Wreck It Ralph: Where Carlton went wrong and what it needs to be a genuine contender
With eight shots at goal for 2.5 and one that didn’t even make the distance, the Blues Coleman medallist may have lost his team a trip to the finals.
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Carlton isn’t really interested in those empty words about heartbreak building steely resolve.
Amid the fallout from the club’s diabolic loss to Collingwood, the club’s leaders still had to echo that sentiment because the alternative is finding a quiet corner and breaking down in tears.
Many clubs have had to endure heartache before they achieved greatness — Richmond’s three straight elimination finals losses, Geelong’s SCG Nick Davis moment, Melbourne’s 2018 66-point prelim final battering.
But as Carlton football boss Brad Lloyd said on Monday morning, the Blues believed they were good enough to make an impact THIS September.
How often do you hit finals with two key forwards in such dominant form, with Patrick Cripps in beast mode, in a finals series that still appears open, despite the quality of Melbourne and Geelong?
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With All Australian candidates including Cripps, Sam Walsh, Adam Saad, Sam Docherty and Curnow, Carlton knew it could beat the best in the competition.
There were wins this year over 2022 finalists Richmond, Western Bulldogs, Sydney and Fremantle, plus losses from winnable positions against Collingwood (twice) and Melbourne last week.
So, amid the desolation of butchering two winnable games against the Demons and Magpies, what are the lessons of those losses and what do Carlton need to fix to become a premiership side next year?
1. Seize the moment
In moments of crisis, Collingwood has repeatedly known exactly what to do in every single moment, and Carlton has panicked.
Last week, it was the Matt Owies missed kick to Adam Saad and Lochie O’Brien’s decision to knock the ball out of a contested situation out of a pack instead of creating a last-minute stoppage.
Here is the question for Carlton — did they know a draw was good enough to play finals and if they didn’t, why not?
Because if Corey Durdin knew a draw was enough, how did he ignore Harry McKay with a 10-metre gap on Darcy Moore with 72 seconds on the clock and the ball in his hands 65 metres from goal?
It was the easiest of kicks to hit up McKay, who could have called upon his left-foot snap to tie up scores.
Instead, he blasted the ball over his head where Jeremy Howe mopped up, given it was kicked to his advantage instead of Charlie Curnow in the square.
Michael Voss talks about adding layers to the game plan, but how much situational game training did the Blues get in for exactly these moments?
2. Charlie Curnow won the Coleman Medal and lost Carlton the match
As brutal as that sounds, the tale of the tape is savage.
Curnow had eight shots at goal for 2.5 and one snapped set shot that didn’t make the distance from 30 metres.
Two set shots were tough — one from outside 50 and one from 40 out on a tight-ish angle.
But squandered chances include the mid-air kick running into goal, when he had separation from Darcy Moore and could have gathered, and that early around-the-corner set-shot snap from 30m that never looked likely to make the distance.
He repeated the dose early in the last term with his hurried wide snap shot from a mark that would have extended the margin to 29 points.
Instead, Collingwood swept back into the game.
His quick snap shot in broken play with seven minutes on the clock would have put Carlton 22 points up, and, while it was pressured, it ended a day with two goals from eight shots.
Like Max King, he will one day take a finals series apart despite 2022 kicking woes but both he and McKay don’t quite know when to take a straight set shot and when to snap around the corner.
Curnow kicked 64.42 for the year but also had 11 complete misses.
Harry McKay, who kicked 2.3 for the day, kicked 45.31 for the year, plus 11 total misses so was no better than a 50-50 shot at goal all year.
3. Durability
Carlton chief executive Brian Cook admitted on Monday some of the club’s injury issues were bad luck, and some due to the more ballistic style of play they want to produce.
The Blues lost the fifth-most games to injury from their best 22, according to Champion Data.
They included Mitch McGovern (14), Zac Williams (13), Marc Pittonet (12), Jack Martin (nine), George Hewett (seven), Matt Kennedy (five), Matt Owies (five) and Jacob Weitering (four).
Certainly Sam Walsh’s back injury was a critical loss, which combined with Matt Kennedy’s lisfranc injury and George Hewett’s ongoing back troubles.
To lose three of the club’s five starting midfielders against Melbourne and still dominate in contested ball is an indictment and an opportunity.
Champion Data stats show no club since 1999 has won 54 more contested possessions than the opposition side and lost a game.
Cripps was out-of-this-world good, while Adam Cerra’s 27-possession, six-clearance, seven-tackle game showed he is exactly as advertised — a 22-year-old star of the future.
A question for next year — has Docherty entered the midfield rotation after another 29-possession six-clearance, 56-pressure point display?
But the injury list was ridiculously long all year as McGovern and Williams suffered high-grade soft tissue injuries, as Caleb Marchbank played just four AFL games.
