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“You’d want to be a bit higher up given the fact you are the easiest team to play against without the footy,” he said.

“There’s no one easier than Essendon in the competition to play against so far this year.

“Along with Sydney they were one of the most lethal teams with the footy last year. They struggled defensively but they were first or second with the footy, so that was their point of difference to get them to September.”

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Darcy Parish has been continued to post big numbers this season. Picture: Getty Images

The Bombers are ranked the competition’s worst side in the “without the football” category, 16th for clearances, and last for post-clearance contested possessions.

The absence of Jake Stringer at centre bounces was “significant”, said King.

“When he’s in at clearances, they are a fair chance of scoring.

“You need to be more aggressive, you need to be more effective, you need to be in the top three or four for offence if you’re giving up the other side of the game.”

Collingwood’s two consecutive losses have surprised the duo, with Hoyne saying the side ranked fourth with the ball and second without has implemented a strong game plan.

“I get a little bit frustrated with Collingwood because I think they should be 4-0 with how they’ve been playing. They should’ve beaten Geelong, they should’ve beaten West Coast but they haven’t.

“It’s more how you’re doing it … if that (statistical) profile continues for the season, they’re playing finals.”

Carlton performed strongly in the clearances and post-clearance contested possession categories, but need to make “significant improvements” to their ball movement and defending, King said.

“I’m looking at Harry McKay – last year his ability to hit the scoreboard was as good as we’d seen across the comp,” he said.

“If Harry can get back to last year’s form, these numbers will correct quite quickly.”

Originally published as Pure Footy: David King, Daniel Hoyne lift lid on AFL trends, stats after round 4