Run Home: Where your team could place in frantic finish to AFL season

With eight teams in the race for two finals spots every match is important — but some are more imortant than others. See how the ladder could look after Round 23.

Chris Cavanagh

7 min read

August 5, 2021 - 2:56PM

News Corp Australia Sports Newsroom

Essendon needs to win its last three games to be a finals chance this year. Picture: Michael Klein

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For the first time in a decade, it looks like it will take only a 50-50 winning record for a team to play finals football this year.

There is even a chance that Greater Western Sydney could still play finals if it reaches 10 wins and a draw from 22 games.

While the top four now looks largely set heading into the final three rounds, the race for the final two spots in the top-eight is well and truly on.

Here’s how the final three rounds could play out for your team.

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1. WESTERN BULLDOGS

Record: 15-4, 142%
R21: Essendon (W)
R22: Hawthorn (W)
R23: Port Adelaide (W)

WE SAY: The Bulldogs did what they needed to do against Adelaide on Saturday with a solid 49-point win and don’t look like giving up top spot on the ladder anytime soon. If they win their last three games — as they will be favourites to do — they will secure the first minor premiership in the club’s history and head into finals on a six-game winning streak.

PREDICTED FINISH: 1st
TAB PREMIERSHIP ODDS: $4.25

Geelong is the premiership favourite, despite sitting second on the ladder. Picture: Getty Images

2. GEELONG

Record: 15-4, 132.6%
R21: GWS Giants (W)
R22: St Kilda (W)
R23: Melbourne (W)

WE SAY: The Cats might be second on the ladder, but they have further firmed as premiership favourite after a 20-point win over North Melbourne on Saturday. They say defence wins premierships and the Cats have conceded scores of 42, 57, 31, 44 and 57 points over the past five weeks. GWS won’t be a pushover, nor will Melbourne in the final round, but, at this stage, you’d be tipping the Cats to win their last three games and hold on to second spot.

PREDICTED FINISH: 2nd
TAB PREMIERSHIP ODDS: $3.75

3. MELBOURNE

Record: 14-1-4, 131.5%
R21: West Coast (W)
R22: Adelaide (W)
R23: Geelong (L)

WE SAY: The Demons steadied the ship a little against the Gold Coast Suns on Sunday, scoring a powerful 98-point win after having the wobbles a little bit over the previous six weeks. West Coast in Perth this week shapes as a massive game. The Demons need two more wins to guarantee themselves a top-four finish and would not want to rely on beating Geelong in Round 23 to make the cut. The Eagles were woeful against Collingwood at the MCG on Saturday but are generally a different prospect on their home turf, where they have gone 7-3 this year.

PREDICTED FINISH: 3rd
TAB PREMIERSHIP ODDS: $5

4. PORT ADELAIDE

Record: 14-5, 121.8%
R21: Adelaide (W)
R22: Carlton (W)
R23: Western Bulldogs (L)
WE SAY: A hard-fought 27-point win over GWS on Sunday, combined with Brisbane’s drop-off, means things would have to go horribly wrong for the Power to miss the top four now. They sit one game and percentage clear inside the top-four, with games against Adelaide (16th) and Carlton (12th) in the next two weeks. Win them and they’re in, regardless of the result against the ladder-leading Western Bulldogs in Round 23.

PREDICTED FINISH: 4th
TAB PREMIERSHIP ODDS: $8

Sydney is riding a five-game winning streak and has a favourable run home. Picture: Michael Klein

5. SYDNEY

Record: 13-6, 118%
R21: St Kilda (W)
R22: North Melbourne (W)
R23: Gold Coast (W)

WE SAY:The Young Bloods are ticking along nicely, having won their past five matches on the trot. Sydney now looks like heading into finals having won eight straight matches, given John Longmire’s side will be favoured to win their final three games against a trio of bottom-six sides. Top-four hopes have faded, though, with the Swans sitting one game and percentage behind fourth-placed Port Adelaide and six points behind third-placed Melbourne. Given their draw, it is unlikely either the Power or Demons will lose at least two of their last three games to open up a spot for Sydney — but you never know.

PREDICTED FINISH: 5th
TAB PREMIERSHIP ODDS: $8

6. BRISBANE LIONS

Record: 12-7, 124.6%
R21: Fremantle (L)
R22: Collingwood (W)
R23: West Coast Eagles (W)

WE SAY: The Lions have lost three of their past four matches and look cooked. While they only fell to 17th-placed Hawthorn by 12 points on Sunday, they had trailed that match by as much as 53 points. That is not the kind of form you want to be in heading into finals, and the top-four hopes of Chris Fagan’s side are now shot after the Lions had filled one of those spots for most of the year. On current form, Fremantle is a big chance to inflict another loss on the Lions in Perth this weekend. But you’d still back Brisbane to win its final two games as it stands.

