The Run Home: AFL ladder predictor and every finals contender analysed ahead of Round 21

The red-hot Magpies sit one game clear in third spot – but a double chance is far from locked in. We predict how week one of the finals could look.

Carlton needs at least one more win to play finals. Picture: Getty Images

The home stretch is here, with just three rounds left in the home-and-away season.

But the ladder is far from set, with teams still jostling for spots in the top-eight and top-four.

Here are our latest predictions on where the finals contenders will finish and why.

1. GEELONG (15-4, 135.5%)

TAB ODDS: Premiers: $3, Top 8: N/A, Top 4: $N/A

R21: St Kilda (GMHBA) W

R22: Gold Coast (Metricon) W

R23: West Coast (GMHBA) W

Predicted finish: 1st

The Cats are quite clearly the No. 1 seed heading towards September and look like entering finals on a monster 13-game winning streak. They have already won 10 straight matches and flexed their collective muscle against the Western Bulldogs on Saturday night, when eight unanswered goals in the third quarter set them on their way to a 28-point win. Patrick Dangerfield is back in fine form and Tom Stewart has returned from suspension. Ruckman Rhys Stanley (knee) is the only injury issue of note, which is a good place to be four weeks out from a qualifying final.

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Geelong big man Jonathon Ceglar fends off Tom Liberatore. Picture: Morgan Hancock/AFL Photos

2. MELBOURNE (14-5, 131.6%)

TAB ODDS: Premiers: $3.25, Top 8: N/A, Top 4: $1.05

R21: Collingwood (MCG) W

R22: Carlton (MCG) W

R23: Brisbane (Gabba) W

Predicted finish: 2nd

I had my doubts about the Demons last week, after they were pipped at the post by the Western Bulldogs. However, they went to Perth last Friday night and scored a convincing 46-point win over fellow top-eight side Fremantle – winning all four quarters. After a quiet patch in the middle part of the season, Kysaiah Pickett has kicked 11 goals in three weeks and having the pairing of Steven May and Jake Lever back in defence makes a big difference. Melbourne has still only won two of its past four games, but should be winning its final three matches now if it is going to stamp itself as a contender this season.

3. COLLINGWOOD (14-5, 106.2%)

TAB ODDS: Premier: $14, Top 8: N/A, Top 4: $2.35

R21: Melbourne (MCG) L

R22: Sydney (SCG) L

R23: Carlton (MCG) W

Predicted finish: 5th

Another week, another narrow win for the Magpies. This time it was by six points over Port Adelaide, which was remarkably Collingwood’s 10th victory on the trot. Despite a poor percentage, two more wins would likely be enough to hold onto a top-four spot. Or, alternatively, one more win and two Brisbane losses might do the job. The Magpies beat Melbourne by 26 points in their Queen’s Birthday clash, but will enter this week as underdogs. A loss this week would heap the pressure on the last two rounds – not that high pressure moments seem to have bothered Collingwood this year.

Swans Tom Papley and Errol Gulden celebrate during Saturday’s win over the Giants. Picture: Phil Hillyard

4. SYDNEY (13-6, 126.5%)

TAB ODDS: Premier: $7, Top 8: N/A, Top 4: $1.10

R21: North Melbourne (Marvel) W

R22: Collingwood (SCG) W

R23: St Kilda (Marvel) W

Predicted finish: 3rd

The Swans have won their past four matches and would be close to $1.01 to make that five in a row when they face bottom side North Melbourne this weekend. The Sydney forward line is firing – having scored over 100 points in three of the past four games – and the team’s defence has conceded an average of just 64 points a game over the past month. Something would have to go horribly wrong from here for Sydney to miss the top-four, considering the run home they have.

5. BRISBANE (13-6, 123.3%)

TAB ODDS: Premier: $12, Top 8: N/A, Top 4: $1.50

R21: Carlton (Gabba) W

R22: St Kilda (Marvel) W

R23: Melbourne (Gabba) L

Predicted finish: 4th

The Lions find themselves outside of the top-four for the first time since Round 2 and have a little bit of work to do to ensure they get back in. A seven-point loss to Richmond at the MCG on Sunday, after holding a 42-point lead midway through the second quarter, was a terribly disappointing result for Chris Fagan’s men. Brisbane faces three top-eight opponents in the final three rounds, but a return to the Gabba this week should help it get back on the winner’s list. If Collingwood wins only one more game, two more wins should be enough for the Lions to earn the double chance. But if the Magpies keep winning, the Friday night clash against Melbourne in the final round could be key.

