Pure Footy: David King and Daniel Hoyne look at the latest trends in the AFL after round 22

Richmond is on the charge, and fans of other finalists are worried. But a stats guru says there is one huge flaw that rules out another Tiger premiership.

The Tiger train is coming. But one serious flaw will prevent Richmond claiming a fourth premiership in six years, according to the stats gurus.

Richmond’s era looked over when it trailed Brisbane by 42 points in the second quarter in round 20. But after roaring back to steal victory, the Tigers have backed it up with convincing wins against Port Adelaide and Hawthorn to lock in a return to finals.

They are widely seen as the most dangerous challenger in the bottom half of the eight with a forward line boasting Tom Lynch, Jack Riewoldt, Shai Bolton and surprise packet Noah Cumberland.

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But the club’s biggest issue all year has been at the other end of the ground, and is set to be exposed in September according to Champion Data analyst Daniel Hoyne and North Melbourne champion David King.

“It’s very easy in this industry to get sucked in to teams winning a couple of games and looking good, especially those teams that have had success in previous campaigns,” Hoyne said on Pure Footy, the weekly AFL analysis show exclusive to heraldsun.com.au.

He said Richmond’s attack was the fourth-best in the competition, but the Tigers ranked 13th without the footy and 12th for clearances – a very similar profile to Essendon last season and West Coast in 2019.

“They were both offensively strong ... but in terms of what they were doing without the footy, it was a concern – and week one of finals, they’re out. And Richmond is that team this year.

Tom Lynch has kicked 16 goals in the past three weeks. Picture: Mark Stewart

“What they are doing with the footy is the reason they are dangerous. In the first final if you’re not on and you have a bad day defensively, they will get through you and they will beat you because they are so dangerous.

“But if you’re switched on and you are there defensively, they give you a sniff going back the other way.

“Their defensive profile is something that they haven’t had in their successful finals campaigns. They will have to do it in a totally different way to how they did it from 2017-20.”

King was emphatic: “I’m telling you they’re not winning it because their defensive profile doesn’t stack up. I think they know that and they are embracing the shootout.”

Also on this week’s show, King and Hoyne preview Sunday’s Collingwood-Carlton blockbuster, compare Essendon and North Melbourne’s youngsters and reveal what Jeremy Cameron’s absence means for Geelong.

Originally published as Pure Footy: David King and Daniel Hoyne look at the latest trends in the AFL after round 22