Fitness boss Andrew Russell is contracted for next year and will remain to build a program that will always sustain contact injuries, but must minimise the soft-tissue concerns.
4. Jacob Weitering just wasn’t the same player when he returned from his shoulder injury in a team already short for intercept markers
In his seven games back, Weitering had four games without an intercept mark and took only nine in total.
He averaged only 61 ranking points, 11 disposals and one intercept mark, losing 31 per cent of his one-on-one contests.
That one-on-one stat is the 10th worst of the top 50 key position defenders.
He is a star and a full pre-season will re-establish as an elite defender, but can Marchbank get there after four games averaging 1.5 intercept marks and 9.3 possessions?
5. For all of Carlton’s late-game brain fades, the defence held up exceptionally well across the season
The Blues were fifth for points scored pre-bye, but 13th post bye.
But they had a rock solid defensive profile and remained sixth for points against post bye.
From round 13 onwards, despite the scoring profile dropping away, they were the fourth-hardest team to score against.
They will allow Liam Jones to leave for the Dogs so can McGovern play 15-plus games as an intercept marker?
Lachie Plowman played 15 games this year but Voss needs to decide if he has moved past him.
Lewis Young held up very well across 19 games and, after being secured for the loss of Sam Petrevski-Seton, it was a massive list management win.
But the best sides have at least two quality interceptors – Jeremy Howe and Darcy Moore (Collingwood), Jake Lever and Steven May (Melbourne), Dylan Grimes, Nick Vlastuin and Noah Balta (Richmond), Sam Taylor and Nick Haynes (GWS) — and the Blues still rely on McGovern’s durability to round out their back six.
6. The lost opportunities
You are never safe against Melbourne or Collingwood, but the round 20 game against Adelaide was a killer.
Adelaide beat Carlton up in close as they lost the contested possessions for only the third time this year as Curnow and McKay were mostly shut-out.
Ben Keays harassed Adam Saad with three goals and the loss ultimately cost the Blues their finals spot.
In Round 4, Gold Coast was white-hot and deserved its 30-point win.
Carlton ultimately went 2-2 in games under a goal after wins over Hawthorn (one point) and Port Adelaide (three points), but the Adelaide loss sunk them in the end.
7. Carlton ranked 11th for goals from small forwards this year, which gives Michael Voss huge room for improvement next season
Jesse Motlop (12 debut-season games) is a baby in football terms but averaged a goal a game, Matt Owies (31 games) is a high-pressure player averaging only 0.8 goals a game and Durdin (23 games) averaged two tackles and 0.7 of a goal.
Zac Fisher plays a different half forward role, but the small forwards need to develop synergy and increase their goal power.
They all have time on their side with Motlop’s form after being taken at pick 27 another big win.
8. Jack Martin
Martin was a nonfactor against Collingwood as Jack Ginnivan, Jamie Elliott and Beau McCreery all had moments to shine.
He never got his year together with calf issues, his longest run of matches was only six, and he averaged less than 10 possessions and kicked 12 goals in 12 games.
He will be 28 in January and time is running out for him to make an impact on the competition.
9. The list management decisions ahead
Carlton just isn’t interested in topping up with mid-ranked players, keen to immediately move on to recontracting McKay and Tom De Koning now that the season ends.
Curnow’s new deal, revealed by News Corp, means the Blues have Cerra, Hewett, Kennedy, Weitering and Saad contracted to 2025, Williams and Walsh to 2026 and Cripps to 2027.
Docherty and Motlop (both out in 2023) will both be options for early extensions.
The Blues want to go back to the draft but have to make decisions on Liam Stocker, Ed Curnow, Lachie Fogarty and David Cuningham.
Matt Cottrell will get another deal and Lochie O’Brien has been locked in on a two-year deal.
10. Voss has talked repeatedly about adding more layers to the game plan
Throughout the season, the Blues showed they could score from a dominant stoppage game and through cohesive ball movement, but losing five games in the final six matches showed it did not always stand up under pressure.
As David King showed on Fox Footy’s The First Crack, the Blues didn’t have a fat-side winger defending hard enough deep to allow Jacob Weitering to charge at Jamie Elliott.
They are small-margin wins that can save you games.
11. Heard anything from president Luke Sayers this year? Not a peep
It is just another example of the stability in administration with a strong chief executive, a board that is not eating its own and a strong football boss in Brad Lloyd.
Voss has stayed resolute in the moments of crisis, is beloved by the fans and will drive improvement over the summer.
It won’t stop anyone from feeling a sick feeling deep in the pit of their stomach across the entire summer, but it will give fans hope this is a platform to build instead of another false dawn.
Originally published as Wreck It Ralph: Where Carlton went wrong and what it needs to be a genuine contender
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