6. FREMANTLE (12-6-1, 114.9%)

TAB ODDS: Premier: $26, Top 8: $1.01, Top 4: $4.25

R21: Western Bulldogs (Marvel) L

R22: West Coast (Optus) W

R23: GWS (Manuka) W

Predicted finish: 6th

The Dockers have sat in the top-four for much of the season, but fell out two weeks ago and now have little hope of getting back in. Fremantle stunk it up against Melbourne in Perth last Friday night, kicking just five goals in a 46-point loss. Offensively, the Dockers have been struggling to score over recent weeks and defensively they have dropped off since the first half of the season. Regardless, you can just about lock in wins the last two weeks against two bottom-three sides. However, Fremantle will have its work cut out against the Bulldogs under the roof at Marvel Stadium this Saturday.

Carlton’s loss to the Crows could prove costly. Picture: Mark Brake/Getty Images

7. CARLTON (12-7, 112.6%)

TAB ODDS: Premier: $26, Top 8: $1.15, Top 4: $21

R21: Brisbane (Gabba) L

R22: Melbourne (MCG) L

R23: Collingwood (MCG) L

Predicted finish: 9th

The Blues simply had to go to Adelaide and take care of the Crows on Saturday night – but they didn’t. And that 29-point loss has now put some serious pressure on Michael Voss’ side. It is hard to think a team that started the year 10-2 could miss finals, but that is a reality the Blues are now facing if they cannot pinch one more win in a tough run home. Since Round 11, Carlton has not been able to string two wins together and has gone 4-5. Brisbane has won 17 of its past 20 games at the Gabba which makes this week’s assignment tough and reigning premier Melbourne looms large the following week. Carlton could well be playing for a spot in finals on the final Sunday of the home-and-away season against Collingwood – a team it lost to by four points in Round 11.

8. ST KILDA (11-8, 104.3%)

TAB ODDS: Premier: $101, Top 8: $4.50, Top 4: N/A

R21: Geelong (GMHBA) L

R22: Brisbane (Marvel) L

R23: Sydney (Marvel) L

Predicted finish: 10th

Saints coach Brett Ratten thinks the football public has been too harsh in judging his side.

However, Saturday’s 12-point win over bottom-six side Hawthorn wasn’t worthy of a lot of praise. It was an ugly game in the first half and the St Kilda coughed up a 44-point lead during the third quarter to survive a late scare from a fast-finishing Hawks side. Yes, the Saints are in the top-eight for now, but they are not playing well enough to stay in there for long given they play three teams above them in the final three weeks. Given their poor percentage, Ratten’s side would likely need two more wins to qualify for September.

Noah Balta as the final siren sounds on Sunday. Picture: Darrian Traynor/Getty Images

9. RICHMOND (10-8-1, 114%)

TAB ODDS: Premier: $23, Top 8: $1.90, Top 4: N/A

R21: Port Adelaide (AO) L

R22: Hawthorn (MCG) W

R23: Essendon (MCG) W

Predicted finish: 8th

Many – including myself – were ready to put a line through Richmond last week. But after an upset win over Brisbane on Sunday, the Tigers have picked themselves back up off the canvas. In the biggest comeback of the season, a spirited Richmond recovered from a 42-point deficit during the second quarter to knock off the Lions at the MCG. Two more wins might be enough to return to finals – if Carlton does not win another game. But if the Tigers don’t want to rely on other results, they must knock of Port Adelaide this Saturday night.

10. WESTERN BULLDOGS (10-9, 109.4%)

TAB ODDS: Premier: $34, Top 8: $2, Top 4: N/A

R21: Fremantle (Marvel) W

R22: GWS (Marvel) W

R23: Hawthorn (UTAS) W

Predicted finish: 7th

The Bulldogs were shown up as more pretenders than contenders against Geelong in a 28-point loss on Saturday night, when the Cats kicked 13 goals to two during the middle part of the game. However, finals hopes for Luke Beveridge’s side are still alive, with a relatively favourable run home. The key to those hopes will be beating Fremantle this Saturday. Lose that, and the Bulldogs are going to be heavily reliant on other results going their way in the final two rounds to qualify. But if they can beat the Dockers, the path back to September looks relatively clear with games against bottom-six sides GWS and Hawthorn to finish the home-and-away season.

Originally published as The Run Home: AFL ladder predictor and every finals contender analysed ahead of Round 21