PREDICTED FINISH: 6th
TAB PREMIERSHIP ODDS: $11

7. WEST COAST

Record: 10-9, 95.9%
R21: Melbourne (L)
R22: Fremantle (W)
R23: Brisbane (L)

WE SAY: West Coast’s Round 20 performance against Collingwood was nothing short of embarrassing as the Eagles again raised the white flag on the road in a 45-point loss to the 14th-placed team. They might not make any impact in finals this year, but, amazingly, the Eagles are still a good chance to get there. History tells us that West Coast has won its past 11 games against Fremantle dating back to 2015. If it can snag a win in the Round 22 derby, it will likely finish in the top-eight even without beating top-six sides Melbourne (home) or Brisbane (away).

PREDICTED FINISH: 7th
TAB PREMIERSHIP ODDS: $41

Andrew Brayshaw helped lead Fremantle to a win over Richmond that leaves the Dockers right in the finals race with three rounds to play. Picture: Getty Images

8. FREMANTLE

Record: 9-10, 90.9%
R21: Brisbane Lions (W)
R22: West Coast Eagles (L)
R23: St Kilda (W)

WE SAY: The Dockers climbed back into the top-eight and right back into finals contention on the back of a spirited four-point win over Richmond on Sunday. The run home isn’t easy, but the Dockers only need two more wins to return to finals for the first time since 2015 and that is completely plausible. On current form, you’d have to lean towards Fremantle beating a struggling Brisbane in Perth this weekend. Fremantle’s recent form is better than West Coast’s, but the Dockers haven’t beaten the Eagles since 2015 so it would be hard to back them in the Round 22 derby. Then comes a St Kilda side in the final round which is out of finals contention. Win all three and the Dockers are likely to finish seventh. But two wins seems more likely, which could leave them in eighth spot.

PREDICTED FINISH: 8th
TAB PREMIERSHIP ODDS: $151

9. GWS GIANTS

Record: 8-1-10, 95.1%
R21: Geelong (L)
R22: Richmond (W)
R23: Carlton (W)

WE SAY: The Giants put up a good fight against Port Adelaide on Sunday night but ultimately fell 27 points short. That was a third loss in four games and leaves a finals berth looking unlikely. You sense it would take a miracle for GWS to knock off Geelong this weekend. But, even if the Giants lose to the Cats, they would be an outside chance of sneaking into eighth spot with just 10 wins and a draw if they win their final two games. They would just need Fremantle to lose at least two more games for the spot to open up. We’re not tipping that at this stage, but it’s possible.

PREDICTED FINISH: 9th
TAB PREMIERSHIP ODDS: $101

10. ESSENDON

Record: 8-11, 102.7%
R21: Western Bulldogs (L)
R22: Gold Coast Suns (W)
R23: Collingwood (W)

WE SAY: The Bombers were very close to causing an upset against Sydney on Sunday, but a seven-point loss was, ultimately, very costly for their finals hopes. Essendon is now one game outside the top-eight and will be a long outsider against ladder-leader Western Bulldogs this weekend. You’d tip the Bombers to win their final two games, but that’s not going to be enough unless Fremantle and Greater Western Sydney both fall over and lose at least two of their final three matches. Of course, if Essendon did upset the Bulldogs, and win its last three games, its healthy percentage could see it finish as high as seventh. There’s hope, but it’s slim.

PREDICTED FINISH: 10th
TAB PREMIERSHIP ODDS: $151

Richmond would need to win its last three games and rely on other results to play finals football this year. Picture: Getty Images

11. RICHMOND

Record: 8-11, 98%
R21: North Melbourne (W)
R22: GWS (L)
R23: Hawthorn (W)

WE SAY: It’s hard not to conclude anything other than it’s over for Richmond this year after Sunday’s four-point loss to Fremantle. The reigning premiers have now lost six of their past seven matches and their scoring power has completely dried up. If the Tigers did win their final three games, they could still finish as high as seventh spot. But based on current form, it is hard to see that happening. Even beating bottom-two sides North Melbourne and Hawthorn is no certainty.

PREDICTED FINISH: 11th
TAB PREMIERSHIP ODDS: $67

12. CARLTON

Record: 8-11, 94.1%
R21: Gold Coast Suns (W)
R22: Port Adelaide (L)
R23: GWS Giants (L)

WE SAY: The Blues should beat a struggling Gold Coast this week, but that’s where the win tally for the season might end. Mathematically, Carlton is still a finals chance, but they would need to win all three and rely on a lot of other results given they currently sit one game outside of the top-eight.

PREDICTED FINISH: 12th
TAB PREMIERSHIP ODDS: $151

13. ST KILDA

Record: 8-11, 85.9%
R21: Sydney (L)
R22: Geelong (L)
R23: Fremantle (L)

WE SAY: A poor percentage and a tough run home means St Kilda is realistically no chance of playing finals footy this year. But, mathematically, it's still possible. A loss to Carlton last weekend hurt, and with three current top-eight opponents to come, you couldn’t pencil in any more wins in what has been a disappointing year for the Saints.

PREDICTED FINISH: 13th

TAB PREMIERSHIP ODDS: $501